FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.5 - November 1999 p. 2

	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000 forecast	Change 1999/2000 over 1998/99
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . .. . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	548	589	613	595	582	-2.1
Coarse grains	810	920	905	905	889	-1.8
Rice, milled	369	383	387	383	395	2.9
(paddy)	(550)	(5710	(578)	(573)	(590)	2.9
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 727	1 892	1 905	1 883	1 866	-0.9
Developing countries	958	1 025	1 006	1 026	1 029	0.3
Developed countries	770	867	899	857	836	-2.4
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	99	102	100	97	102	4.8
Coarse grains	95	91	89	92	96	4.0
Rice (milled)	19	19	28	24	23	-0.9
All cereals	214	211	216	213	221	3.8
Developing countries	151	150	158	156	160	2.7
Developed countries	62	62	58	57	61	7.0
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	7.4	5.5	6.2	9.5
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	563	577	591	591	592	0.1
Coarse grains	856	896	892	887	892	0.6
Rice (milled)	373	380	382	388	392	1.1
All cereals	1 791	1 854	1 865	1 866	1 876	0.5
Developing countries	1 078	1 107	1 110	1 128	1 142	1.3
Developed countries	713	747	755	739	734	-0.6
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	171	172	171	172	172	-0.2
Developed countries	128	129	129	130	130	0.1
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	102	113	136	139	131	-5.9
Coarse grains	99	123	139	147	145	-1.8
Rice (milled)	52	56	55	54	56	4.1
All cereals	253	292	330	340	331	-2.5
Developing countries	150	172	163	167	164	-1.4
Developed countries	102	120	167	173	167	-3.6
Stocks as % of world cereal consumption	( . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . .)
Stocks as % of world cereal consumption	13.6	15.6	17.7	18.1	17.3
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/tonne . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	336	352	316	315	256 5/	-20.5 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	216	181	142	120	113 6/	-4.2 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	159	135	112	95	73 6/	-20.7 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	16.8	12.8	11.7	9.3	13.3 6/	60.2 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	359	379	373	359	363	0.9
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	744	803	784	799	815	2.0
Per caput production (kg.) 9/	211	224	216	217	218	0.5
Cereal imports 2/	78.9	69.2	77.8	70.5	71.6	1.6
of which: Food aid 3/	6.4	4.6	5.5	6.8
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	8.1	6.7	7.0	9.6

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/. Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ Average of quotations for January-October 1999. 6/ Average of quotations for July-October 1999. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1997), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid. 9/ Includes rice on a mille basis.

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.5 - November 1999 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION