Cereal production, for harvest from May/June, is expected to be constrained by shortage of agricultural inputs and persistent insecurity in the provinces of the north, which comprise some 40 percent of the country's irrigated area. Due to low level of precipitation and outbreak of pests, total cereal production in 1999 is estimated at 3.24 million tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), about 16 percent below the previous year's bumper output of 3.86 million tonnes.
The food situation is tight for the displaced population. Recent reports indicate that nearly 350 000 internally displaced people in Kabul alone are being targeted by WFP. In 1999, food aid has been distributed to more than 60 000 vulnerable households in the central highlands and to some 8 000 people in the north-eastern province of Badakhshan.
Commercial imports of cereals in 1999/2000 are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, about one-third higher than the previous year due to increased private sector activity, cash crop production and active cross-border trade. This compares with a cereal import requirement of about 1.1 million tonnes, of which more than 95 percent is wheat.
Indications are that the winter crop area has been further reduced in response to uncompetitive yields and higher fuel prices. By November 1999, only 65 000 hectares had been sown to winter crops.
The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated at 298 000 tonnes, some 9 percent less than the 326 000 tonnes harvested in 1998. Winter wheat output declined reflecting mainly imports competition from cheaper Russian grain in the wake of the rouble devaluation in 1998 and below normal autumn and winter precipitation. In 1999/2000 the cereal import requirement is estimated at nearly 392 000 tonnes. Against this requirement food aid pledges of roughly 81 000 tonnes have been made. The balance is expected to be imported commercially.
Domestic production and imports are covering the country's food needs, and per capita consumption is slowly recovering from the low levels of the early nineties but household purchasing power remains low. In total, some 170 000 vulnerable people will be covered by WFP food assistance, including some 110 000 refugees and vulnerable persons being provided with relief food aid, and 60 000 will be reached through community based food-for-work activities, supporting economic and social development. The programme is planned for three years and will be reviewed annually.
The area sown to winter crops (mainly wheat), had reached 450 000 hectares by late November. Although about 6 percent more than that sown for the 1999 harvest, it remains about two thirds of the average up to 1997, in response to import competition from imported wheat following liberalization of the grain trade.
A Joint FAO/WFP mission, which visited the country in November 1999, found that the outlook for significantly increasing cereal (mainly wheat) production in the short term is poor. Lack of access to credit for quality seed and fertilizer, coupled with the unreliable availability of irrigation water supplies, prevent most farmers from increasing the yield of domestic wheat to a level where it would be competitive with imports in urban areas, and increasingly, in rural areas. In addition, poor marketing infrastructure and the lack of an enabling environment for producers, processors and traders has severely limited investment in the agri-food sector and domestic producers' access to the growing urban markets. Rural households are increasingly producing food for autoconsumption, selling surpluses on the rural market. Moreover, private farmers are shifting land to more profitable crops (potatoes, vegetables, fodder crops) and livestock production.
Grain production in 1999 is forecast at 1 090 000 tonnes, 14 percent more than in 1998 but still nearly 20 percent below output in 1991. Improved yields because of better weather and management by private farmers offset the sharp reduction in the area sown to grains. Production of potatoes and vegetables has increased but that of cotton, tea, tobacco and grapes continues to fall. Production of meat, milk and eggs expanded in 1999.
There is no shortage of food in rural or urban markets. Any shortfall in domestic production is offset by imports. Urban areas are almost entirely supplied by imported wheat, as well as poultry and processed products. In 1999/2000 imports of cereals are estimated at 601 000 tonnes, about 10 percent less than last year. The bulk of this will be covered commercially although the vulnerable groups, including the internally displaced, still need targeted food assistance. WFP continues to support to 485 000 beneficiaries through the 3-year Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation which started in July 1999. Total food commodities committed for the life of the project amount to 47 880 tonnes of food aid. The current programme supports IDPs with supplementary assistance, relief support to socially vulnerable groups, resettlement of refugees/returnees and recovery through food- for-work and food-for-training.
