An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which recently visited the country estimated total 1999 cereal production at 3.24 million tonnes, about 16 percent below last year�s bumper output of 3.86 million tonnes. The reduction was due to low rainfall and an outbreak of pests. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at a record 1.1 million tonnes, almost all wheat. Commercial cereal imports are estimated at 800 000 tonnes, leaving a deficit of 323 000 tonnes. The emergency food aid requirement (including food- for-work and food-for-seed), estimated at 97 000 tonnes, is already in the pipeline, leaving 226 000 tonnes to be covered by programme food aid.
A recent UN Inter-Agency Mission to Panjshir Valley found that nearly 100 000 people have been displaced by the recent escalation of factional fighting. With deteriorating weather conditions and dwindling food stocks the Mission urged urgent international assistance. Food aid is being distributed to about 8 000 vulnerable households in the central highlands and to some 21 000 people in the north-eastern province of Badakhshan. An estimated 63 000 returnees from Iran and Pakistan are also receiving food assistance. Vulnerable groups are being provided with bread through urban bakeries and through institutional feeding programmes in hospitals, orphanages and health centres.
1999 grain production is forecast at only 270 000 tonnes, compared to 326 000 tonnes in 1998. The area sown to winter wheat declined and autumn and winter precipitation was below normal. Spring conditions were also not good in some areas. In 1999/2000 the cereal import requirement is estimated to increase to nearly 400 000 tonnes. Against this requirement food aid pledges of roughly 100 000 tonnes have been made. The balance is expected to be imported commercially.
The country has been adversely affected by the financial crisis in the Russian Federation, its largest export market, and falling employment and remittances. Some 113 000 people continue to need targeted food assistance. There remains little scope at present for phasing out humanitarian assistance and WFP will continue to provide food aid for relief and recovery to refugees and the most vulnerable. Assistance will focus on community based food-for-work activities for vulnerable groups who are able to work, supporting economic and social development. The programme will have duration of three years and will be reviewed annually.
Grain production is forecast to continue declining. 1999 grain production is projected to fall to about 900 000 tonnes, from the official estimate of 1 036 000 tonnes produced in 1998, due to below-average planting, a dry autumn and competition from cheaper grain imports from neighbouring countries. Ongoing land privatization and dismemberment of State farms has led to an increase in household food production (notably potatoes and animal products) at the expense of cash crops. The reduction in output also reflects the lack of viable marketing channels for produce as urban areas tend to be supplied from imports.
By April 1999 some 1.1 million hectares or 86 percent of the available land had been privatized and 84 percent of citizens entitled to land had been allocated plots. Yet only 149 000 hectares is actually reported to be farmed by private farmers.
Providing the production forecast materialises, the cereal import requirement is estimated at about 500 000 tonnes, which will be met commercially. Limited food aid is required for vulnerable groups, and pledges amount to 11 000 tonnes of cereals to date. WFP will continue its current programme in support of the most vulnerable IDPs, while income generation activities will be expanded. The programme will be reviewed annually and has a tentative duration of three to five years.
In late August, floods caused by heavy rains affected some 50 000 families in northern and central parts, displacing many households. The worst affected areas were around Sirajganj, Kazipur, Belkuchi, Chowhali and Tarash. Although the full extent of damage to crops is yet to be determined, so far an estimated 10 000 hectares of Aman paddy and 200 hectares of seedbeds were submerged by flood water. In addition the floods exacerbated problems of soil erosion. Earlier floods in July also resulted in loss of lives and damage to property.
The latest estimate of boro (spring) rice production by the Ministry of Agriculture is a record 10.3 million tonnes, some 26 percent higher than the previous record in 1997. The main reasons for higher boro production were increased area, adequate fertiliser supplies, low insect damage and favourable growing conditions overall. Aggregate 1998/99 rice production is now put at 19.65 million tonnes.
The overall food situation in the country remains satisfactory. However, emergency food assistance continues to be provided to vulnerble groups affected by the worst floods in decades last year.
Continuous heavy rain in late July/early August together with high water levels in the Mekong River, caused heavy flooding in south western part of the country. The provinces of Kampot and Sihanouk were particularly affected, where damage to infrastructure is reported. Overall the level of rainfall in July was higher than last year and the average for the past 30 years. This year there was a significant increase in the area of double crop rice, whilst that of maize was above average. Notwithstanding any flood damage that may have occurred last month, the prospects for double crop rice, currently being harvested, are favourable in view of good rainfall overall. Land preparation for wet season crops is underway in parts of the country.
