FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1999 TANZANIA 44

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TANZANIA

Area:
886 000 sq.km
Climate:
Tropical wet-dry climate with two rainy seasons in north (November-December and March-May) and one in south (November-April)
Population:
32.30 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 210 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; cereal surplus production in south and south-west; cereal deficit in central and north-west. Distribution difficulties
Logistics:
Serious shortage of rolling stock, fuel and spare parts
Major foodcrops:
Maize, roots, tubers, sorghum, pulses, plantains, rice
Marketing year:
June/May; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Planting of the 2000 main season cereal crops in the unimodal central and southern areas, as well as that of 1999/2000 short ("Vuli" ) crops in bi-modal northern areas, are underway. Generally below-normal rains in October have caused moisture stress, particularly for earlier planted crops.

The 1999 cereal crop, mainly maize, is estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, about 11 percent below last year's output due to erratic rains, reduced use of inputs and an outbreak of armyworms. By contrast, production of other food crops, including beans, potatoes, cassava and plantains have increased by nearly 13 percent to 3.3 million tonnes. As a result of the reduced production, the cereal import requirement in 1999/2000 is currently forecast at 600 000 tonnes. In addition to substitution with non-cereal foodcrops, much of the deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. However, food assistance is required for nearly 1.2 million people, mainly in the regions of Dodoma, Mara, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora, Tanga and southern Mwanza, all of which have now suffered their third consecutive poor harvest. WFP has extended its current Emergency Operation in selected central, lake and coast regions until the end of 1999.

Food prices in most markets, particularly for beans and potatoes, have declined with the increased availability.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1999/2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

85

607

3 230

3 922

Normal Imports

60

25

-

85

of which: Structural food aid

15

15

-

30

1999/2000 Domestic Availability

103

525

3 210

3 838

1999 Production (rice in paddy terms)

73

800

3 210

4 083

1999 Production (rice in milled terms)

73

520

3 210

3 803

Possible stock drawdown

30

5

-

35

1999/2000 Utilization

143

565

3 730

4 438

Food Use

138

460

3 204

3 802

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

2

2

Non-food use

5

105

526

636

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1999/2000 Import Requirement

40

40

520

600

Anticipated commercial imports

40

35

450

525

Food aid needs

-

5

70

75

Current Aid Position

       

Food aid pledges

-

-

8

8

of which: Delivered

-

-

8

8

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

-

-

of which: for local use

-

-

-

-

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

4

14

99

118

Indexes

       

1999 production as % of normal:

     

104

1999/2000 import requirement as % of normal:

     

706

1999/2000 food aid requirement as % of normal:

     

250


FAO/GIEWS - December 1999

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