Rainfall during the important aman rice season, (1999/2000) planted around July and harvested in November/December was favourable benefiting crops. By the end of the monsoon season, all areas had received above-average rainfall, compared to only 90 percent with normal/above-normal rainfall in 1998/99. Area planted also increased from around 5.16 million hectares in 1998-99 to 5.8 million hectares, whilst yields are also likely to be higher due to an increase in the area of high yielding varieties planted. As a result, it is expected that the country will exceed the aman target of 9.5 million tonnes (milled) for the current marketing year. Early prospects for the recently planted boro rice crop, for harvest in April/May, however were somewhat affected by pest attacks in parts. The target for boro production has been set at 9.2 million tonnes, lower than actual production last year. Earlier, the final estimate of the 1999/2000 aus rice crop was put at 1.73 million tonnes, some 6 percent higher than the previous season.
Foodgrain production in 1999-2000 is forecast at around 22.4 million tonnes (milled), some 4 percent above last year. The overall food situation is favourable, with the country having the highest level of food stocks in decades due to the bumper rice crops in 1999. Currently governmental rice and wheat stocks are estimated at 1.2 million tonnes As a result official reports indicate that Government imports during 1999/2000 will be negligible whilst a five percent levy has been placed to discourage private imports.
The Government aman procurement target for the current has been set at 250 thousand tonnes. With favourable rice supplies in the country, domestic prices declined in November/ December
The harvest of early and medium rice varieties was completed by mid-January, some 2-3 weeks later than normal, whilst harvesting of longer duration varieties will be completed by early February. Notwithstanding flood and drought that adversely affected wet season rice production in parts of the country, 1999/2000 rice production is forecast at around 3.8 million tonnes, some 8 percent above 1998/1999. At this level of production, output would be similar to levels in the early 1970s, when the country regularly exported rice. As a result of favourable prospects, rice prices in late January eased whilst cross border exports to neighbouring Vietnam increased.
Rice accounts for some 84 percent of annual food crop production and is planted on around 90 percent of cropped area, mainly in the Central Mekong Basin and Delta and the Tonle Sap Plain.
Despite a satisfactory food supply situation overall, a sizeable section of the population remains vulnerable to food shortages. In part some of these needs are being met through a WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation.
Despite cold weather in the south which adversely affected winter wheat in some less important producing areas, overall widespread precipitation increased moisture supplies for winter wheat across main wheat producing areas in north central parts of the country. Official reports indicate that the area under winter wheat ( planted Oct/Nov for harvest from April/May) declined to 23.7 million hectares, some 7 percent lower than 1998. The decline in area planted is mainly attributed to lower producer prices and substitution to other crops considered more profitable, such as oilseeds and vegetables. Lower prices and sizeable stocks in the country, are also likely to result in a decline in the area planted of maize in 2000, and farmers are likely to substitute more soya, vegetables or ground-nuts for maize.
The grain production target has officially been revised down to 490 million tonnes from estimated production of 500 million tonnes (including roots and tubers) in 1999. The downward revision is officially attributed to large grain stocks in the country and lower prices of some commodities and lower area planted.
Wheat imports in 1999 are expected to be significantly lower than 1998, when main producing areas were adversely affected by serious drought.
Sowing of the 2000 wheat and barley crops for harvest from May has been completed under generally normal weather. Aggregate wheat and barley output in 1999 is estimated at 106 000 tonnes, some 63 percent above the previous year's reduced output but 6 percent lower than the average for the previous five years.
Imports of wheat in 1999/2000 (May/April) are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, while aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes.
Violence following the referendum for independence at the end of August last year, resulted in large numbers of deaths and massive population displacement. It also severely affected food distribution and marketing systems and essential services. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last November, however, noted that although infrastructure and property damage was extensive, agricultural damage was less severe as crops had already been harvested and only relatively minor second season crop were damaged. The mission also noted that notwithstanding the importance of food assistance in the months between November 1999 and March this year when harvesting of main crops commences, the overall food supply prospects in the medium to long term (the 2000/2001 marketing year April/March) are less gloomy than envisaged at the height of the crisis following the referendum.
In addition to reinstating food production, considerable amount still needs to be done in repairing infrastructure and inducing recovery in the economy. Although an international agreement amongst key donor countries was reached late last year to provide US $ 522 million in aid, reports indicate that relatively little has been disbursed so far.
Of the original population of some 900 000 people before the crisis, it is estimated that up to 174 000 still remain in refugee camps in West Timor. UNICEF estimates that around 24 percent of refugee children in camps in border areas are suffering from moderate to severe malnutrition, whilst four percent were severely malnourished. The prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory infection among young children is also reported to be high.