Rice accounts for some 84 percent of annual food crop production and is planted on around 90 percent of cropped area, mainly in the Central Mekong Basin and Delta and the Tonle Sap Plain. Contrary to fears of reduced rice output in 1998/99, due to drought during the last wet season, total paddy production for the year was estimated at 3.52 million tonnes, some 3 percent above 1997/98 production and 19 percent above the five year average. The target for 1999/00 has been set at between 3.5-4.0 million tonnes.
Despite a satisfactory food supply situation overall, a sizeable section of the population remains vulnerable to food shortages. To meet the needs of these people, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply mission, earlier this year, assessed that 40 000 tonnes of rice in food assistance would be needed in addition to varying amounts of fish and vegetable oil. These needs were to be met through a WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation.
Drought conditions in parts of the north seriously damaged the maize crop, particularly in the provinces of Shanxi and Hebei and parts of Henan. In some areas, this represents the third year in succession that the crop has been affected by drought. Parts of southern Henan, received less than 90 mm of rain from June to mid August, compared to an average of around 550mm for the three months in normal years. Scattered light rain in late August brought little relief to these areas. Production in other important producing areas, however, remained unaffected and overall the extent of damage is less widespread than the severe drought in 1997. As a result, official reports anticipate maize production to remain similar to the 125 million tonnes produced last year. In contrast, cool, wet weather affected the rice crop in parts of the south, with heavy rainfall between late June and mid-August delaying maturing. In regions south of the Yangtze river rainfall was between 30 and 300 percent higher than normal. In late August/early September, typhoon Sam and a tropical storm brought prolonged heavy rain in the south, which resulted in damage and a loss of lives. More heavy rain and storms are anticipated.
The grain production target for 1999 is 490 million tonnes (including roots and tubers) similar to 1998 production. In view of reduced winter wheat production, which was affected by drought last year, to meet the target there will be increased emphasis on rice and maize production.
Aggregate 1999 wheat and barley output is estimated at 106 000 tonnes, some 63 percent above last year�s reduced crop but 6 percent lower than the five year average. Wheat imports in 1999/2000 (May/April) are forecast at 95 000 tonnes. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, similar to last year.
The 1998 grain and pulse harvest is expected to be about 80 000 tonnes or 10 percent larger than last year's 800 000 tonnes. The 1999 wheat harvest is now officially forecast to reach 200 000 tonnes, remaining the same as last year's poor level. Steadily rising wheat prices confirm poor harvest prospects but also reflect the increase from 0 to 20 percent in VAT for imported wheat. Rising prices and the consequent increase of the bread price by 15 percent adversely affect the economically vulnerable, particularly in the wake of the Russian financial crisis. Humanitarian assistance to vulnerable groups will also remain necessary in 1999/2000.
In 1999/2000 the cereal import requirement is tentatively forecast to increase to 530 000 tonnes, mostly wheat. Against this requirement, food aid allocations announced amount to 79 000 tonnes to date.
WFP has planned to provide 18 000 tonnes of food aid to 180 000 vulnerable people and targeted food-for-work schemes over a one-year period which commenced in July 1999 with a new phase of the protracted relief and recovery operation. The emphasis in the new phase is to increase the number of food-for-work beneficiaries to assist vulnerable people to meet their food needs under the current conditions of decreasing purchasing power.
Flooding in early September in eastern and northern regions may affect winter (Kharif) food production. Although normally by September, monsoon rains begin to recede, this year the rains have continued longer than expected. The overall pattern of rainfall has also been erratic with parts much drier than normal, which has led to localised drought, and others with excess rainfall.
The worst affected states by low rainfall, where crops have been stressed, include Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan . Crops most likely to be affected included groundnut, rice and soybeans. However the overall affect on rice may be offset somewhat by an increase in area planted this season, mostly in West Bengal, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana. In non irrigated areas that have been affected by below normal rains this year, overall rice prospects will depend heavily on rains for the remainder of September.
