FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1999 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:
570 000 sq.km
Climate:
North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November December.
Population:
31.10 million (1999 estimate), GNP per caput US$ 330 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:
Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:
October/September
Lean season:
June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Harvesting of the 1999 main "long rains" cereal crops is nearing completion in the main growing areas of the Rift Valley. Significant output reductions are reported for the Eastern, Central, Western and Nyanza Provinces due to drought, inadequate agricultural input supply and armyworm infestation in some parts. Prospects for the 1999/2000 "short rains" cereal crops in the bi-modal areas of the Western, Central and Eastern provinces, for harvest in February/March, are also unfavourable due to drought conditions. Preliminary official estimates indicate a maize output of about 2.1 million tonnes compared to 2.44 million tonnes last year and 2.5 million tonnes average over the previous five years.

Cereal stocks at the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) were under 34 000 tonnes as of end September, against a target reserve requirement of 270 000 tonnes. The Government plans procurement of about 90 000 tonnes at the peak of the harvest period in November and December, leaving a significant deficit to be made up by imports. The food supply situation is critical in the northern and north-eastern pastoral districts, particularly in Turkana District, where rainfall from the long rains season has been too erratic and insufficient for adequate pasture and water supplies. Severe food shortages are also reported in parts of Central and Eastern provinces. The Government has recently set up emergency co-ordinating committees and provided more than 4 000 tonnes of relief food to vulnerable households in Eastern Province and the pastoral districts. More food assistance is needed for the affected population.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1999/2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

241

49

2 587

2 877

Normal Imports

311

57

312

680

of which: Structural food aid

74

-

-

74

1999/2000 Domestic Availability

335

-

2 366

2 701

1999 Production (rice in paddy terms)

135

50

2 346

2 531

1999 Production (rice in milled terms)

135

-

2 346

2 481

Possible stock drawdown

200

-

20

220

1999/2000 Utilization

635

200

3 166

4 001

Food Use

615

180

2 907

3 702

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

5

5

Non-food use

20

20

259

299

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1999/2000 Import Requirement

300

200

800

1300

Anticipated commercial imports

251

200

750

1201

Food aid needs

49

-

50

99

Current Aid Position

       

Food aid pledges

8

-

1

9

of which: Delivered

-

-

-

-

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

5

5

of which: for local use

-

-

5

5

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

19

6

91

116

Indexes

       

1999 production as % of normal:

     

88

1999/2000 import requirement as % of normal:

     

191

1999/2000 food aid requirement as % of normal:

     

134


FAO/GIEWS - December 1999

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