In addition to food aid, as part of the consolidated UN Interagency Appeal for East Timor, FAO has prepared a number of initiatives to rehabilitate agriculture and food production. These include the distribution of urgently needed maize and paddy seed last planting season and the deployment of an agricultural expert to assist the Emergency Coordination Unit in Dili to monitor the situation and advise on needed interventions in agriculture. An important initiative already advocated is the establishment of a seed multiplication programme to provide high quality seed to future returnees and to strengthen the quality of indigenous seed stock.
The area planted to winter crops (mainly wheat but also barley) fell further, partly due to the sharp increase in the price of fuel during the planting period. The sown area to winter crops fell to 110 000 hectares from 134 000 in the preceding year, and is below target (124 000 hectares). An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited the country in November 1999, found that the aggregate area being farmed is recovering, but that the wheat area is declining steadily, in favour of more profitable crops (sunflower, potatoes, vegetables and maize) and also due to competition from imports of wheat.
Despite a reduction in the area sown to wheat, the 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated to have increased by 182 000 tonnes to 780 000 tonnes, including 280 000 tonnes (1998:168 000 tonnes) of grains other than maize and 490 000 tonnes (1998: 420 000 tonnes) of maize. Actual production could be somewhat higher. The efficacy of data collection is hampered by the lack of funds and the margin of error in data on foodcrop production is high. FAO's estimate of production in 1999 is 850 000 tonnes, some 10 percent higher than official data. Above all, timely rains during the growing season as well as some improvement in farmers' access to inputs and better care for crops by private farmers have led to markedly better yields than in 1998. Production of potatoes, vegetables, sunflowerseed and tea has also increased sharply, but fruit/citrus production declined further in the absence of an effective marketing/processing system.
The existence of sizeable unregistered flows of cereals (particularly wheat and flour) into the country and the transshipment to other neighbouring countries make analysis of the supply and demand situation difficult. In 1999/2000, aggregate cereal utilization is estimated at nearly 1.5 million tonnes of cereals, including 815 000 tonnes for human consumption, 100 000 tonnes for seed/processing/losses and the balance for feed. Based on the findings of the Household Budget Survey, per caput consumption of cereals is estimated at 173 kg/person per year. Given a resident population of 4.7 million, the aggregate use of cereals for food is estimated at 815 000 tonnes, including 650 000 tonnes of wheat and 155 000 tonnes of maize. Given domestic production (excluding pulses) of 841 000 tonnes, imports of cereals are estimated at 555 000 tonnes, about 8 percent less than last year, when wheat was more easily available and cheaper in neighbouring countries. Against this requirement, food aid pledges amounting to 80 000 tonnes have been reported to date. The balance is expected to be imported commercially.
There is no shortage of food in rural or urban markets. Any shortfall in domestic production is offset by imports. Although GDP has grown since 1996, it is still only about one third of that in 1990. However, available GDP statistics have to be treated with caution. In addition, income disparity has increased greatly. Food constitutes a large proportion of household expenditures, and a considerable percentage of the population is poor. Although there is no officially recognized acute malnutrition, a slow but clear increase of malnutrition among children is being observed, despite some targeted distribution of supplementary food aid. In all, several hundred thousand people still need humanitarian assistance, including the 182 000 receiving assistance from the World Food Programme under the current Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation. The PRRO is for a period of one year with a total food commitment of 18 190 tonnes and a total WFP cost of about US$10 000 000. The WFP assistance under PRRO is comprised of two components - (i) protracted relief with free food distribution to the most vulnerable people and (ii) recovery through food for work. .
The main rabi (winter) crop currently in the ground is wheat, which is planted in the period October to December, for harvest in March/April. The area under the 1999/2000 crop is reported to have decreased somewhat compared to the previous year. In main producing areas in the north, recent rains improved prospects, though in general rainfall was below normal in many growing areas, with 37 percent of wheat area receiving below-average rainfall up to the end of January, compared to almost none last year. Rainfall during the rabi season, however, is less critical than during the monsoon season, as many areas rely on irrigation. Temperatures have been generally favourable. Wheat is the major component of the winter crop and contributes around 40 percent to national food grain production. In 1999 a record 73 million tonnes were produced. The area under rabi rice, in contrast, has declined by around 10 percent to 1.6 million hectares compared to 1.8 million hectares last year.