Erratic and below-normal rainfall has meant that rice production may not reach the record 86 million tonnes envisaged earlier in the season. The 1999 estimate of wheat production has been revised up to a record 73.5 million tonnes from 72.8 million tonnes in June. This is 7.6 million tonnes or 11.5 percent higher than 1998. The previous record for wheat production was in 1997, when 69 million tonnes were produced. The official estimate for the 1998/99 rice crop has also been revised up due to an upward revision in the area estimate. The 1998/99 area estimate has been revised to 44.5 million hectares and production to 84.7 million tonnes. The estimate for aggregate 1998/99 food grain production is now put at 202.5 million tonnes, including pulses, over a million tonnes higher than forecast earlier
In view of the record wheat crop and high support prices, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) procured a record 14 million tonnes of wheat this year. This raised stocks to a record 22.2 million tonnes by the beginning of July, 55 percent above the Governments minimum stock level. The comparatively high cost of domestic wheat, combined with falling world prices, however, have meant that exports remain unattractive. Moreover, the differences in world and domestic prices (including transport from producing areas) has also meant that wheat imports increased in August, particularly in southern parts. Currently the government is offering wheat to southern flour millers at around $173/tonne, compared to an imported wheat cost of between $120-140/tonne. The Food Ministry also anticipates higher rice procurement in the current 1999/00 marketing year than in 1998/99 to replenish stocks.
Food production is heavily influenced by the pattern of monsoon rains which have an important bearing on performance during the main (wet) and secondary (dry) seasons. The wet season normally extends from October to March and produces some 60 percent of the country�s annual rice crop and half of its maize, soybean and groundnuts. The dry season covers April to September during which most of the remaining annual crop is produced. Scattered, light showers across the main agricultural areas of Java in August, helped maintain adequate moisture supplies for the second rice crop, harvested in late August/September.
Overall, satisfactory weather this year and anticipated recovery in the economy, suggest improved prospects for rice production in 1999, compared to last year. In addition, reflecting investment and improvement of irrigation facilities, supported by the Government drive toward improved provision of credit and inputs, an increase in yields is also expected
Current projection for 1999 paddy production stands at 49.5 million tonnes, similar to the final estimate for 1998. The rice import requirement for the 1999/2000 marketing year (April- March), is estimated at around 3 million tonnes. In the period January to end-August, the National Food Logistics Agency, BULOG, procured 2.28 million tonnes of rice, nearly 800 000 tonnes higher than the earlier projection of 1.5 million tonnes.
The lives and food security of large numbers of displaced people have been seriously threatened by escalating civil unrest and killings in East Timor, in the aftermath of the vote for independence on 30 August 1999.
Although a resolution has been passed by the UN Security Council for the deployment of a peace keeping force, large numbers of the population still remain at considerable risk of violence, whilst hundreds of thousands have been displaced. In view of difficulties in accessing the province the full extent of the humanitarian crisis is not know. However, available estimates indicate that several thousand people have been killed whilst between 300 000 - 400 000 have been internally displaced. The crisis has left more than a quarter of the population, of around 900 000, cut off from food supplies and drinking water and at risk of starvation. As widespread concerns over their precarious situation mount, there is urgent need for international food and humanitarian assistance. The security situation, however, still remains dangerous, preventing urgent food and medical supplies from being transported to areas and population groups in dire need. In the interim before the security situation allows more extensive humanitarian operations to begin the UN and other aid agencies have begun urgent air drops of food and basic supplies to areas considered most at need. Earlier civil disturbances between 1977-1979, following forced re- location of the local population, also led to large scale food shortages, which resulted in large numbers of deaths.
Although the precise number of vulnerable people and food needs cannot be determined at this stage, there is little doubt that large scale food and agricultural rehabilitation assistance will be needed as soon as the security situation improves to allow humanitarian operations. Such assistance is likely to be required for the remainder of 1999 and possibly through next year. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is planned to the province as soon as the security situation allows.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (6 September)
The worst drought in 30 years severely affected agricultural production. Due to lack of rain since last December and reduced snow precipitation during winter, crops were severely affected by reduced soil moisture and low water reserves in irrigation reservoirs. The drought affected both rainfed and irrigated agriculture and also livestock, which provide an important livelihood for a large number of rural households. The worst affected provinces were in the west and north and include Zanjan Ardabil, Kermanshel, Gilan, Lorestan and Marchasi.
