FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/99 - TAJIKISTAN* (29 February)
Agricultural production on large state farms continues to decline but supply is buffered by production on lands farmed privately or leased from the state. In December 1998 a law was passed allocating another 28 000 hectares for private use. This is too late to effectively plant winter grains. Nevertheless, the outlook for the 1999 wheat crop is satisfactory so far and, given normal weather, the 1999 cereal harvest could be somewhat higher than the 510 000 tonnes estimated for 1998.
The cereal import requirement for 1998/99 (July/June) is tentatively estimated at about 370 000 tonnes of wheat and some rice. Food aid pledges amount to some 52 000 tonnes to date. The balance will have to be mobilized commercially, mainly in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
GDP growth was positive in 1998, but the outlook for this year may be affected by low export prices of aluminium and cotton and repercussions of the economic crisis in the Russian Federation. An appeal was launched in December 1998 for a total of US$24.8 million, to respond to the humanitarian and rehabilitation needs of over half a million vulnerable people during 1999. The appeal includes projects to enhance basic food production and food security as well as food for the populations at risk.
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