The latest estimate for 1999/2000 kharif (monsoon) rice production is put at 74.8 million tonnes (milled) some 3 million tonnes, or 4 percent above 1998. Overall 1998/99 food grain production was a record 202.5 million tonnes, including pulses.
The overall food situation in the country is satisfactory with large Government stocks of cereals. The Food Corporation of India (FCI), is estimated to have around 17 million tonnes of wheat in stock at the beginning of January 2000, compared to a minimum buffer requirement of around 8 million tonnes for this time of the year. The Government announced recently that the target for wheat procurement for the 2000/2001 marketing year, from April, has been set at 15 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 14 million tonnes which is likely to be procured during the current 1999/00 year. At the beginning of December last year the Government imposed a 50 percent levy to restrict cheaper wheat imports.
Seasonably heavy showers over main rice producing areas in Java, in the first half of January increased moisture supplies for main-season rice, planted from Oct/Jan for harvest from March/April. The target for paddy (unmilled) rice production in the current year, has been set at 50 million tonnes (around 33 million tonnes milled), similar to output in 1999.
Following the Asia financial crisis and El Ni�o related weather disturbances that affected domestic food production in 1997/98, leaving large numbers of people vulnerable to food shortages, food supply prospects are forecast to improve. This is due to indications of economic recovery, which is having a positive impact on exchange rates and food prices and the return of greater consumer and investor confidence in the economy. Agricultural production is also anticipated to be satisfactory in 1999/2000, in view of greater economic stability, increasing consumer confidence and specific Government programmes and efforts at increasing domestic food security and self sufficiency. Overall rice supplies are anticipated to remain satisfactory up to the harvest of the main paddy crop from March, with prices likely to remain competitive in view of imports and prospects of a reasonable harvest. In late 1998 the Government allowed private imports of rice. As import prices, especially of lower quality grades (25 percent and AI) remained much lower than domestic prices through out 1999, in September private imports were restricted to 5 percent broken or above only, to prevent further fall in domestic prices. However, as imported rice, still remained cheaper and sizeable private imports continued in October and November, further depressing prices, at the end of 1999 the Government imposed a 30 percent tax on imported rice to prevent further falls. The import levy came into effect on 1 January 2000. Total rice imports in 1999 are estimated at 4 million tonnes, significantly lower than around 6 million tonnes imported in 1998.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (1 February)
Storms across northern parts of the country in mid-January, killed several people and destroyed more than 1 000 homes. The worst affected area was the province of Gilan, though the full extent of damage to agriculture is yet not known. Currently the main crops in the ground are wheat, the country's main staple and barley, which is extremely important for the livestock sector, on which a large part of the population depend. Harvesting of barley will commence from March, whilst that of wheat will begin around May/June.
In 1999, the worst drought in 30 years severely affected agricultural production, as a result of which domestic wheat production fell by 25 percent from around 12 million tonnes in 1998 to around 9 million tonnes. Rice production (milled) also fell significantly by around 17 percent from 1.74 million tonnes to 1.45 million tonnes, whilst barley output went down from around 3 million to 2.5 million tonnes. As a result of the shortfall in crop production, large imports were necessary to meet demand, including some 6 million tonnes of wheat. The country is one of the largest importers of rice.
Despite recent beneficial rains prospects for the 2000 cereal harvest in May/June remain uncertain, as extended drought substantially affected planting. Production is also likely to be constrained by serious shortages of essential agricultural inputs. Last year, in addition to the shortage of agricultural inputs, a severe drought and widespread incidence of pests and weeds adversely affected cereal crops. Total cereal output in 1999 is estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, nearly 40 percent below the previous five year average. The drought also caused serious damage to livestock, already weakened by foot-and-mouth disease.
In December 1999, the UN Security Council approved the seventh phase of the "Oil-for-food" programme, from January to June, which anticipates oil revenues of US$5.26 billion, but may be revised upward if earnings are higher, to buy food, medicine and health supplies, and for emergency repairs to infrastructure. Despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of the "Oil-for-food" deal, health and nutritional problems remain widespread in many parts.
Recent beneficial rains improved prospects for the 2000 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from April. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than one- fifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially. Wheat production in 1999 was estimated at 152 000 tonnes, about 10 percent below the previous year, due to severe drought which affected several countries in the Near East. Imports of cereals in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.6 million tonnes.