Consequently, domestic wheat production fell by 25 percent from around 12 million tonnes expected to around 9 million tonnes, whilst latest government estimates indicate that the reduction in paddy, being harvested, will be around 20 percent from an expected 2.8 million tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes. Barley output is expected to fall by around 24 percent to around 2.5 million tonnes. As a result of the shortfall in crop production, imports are likely to be appreciably higher this year. Official reports indicate that already this year, the country has imported (contracted) 5.6 million tonnes of wheat, since March, up 2.6 million tonnes on total imports in the last marketing year, in addition to 800 000 tonnes of rice.
A severe drought coupled with serious shortages of essential agricultural inputs and the widespread pest and weed infestations have adversely affected 1999 winter crops. Nearly 1.2 million hectares under cereals, about 46 percent of total cultivated area, have been severely damaged. The drought also caused serious damage to livestock, already weakened by foot-and-mouth disease.
The UN Secretary- General has approved the distribution plan for the sixth phase of the �Oil-for-food� agreement in May, allowing Iraq to sell up to US$5.26 billion of oil over six months, to buy food, medicine and health supplies, and for emergency repairs to infrastructure. Despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of the agreement, health and nutritional problems remain widespread in many parts. A recent survey by UNICEF found that child mortality rates have more than doubled in south and central parts since 1990. The drought is anticipated to exacerbate existing food supply problems in the country.
Due to a severe drought that affected several countries in the Near East, output of the recently harvested 1999 wheat crop, is estimated at 152 000 tonnes, about 10 percent below last year. Cereal imports in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.6 million tonnes.
In August, moderate to heavy rainfall increased moisture supplies but reduced the level of sun for filling rice. Generally favourable weather conditions throughout the season, suggest that rice production this year is likely to be above average.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that the worst drought in decades seriously damaged cereal and horticultural crops. The livestock sector was also affected and many sheep farms face financial ruin, as costs increased and products diminished in quality and quantity. An outbreak of foot and mouth disease also exacerbated drought- induced losses.
The Mission forecast the lowest recorded domestic cereal harvest at 13 000 tonnes in 1999. At this level, only about 0.6 percent of domestic consumption needs, instead of the normal 10 percent, will be met. The Mission estimated a total cereal import requirement of 1.94 million tonnes comprising 742 000 tonnes of wheat, 725 000 tonnes of barley, 370 000 tonnes of maize and 99 000 tonnes of rice for the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June). About 80 percent of the requirement is anticipated to be commercial, leaving a deficit of 387 000 tonnes to be covered by emergency and programme food aid. Some 100 000 tonnes have already been pledged. An Emergency Operation for food assistance to 180 000 vulnerable people, for US$429 000 for a period of nine months was approved by WFP in July 1999.
Overall growing conditions for 1999 grain crops have been satisfactory and the harvest is expected to recover from the drought reduced level of 7.3 million tonnes (FAO estimate) in 1998. Good rainfall this winter increased soil moisture reserves after last year's drought and most major areas have received adequate rains this spring and summer. However, some less important producing areas, such as Pavlodar, East and West Kazakhstan experienced dry conditions and some locust damage. Economic problems have resulted in a further reduction in the grain area sown, from 13.4 million hectares in 1998 to 11.4 million hectares. Given the chronic shortage of fuel and financial problems on farm, it is uncertain if the entire area planted will be harvested. Early harvest returns confirm better yields than last year. Provided the harvested area approaches 11 million hectares (compared to 11.4 million hectares last year), FAO tentatively forecasts 1999 grain production at around 9 million tonnes, including 7 million tonnes of wheat. Locusts laid eggs on some 9 million hectares, of which less than one quarter has been treated. Crop damage to this year's crop was limited as the locusts were already mature when they infested wheat fields. However, with uncontrolled breeding this year, next year's harvest could be at risk.
If the forecast production materializes, the country could export about 2.5 million tonnes of cereals in 1999/2000.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (6 September)
Heavy rains and flooding at the end of July, exacerbated by Typhoon Olga, flooded an estimated 50 000 hectares of farmland, mainly paddy. The worst affected provinces were Kyonggi-do and Kangwon-do. Official estimates indicate that 28 people were killed, whilst a large number of livestock, including nearly 2 million poultry and 200 000 cattle and hogs, were also lost.