In January/February there are no major agricultural crops, the main rice crop being planted in May/June for harvest in October/November. 1999 rice production was officially estimated at around 9.1 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year. The increase was attributed to favourable weather in main rice growing regions. Under government schemes to balance supply and demand, the area under rice declined to around 1.78 million hectares in 1999 from 1.8 million hectares in 1998.
Despite recent beneficial rains, the prospects for the 2000 wheat and barley crops, for harvest in May/June, are poor due to prolonged drought that delayed sowing. In 1999, a severe drought seriously damaged cereal and horticultural crops. Consequently, aggregate output of wheat and barley in 1999 declined by 86 percent to 15 000 tonnes. The livestock sector was also affected and many sheep farms were seriously affected as costs increased and products diminished in quality and quantity. An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease exacerbated losses.
Total cereal import requirement for the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 1.94 million tonnes. About 80 percent of the requirement is anticipated to be covered commercially, leaving a deficit of 387 000 tonnes to be covered by food aid. Some 300 000 tonnes have so far been pledged through direct food aid and concessional grants. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in July 1999 for food assistance to 180 000 vulnerable people, worth some US$429 000 for a period of nine months.
The bulk of the cereals are grown in the spring. Winter grains account for a very small proportion of the total harvest.
The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated at 14.2 million tonnes cleaned weight, i.e. more than double the poor 1998 harvest which was officially put at 6.4 million tonnes. The area sown to grains remained stable and the markedly better outcome is due too timely rains during the growing season and at harvesting. As a result, 96 percent of the sown area was harvested.
The country exported 2.5 million tonnes of cereals in 1998/99 and has an export availability of 7-8 million tonnes in the current marketing year. However infrastructure and logistical considerations are likely to keep exports lower and grain exports in 1999/2000 are tentatively estimated at less than 5 million tonnes, mainly to other CIS countries. Between July and December 1999, in excess of 3 million tonnes of cereals, mainly wheat have been exported.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (1 February)
Despite heavy rains and flooding during the 1999 crop season, overall paddy production was around 5.2 million tonnes, from an area of approximately 1.06 million hectares. The level of production was around 146 000 tonnes or almost 3 percent above output in 1998. In general, the number of productive farms and rice acreage is declining in the country as more land is made available to infrastructure and urban development. Any future expansion will come mainly from marginal and reclaimed land, including land subject to flooding. Yields in these areas will be below average and highly dependant upon weather. In view of falling domestic production, most of the country's food needs are imported.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (1 February)
Currently no main agricultural activities are underway, whilst winter wheat and barley will remain dormant till spring, around March, and warmer weather. March is also the time for spring wheat and barley planting. In view of harsh climatic conditions and topography, the country is restricted to planting one main crop of rice and maize per year the main staples, from May for harvest in September/October. Much depends on this period, with the country suffering severe setbacks from 1995 to 1997, when floods and drought seriously reduced domestic food supplies.
In comparison to these adverse years, 1998 and 1999 saw relative stability in agricultural production. However, production trends during these years, indicate that DPR Korea has entered an era of relatively low-input low-output agriculture. Even in the absence of major natural hazards, therefore, domestic food production will remain well below minimum needs due to serious lack of investment and essential inputs into agriculture. Despite substantial improvement in the 1999 crop season, fertilizer availability remains well below requirements. Fuel and energy for critical mechanized operations are in very short supply, whilst large numbers of tractors and machines are inoperable due to lack of spare parts and replacement. These, in turn, are due to serious economic contraction and critical shortage of foreign exchange for necessary purchases of inputs and food. Shortage of capital has resulted in severely reduced land and labour productivity, whilst more and more operations are becoming labour intensive. Overall, therefore, under prevailing constraints, the country has serious problems of maintaining agricultural production and food supply.
Due to chronic food supply constraints, the last four years have already witnessed a significant decline in living standards, as per caput availability of food has shrunk, whilst serious health problems have increased due to lack of resources, drugs and essential supplies. A vicious circle of poor nutrition compounding poor health and vice versa has, therefore, become deeply entrenched. The full extent of the problem and the inter-linkages is not known as a comprehensive nutritional survey is yet to be undertaken. The government has advised that a nutrition survey will be carried out in April 2000. There will be no international participation as with the 1998 WFP/UNICEF/EU nutritional survey which indicated an acute malnutrition rate of 16 percent, amongst children six months to 7 years, which represents one of the highest rates of wasting in the world.
In view of chronic food supply problems, WFP has so far this marketing year (November/October) provided 96 000 tonnes of food assistance, and another 220 000 tonnes are scheduled for arrival in February and March. Assistance is concentrated on children under 16 in nurseries, kindergartens and primary and secondary schools, as well as pregnant and nursing women, orphans, hospital patients and the elderly. WFP is currently providing food aid to around 5.6 million beneficiaries and intends to make additional distributions during the lean season, from April to June. However, such distributions can only proceed if new donations are received as its pipeline for cereals runs dry in April.
Indications are that the area sown to winter grains (mainly wheat) for harvest in the summer of 2000 could remain stable. By 1 December, 271 000 hectares had been sown to winter crops including grains (1998: 269 000 hectares).
The 1999 grain and pulse harvest is officially put at 1.6 million tonnes, about the same as in the preceding year despite a 4 percent reduction in the area sown. Wheat production is officially estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, 8 percent less than last year, while coarse grain (maize) production increased sharply. Cereal imports, including food aid pledges amounting to 100 500 tonnes, in 1999/2000 are provisionally estimated at nearly 150 000 tonnes, mainly wheat. Import duty on wheat has been lifted temporarily to facilitate imports. At the same time the country also exports some wheat to neighbouring Uzbekistan (in payment for gas) and Tajikistan.
About half of the population is estimated to live below the poverty line and 15 percent to live in extreme poverty. The payment of wages and social benefits are often delayed and a part of the food aid is being used to make timely payments of benefits to low-income families. Official data indicate that per caput consumption of basic foodstuffs is recovering steadily. However, the availability of cash remains a major constraint, particularly in the health and education sectors.
Seasonably dry conditions in January continued to assist farmers with second season rice preparations, which is planted in Jan/Feb for harvest in May/June. The second rice crop is largely irrigated and contributes around 15 percent of average annual paddy production of around 1.7 million tonnes. In mid-January there was an earthquake, measuring 5.9 on the Richter in the north, though no damage to agriculture nor property has so far been reported.
For vulnerable sectors of the population, project food aid continues to be needed to support well-targeted project interventions in areas affected by reduced rice production in 1998/99. Based on earlier FAO/WFP estimates 251 000 people needed around 12 000 tonnes of assistance last year for an average duration of 4 months. Some 8 000 tonnes have been pledged and delivered during the past marketing year.
The prospects for the 2000 winter harvest in June/July remain favourable so far. However, domestic cereal production usually covers only about 10 percent of consumption requirements. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 1999 is estimated at 62 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year.
Imports of wheat in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.51 million tonnes, slightly above last year.
Heavy rains in December/January, attributed to the La Ni�a weather anomaly, may have caused some damage to plantation crops, though no reports of damage to food crops have been reported. The rice crop is due for harvest from January to around March in Sabah and Sarawak. The northeast monsoon normally begins retreating by mid-January, except in Sabah and Sarawak which are expected to receive between 30 to 40 percent more than normal rainfall this year. The areas are important for producing pepper and cocoa.
The country produces an average of around 2 million tonnes of paddy annually, of which 60 percent is from the main and 40 percent from the off season crop.
The main staple food crop produced in the country is wheat, which is planted around June for harvest in Oct/November. Official reports indicate that grain production improved in 1999 compared to previous years, which had been affected by unfavourable weather and the declining importance of state agriculture. Total grain production, is officially reported to have increased by around 17 000 tonnes, whilst potato output was around 8 000 tonnes higher. The main reasons for the rise were an increase in area harvested and early harvesting of crops. Aggregate 1999 wheat production is put at 190 000 tonnes, which still, however, remains lower than the 245 000 tonnes produced on average in the period 1994-98.
To help the country during its transition, various multi- lateral and bi-lateral aid packages have been announced. Last year, international donors pledged a record $320 million in aid to stimulate the economy and promote foreign investment. The aid is primarily directed at infrastructure development and banking reforms which will improve the environment for investment. There are also positive trends in foreign investment which is expected to increase. The main sectors for investment are agro-processing (meat and milk products, camel wool, cashmere and leather processing) and tourism.
In 1999 around 45 000 tonnes of food aid were provided to the country from various donors to assist vulnerable groups, together with 48 000 tonnes of wheat seed.