Approximately 1.05 million hectares of paddy were cultivated this year and despite the floods earlier, milled rice production of around 5.1 million tonnes, similar to last year is in prospect. Harvesting of rice will begin in October. Overall, rice acreage is declining in the country as more land is made available to infrastructure and urban development. Any future expansion will come mainly from marginal and reclaimed land, including land subject to flooding. Yields in these areas will be below average and highly dependant upon weather.
Closing rice stocks at the end of the 1999 marketing year in October are projected at around 983 000 tonnes, a relative increase of around 178 000 tonnes on last year.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (7 September)
Natural disasters from 1995 to 1997 and economic problems since the early 1990s, which have seriously affected national capacity to import food, essential inputs and energy, have severely undermined food security in DPR Korea. Efforts by the country to redress chronic food problems through intensive management of agriculture have had limited long term benefits in view of the scale of the problem and its root causes. This year, reduced rainfall at the beginning of the crop season in May/June, heavy rainfall in late July/ early August and below-normal rainfall in the latter part of August, resulted in some damage and may reduce potential yields.
Even if weather conditions remain favourable till the rice harvest in October, however, overall cereal production will remain well below needs as productivity remains highly constrained by lack of land and sufficient fertiliser and energy for mechanisation and irrigation on which the sector depends heavily. In view of the scale and depth of the problem, and in order to help the country attain greater food security, therefore, both short and long term measures, with international support, continue to be required.
In the last few years, the large- scale food shortages have resulted in chronic nutritional problems in the population at large, which will have long term consequences. A nutrition survey last year, by UN agencies, indicated that moderate and severe stunting, affected approximately 62 percent of children surveyed, while the incidence of moderate and severe underweight, or low weight for age was approximately 61 percent. The incidence of stunting is likely to remain high, irrespective of remedial nutritional actions now, though nutritional supplements could reduce wasting which is also widely observed. Differences in food consumption are also emerging, with some population groups, such as families receiving international food assistance and/or agricultural support, in a better position to cope with food shortages than people in mountainous areas and in families of industrial workers, especially in non-agricultural areas. Although WFP is responding to these concerns by targeting more beneficiaries in the north-east and increasing rations, beneficiary cover and food for work programmes in these areas, future targeting needs to be refined further to reflect geographical and demographic. So far this marketing year the country has received some 345 000 tonnes in food assistance.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is planned to visit the country in October, to assess the final 1999 harvest and food supply prospects for the next (1999/2000) marketing year.
The outlook for 1999 grain production is satisfactory. Conditions have been generally favourable this year and somewhat better average yields than last year could offset the gradual shift from grain to industrial and other foodcrops. 1999 grain production is tentatively projected at 1.6 million tonnes, including 1.2 million tonnes of wheat.
Provided the 1999 harvest forecast materialises, cereal imports, including food aid pledges amounting to 61 000 tonnes, in 1999/2000 are provisionally estimated at about 126 000 tonnes, mainly wheat. At the same time the country also exports wheat to neighbouring Uzbekistan (in payment for gas) and Tajikistan.
The country has good agricultural potential and agriculture plays a dominant role in the economy, accounting for nearly 50 percent of employment and GDP and almost 40 percent of foreign exchange earnings. However, salaries and purchasing power remain very low. In addition, the economic slowdown and inflation in the wake of the financial crisis in Russia in 1998 affected vulnerable groups. A referendum sanctioned the sale and private ownership of land but the Land Code, signed in May 1999 includes a 5-year moratorium on the sale of land. A Law on using land as a mortgage tool was also adopted. When activated, this law would enable farmers to pledge land in security for machinery and current inputs.
Rain in late August, boosted moisture supplies for rice, following a reduction in monsoon activity in recent weeks, which provided sunnier weather for rice development but reduced soil moisture supplies. The south west monsoon season is from May to September. 1998/99 paddy production is estimated at 1.77 million tonnes, some 21 percent above the five year average and moderately higher than the previous year.
For vulnerable sectors of the population, project food aid continues to be needed to support well-targeted project interventions in areas affected by reduced rice production in 1998/99. Based on earlier FAO/WFP estimates 251 000 people needed around 12 000 tonnes of assistance this year for an average duration of 4 months. So far some 8 000 tonnes have been pledged and delivered.
The output of 1999 wheat and barley is estimated at 62 000 tonnes, about the same as last year. Wheat imports in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.5 million tonnes.
Unseasonably heavy showers in late August/early September, boosted moisture supplies for crops across the country, but caused local flooding. The floods resulted in some deaths and required the evacuation of an estimated 2 000 people in Penang and Kedah. The current south west monsoon is expected to end by mid-September to be followed by an inter monsoon period before the onset of the north east monsoon which is likely to begin by mid-November. During the inter monsoon period, the country is expected to receive near normal or slightly below normal rainfall. Information from the meteorological department indicates that most parts of the country are expected to have normal to above normal rainfall in November and December 1999, to coincide with ongoing La Nina conditions, which are likely to become more intense at the end of the year and are expected to persist till the early part of 2000. The Ministry of Agriculture also announced recently that certain types of fragrant paddy would be destroyed, if planted, due to the risk of blast and neck rot disease. Paddy production in 1998, was estimated at slightly below average 2 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the country's main staple, wheat, will commence in October. However, productivity and production remain constrained by various problems in the agricultural sector largely as result of the transition from a centrally planned economy to one which is market oriented. In 1998, poor weather and continuing problems in the sector resulted in a further decline in cereal production. Wheat production declined to around 195 000 tonnes, the lowest level in 3 decades, some 18 percent below 1997 and 34 percent below the five year average. Although the Ministry of Agriculture and Industry increased the 1999 area and production targets, due to a shortage of seed the target may not be attained.
Dwindling domestic cereal supplies have resulted in deterioration in the country�s ability to feed its people with the number of malnourished people rising sharply. Large imports continue to be necessary to meet requirements, a situation further compounded by low cereal reserves, a decline in export trading and the country�s capacity to import sufficient quantities of grain commercially to meet the deficit.
To help the country during its transition various multi- lateral and bi-lateral aid packages have been announced. In June international donors pledged a record $320 million in aid to stimulate the economy and promote foreign investment. The aid is primarily directed at infrastructure development and banking reforms which will improve the environment for investment. There are also positive trends in foreign investment which is expected to increase from, US $39 million last year to around US $60 million by the end of this year. The main sectors for investment are agro-processing ( meat and milk products, camel wool, cashmere and leather processing) and tourism.
Around 60 000 tonnes of food aid were pledged to the country in 1999 of which 45 000 tonnes have been delivered. A further 48 000 tonnes of wheat seed have also been provided.
Following generally above-normal rainfall in the April and May, at the time of dry season rice planting and development, rainfall in June and the first half of July was below normal. By the end of July some 70 percent of main wet season rice planting had been completed for harvesting from October, whilst almost all the dry season crop had been harvested. The main rice crop accounts for around 85 percent of aggregate production. A slight increase in the area under main season rice is forecast this year. Yields, however, are likely to remain constrained by a shortage of critical inputs. To encourage rice exports, the Government has introduced a number of policy initiatives, such as allowing entrepreneurs, who reclaim fallow and wet lands for paddy, to export 50 percent of production.
Generally favourable conditions last year together with a 2 percent increase in area, resulted in a 7 percent increase in paddy production to 17.8 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
Rice exports for 1999 are projected at 100 000 to 150 000 tonnes, compared to around 94 000 tonnes in the previous year.
Heavy monsoon rains and floods in July and August resulted in a number of deaths and property damage and affected 60 out of 75 administrative districts in the country. The full extent of any damage to crops is not yet not known. Paddy production this year is projected at 3.6 million tonnes, slightly above last year and the five year average. The area under paddy is also estimated to have increased marginally to 1.5 million hectares.
In the last dekad of August, although monsoon rains remained unusually weak across parts of the region, widespread rainfall generally maintained adequate moisture supplies for paddy. The south west monsoon typically begins its seasonal withdrawal from the region in early September, though this year the pattern in the region has been abnormal and rains have persisted. Improved weather in recent weeks and a slight increase in rice area suggest that milled rice production could be somewhat higher than the 4.7 million tonnes produced last year. However conditions during September, will be important to the final outcome.