Main crop rice in the country is planted with the onset of the monsoon rains around May/June for harvest in the period October to December. The dry season rice crop, which is irrigated, is planted in Nov/Dec for harvest in April/May. Total 1999/2000 paddy production is estimated at 17.5 million tonnes, slightly below average and around 2 percent below the previous year.
Earlier, the rice export target for 1999/2000 (April/March) was increased to 500 000 tonnes, in response to favourable procurement by the Government trading agency (MAPT). In 1998/99 MAPT procured 1.1 million tonnes of milled rice, of which around 600 000 tonnes, was for distribution to government employees. In addition to carry overstocks there was approximately half a million tonnes available for export. However, as export demand has been weak, it is unlikely that the target will be met before the end of the current marketing year in March.
An earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter scale affected eastern parts of the country, in late January. There were no reports of serious damage. The main crop currently is wheat, which will be harvested from April/May. In 1999, the country produced a slightly above-average wheat crop of around 967 000 tonnes. The 1999 paddy crop, which is harvested around Oct/Nov, was around 3.6 million tonnes, 4 percent above average and 6 percent higher than 1998.
The main crop is currently winter (rabi) wheat, which is planted around October/November for harvest in March/April. The crop is mostly irrigated. Less important rabi crops include barley, though relatively little, around 150 000 tonnes, is produced on average annually. In view of favourable weather in January, following dry conditions earlier, and an increase in 1999/2000 support prices for wheat, official expectations are that production could increase to around 20 million tonnes this year compared to 18 million tonnes in 1999.
Latest reports indicate that the 1999/2000 rice crop was a record 4.9 million tonnes, from an area of 2.4 million hectares. Rice exports in 1999/2000 are projected at 2 million tonnes, whilst wheat imports are put at around 3.2 million tonnes (July/June).
Heavy rains and floods in Mindanao in the south in late January, killed at least 11 people and displaced a further 20 000. There is possibility that casualties and the estimate of damage will increase. Although heavy crop damage is reported, as yet the full damage is not known. The Office of Civil Defense has recommend a provision of 40.0 million pesos, for emergency relief and rehabilitation for affected families.
The main crops in the ground are currently dry season rice and maize, planted in Oct-Dec for harvest from April/May. Latest projections, indicate that output of the paddy crop will be around 5.4 million tonnes, some 2 percent higher than 1999. Overall, an increase in area planted and higher expected yields, indicate that paddy production could be around 12.5 million tonnes this (2000) calendar year, similar to last year's record 11.8 million tonnes. Production in 1998 was severely affected by El Ni�o related weather anomalies. Much however, will depend on the weather during the remainder of the year, especially during the main wet season from July to December.
1999 maize output was 4.6 million tonnes, around 9 percent above the five-year average and 20 percent higher than the previous year. Due to heavy rains which resulted in a decrease in area planted, first quarter maize production is projected at 1.1 million tonnes, some 14 percent lower than in the same period in 1999. In view of the shortfall, it is expected that additional maize imports will be necessary to meet demand in the feed sector.
Following recent good rainfall, prospects improved for the 2000 wheat crop, to be harvested in April/May. Production of wheat in 1999 is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, about 17 percent below the previous year's output. The low to moderate rains throughout January in most of the country are expected to be suitable for breeding desert locusts and low numbers are likely to be present near Jizan where numbers could gradually increase.
Import of cereals in 1999/2000 (July/June) is currently forecast at about 6.9 million tonnes, similar to last year.
The main crop is currently the main Maha rice crop, which is planted from Oct to Dec for harvest from March onwards. Maha planting coincides with the arrival of the northeast monsoon, the country's main rainy season. Of total rice production, approximately two thirds comes from the Maha crop and a third from the irrigated Yala crop, which is harvested in August/September. Overall 1998/99 paddy production was 2.7 million tonnes, some 9 percent higher than the five year average and marginally above the previous year.
In addition to rice, the country's main staple, some 850 - 900 000 tonnes of wheat are imported annually to meet demand for bread and other wheat based products.
The prospects for winter grain crops to be harvested from mid- May have improved due to recent favourable rains. Crop and livestock production in 1999 were seriously affected by the worst drought in decades. As a result, barley production, which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 380 000 tonnes, around 72 percent below the previous five-year average. Wheat production, 40 percent of which is irrigated, is estimated at 2.74 million tonnes, about 28 percent below average. The drought also devastated range vegetation leading to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected household incomes and exposed a large number of the Badia (nomadic) population to food shortages.