The target for 1999/2000 wheat production is likely to be 19.5 million tonnes. To meet the fertiliser requirement for the rabi (winter) season, mainly for wheat, the Government has announced that it will import 300 000 tonnes of Di Ammonium Phosphate.
In July, the first month of the current 1999/2000 marketing year, around 72 000 tonnes of rice were exported, compared to 46 600 in the same period last year. An estimated around 3.6 million tonnes of wheat imports are envisaged for the 1999/2000 marketing year.
In August, widespread rain generally maintained adequate moisture supplies for crops across the country. However, floods and typhoons damaged rice in parts in late July/early August. Despite some losses, due to typhoon Isling and heavy monsoon rain in July, paddy production this year is expected to be significantly higher than in recent years. First and second quarter production were also favourable and official reports expect paddy output to be around 11.76 million metric tonnes this (calendar) year. The projected output amounts to an estimated 7.64 million tonnes of milled rice. Average paddy production for the last five years was around 10.6 million tonnes. Demand for food grains is also projected to increase due to anticipated economic recovery.
At the end of August, the National Food Authority had approximately 2.1 million tonnes of rice and 345 000 tonnes of maize in stock.
Production of wheat in 1999 is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, about 17 percent below last year. Low numbers of locusts are likely to breed in the southern Tihama near Jizan and in some areas with recent rainfall. Barley import in 1999/2000 (July/June) are currently forecast at 6 million tonnes, similar to last year.
Harvesting of the second (Yala) rice crop, which constitutes about a third of aggregate production, is underway. Favourable rains earlier in the season, adequate irrigation supplies and attractive rice prices at the time of planting suggest favourable production. Output is projected at 987 000 tonnes, around 8 percent higher than the 1998 Yala crop.
Aggregate 1998/99 paddy production is estimated at 2.72 million tonnes (1.87 million tonnes milled basis). The main 1998 Maha crop was damaged by heavy rains at ripening stage and production was estimated at around 1.74 million tonnes compared to 1.78 million tonnes in the previous year. Official reports indicate that the country imported around 150 000 tonnes of rice last year and around 0.9 million tonnes of wheat.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that the worst drought in decades has seriously affected crop and livestock production. Rainfall last season (October�March), was between 25 and 70 percent below normal in several parts of the country. As a result, barley production, which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 380 000 tonnes this year, around 72 percent below the five- year average. Wheat production, 40 percent of which is irrigated, is estimated at 2.74 million tonnes, 33 percent lower than last year's bumper crop and around 28 percent below average. The drought also devastated range vegetation leading to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected household incomes and exposed a large number of the Badia (nomad) population to food shortages.
Overall, domestic wheat requirements estimated at 3.8 million tonnes are anticipated to be met from current production and existing stocks. However, barley import requirements for the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at around 1.18 million tonnes. In view of the country�s economic slowdown, Government imports are estimated at only 200 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 980 000 tonnes. As part of an emergency measure, private sector imports of barley have been authorised this year, but with low purchasing power of herders, only limited quantities are anticipated to be imported.
Emergency food assistance of about 24 000 tonnes of wheat flour is urgently required for an estimated 329 000 nomadic people for six months. International assistance is also urged to support Government efforts to replenish the National Fodder Fund, mainly barley which is almost depleted.
Reports indicate that 1999 grain and pulse production could fall sharply to 430 000 tonnes and that the food supply situation is deteriorating. This would be the second year in succession that production has fallen and would be mainly due to sharply lower yields than last year. Contrary to earlier official indications, the area sown to cereals is now reported to have remained stable at about 400 000 hectares but yields are officially forecast to fall to about 1 tonne per hectare. Lower yields than last year are due to heavy rains in July which caused severe but localized damage, heavy infestation of wheat with rust and smut, inadequate use of high quality seed and other inputs and poor irrigation. Given that about 150 000 hectares of the land sown to grain is irrigated, official average yield expectations seem too low, despite persistent economic problems in the sector. Lack of resources available to the national statistics office and the government's weak control over large parts of the country limit the accuracy of information on economic and agricultural activity.
The agricultural sector employs almost half of the labour force but generates less than 30 percent of recorded GDP. Reforms which are being undertaken to improve efficiency include registry certificates for land redistributed under the 1996 agrarian reform, and implementing a special programme to centralize farms in 160 associations.
The shortfall in cereal production will have to be met by food aid and commercial imports, the latter mainly from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In 1999/2000, the cereal import requirement is estimated to increase to 403 000 tonnes. In 1998/99 the country received 46 000 tonnes of cereals as food aid. Allocations for the current year have not yet been finalized.
World Bank data indicates that about 85 percent of the population has incomes below the poverty line, 5 percent of the population are destitute and another 12 percent extremely poor. Standards of living have continued to decline in recent months. Recent assessments in the Karategin Valley found that large segments of the population were food insecure. Humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations will continue to be necessary.
Widespread rain in the later part of August boosted moisture supplies for rice. Earlier, heavy rains in late July, resulted in localised flooding in eastern and north-eastern parts, which is important for rice and sugar cane cultivation. The overall level of crop damage was estimated to be small.
Paddy production from the main crop, to be harvested in November/December is forecast at around 18.5 million tonnes, which together with second season production of around 4.5 million tonnes will bring aggregate 1999/2000 to around 23 million tonnes.
Rice exports in the first eight months of 1999 amounted to 4.09 million tonnes, compared to 4.33 million tonnes during the same period in 1998. Total rice exports this year are projected at between 5 and 5.5 million tonnes.
A major earthquake, measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale, hit the country on 17 August causing more than 15 000 deaths and an estimated 600 000 people homeless. The main affected areas in and around Izmit were reported to be industrial but also produced grains and oil seeds. Government and relief agencies have distributed shelter and food assistance.
As with other countries in the Region, drought conditions also resulted in extensive crop damage in several parts, including Central Anatolia, the country's bread basket. The effects of drought were most serious in the south. Wheat production in 1999 is currently forecast at 18 million tonnes, about 14 percent below last year�s bumper crop but about 4 percent below the five year average. Similarly, barley production, forecast at 7 million tonnes, is around 15 percent and 10 percent below last year and the average respectively.
1999 grain production is officially estimated at a record 1.5 million tonnes, nearly 300 000 tonnes above 1998. Of this amount private farmers produced 226 000 tonnes. The area sown to grains fell to 570 000 hectares but the import of high quality seed and increased use of fertilizer raised yields significantly. Given the difficult foreign exchange situation and the large 1999 harvest, which would be adequate to meet domestic requirements, cereal imports in 1999/2000 are expected to remain very low. The cotton target is 1.3 million tonnes. Actual production reached 700 000 tonnes in 1998.
Harvesting of 1999 winter grains has been completed and output of wheat and barley crop is officially estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, some 140 000 tonnes above 1998. Public sector farms produced 3.3 million tonnes and households 631 000 tonnes. The procurement target of 2.2 million tonnes was surpassed by 100 000 tonnes. In addition, the country produces maize and rice. The rice production target is 500 000 tonnes, of which 300 000 tonnes are to be sold to the government. Indications are that total 1999 grain production could be around 4.4 million tonnes. Imports of grain are being reduced to maintain a positive trade balance. Cereal imports in 1999/2000 are estimated to fall to about 400 000 tonnes, to be met commercially.
As in neighbouring countries, widespread rain in late August, increased moisture supplies for rice. The country has three rice crops a year: the first is the 10th month (rainy season) crop, followed by the winter-spring crop and then the summer- autumn crop. This year, by mid July, 50 percent of the 10th month crop had already been transplanted in the north, where early rains benefited development. Rice production for 1999/2000 is forecast to be around 19 million tonnes (milled), similar to last years record crop of 18.92 million tonnes. A bumper rice crop was produced in 1998/99, despite drought early in 1999.
Recent reports indicate that the country could export 4.2 million tonnes of rice this year, some 200 000 tonnes higher than the target of 3.9 million tonnes. By the end of August an estimated 3.4 million tonnes had already been exported. Last year the country exported 3.8 million tonnes.
Sorghum production in 1999 is anticipated to decline compared to last year�s bumper crop of about 474 000 tonnes due to reduced planted area. Similarly, the wheat harvest is also expected to decline. Small scale breeding of desert locust could extend into areas of recent rainfall in the eastern desert. Hoppers are likely to appear from early October and may form small groups or bands.
Imports of cereals in 1999 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2.8 million tonnes.
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