Domestic wheat utilization in 1999/2000 (July/June), estimated at about 3.6 million tonnes, are anticipated to be met from current production and existing stocks. Government imports of barley are estimated at only 150 000 tonnes. As part of an emergency measure, private sector imports of barley have been authorized in 1999.
An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in October 1999 by FAO and WFP to assist 329 000 herders in the drought affected areas of the country for six months (October 1999 to March 2000), for a total cost of US$ 5.46 million.
Systematic data on crop production is seriously lacking. Latest (partial) reports indicate serious problems in mobilizing inputs to sow 2000 winter crop and confirm a poor grain harvest in 1999/2000. Shortages of seed, fuel and machinery have reportedly slowed planting operations and the area sown to winter crops is less than last year. One forecast suggests that the wheat area for harvest in 2000 could fall, by 80 000 hectares to 250 000 hectares.
Reports regarding the 1999 harvest have been very conflicting. The latest indications were that the area sown declined somewhat but that crop yields were much lower in part reflecting heavy rains in July, heavy infestation with smut and yellow rust, inadequate use of quality seed and the poor state of the irrigation system. One report from Khatlon indicates that the average yield fell to 0.9 tonnes per hectare, an extremely low yield given that a substantial proportion of the grain is grown with irrigation and the seeding rate approaches 300 kilograms per hectare.
In the absence of systematic official data, FAO tentatively estimates the 1999 grain crop at only 400 000 tonnes, some twenty percent less than last year's good crop. Production of cotton, the major cash crop also fell, by 16 percent to 316 000 tonnes.
The shortfall in cereal production will have to be met by food aid and commercial imports, the latter mainly from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In 1999/2000, the cereal import requirement is estimated to increase to 455 000 tonnes of which up to 148 000 is likely to be provided as food aid.
The overall food supply situation remains problematical, as poverty is endemic in the country. About 85 percent of the population have incomes below the poverty line and purchasing power remains low. Not all families are able to cover a shortfall in household food production by market purchases. In rural areas, high leasing costs also restrict household food availability. Recent assessments in the Karategin Valley found that large segments of the population were food insecure.
Humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations and assistance to develop agriculture will continue to be necessary.
The main agricultural operations currently ongoing, include planting of second season rice for harvest from May/June. The main rice crop, which accounts for 80 percent of total production, is planted in June/July, to coincide with the arrival of the south west monsoon, for harvest from Oct/Nov. Depending on the final outcome of the current crop, total 1999/2000 paddy production is projected at 23.3 million tonnes, of which 19 million tonnes was from the main, and 4.3 million tonnes from the second crop. The main crop in 1999 was around 500 000 tonnes or 3 percent above 1998. The increase was mostly from the northeast which received more than adequate rainfall and encouraged an increase in area planted.
A total of around 5.7 million tonnes of rice were exported in 1999, 8 percent above 1998.
Despite recent reports of drought conditions in eastern Turkey, the overall prospects for the 2000 winter crop are favourable so far reflecting good rains in the agriculturally important areas. The 1999 wheat production is estimated at 18 million tonnes, about 14 percent below the previous year and about 4 percent below average, due to drought.
The government is planning to set its grain support prices at a maximum of 35 percent higher than world prices rather than the more than twice world prices that caused heavy borrowing to finance grain purchases from farmers. Instead a direct income support system will be adopted to protect farmers.
Two major earthquakes which struck the country in August and November 1999 have killed more than 17 000 people, caused more than 52 000 major injuries and an estimated 630 000 homeless people. The main affected areas in and around Izmit were reported to be mainly industrial but also produce grains and oilseeds.
Turkey's state grain board (TMO) bought from farmers in 1999 a total of 5.1 million tonnes of cereals, comprising 4.2 million tonnes of wheat and 818 000 tonnes of barley.
Reports indicate that the area sown to winter crops has increased sharply to 680 000 hectares and that 190 000 tonnes of quality seed has been used in sowing. Reportedly, virgin land has been bought into production. The grain production target is 1.6 million tonnes. In addition, resources are to be allocated to farmers to expand rice production to 200 000 tonnes per annum in the coming three years. The country is planning further substantial imports of land improvement, irrigation and harvesting equipment in 2000.
The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated at a record 1.5 million tonnes, nearly 300 000 tonnes above 1998, including 226 000 tonnes produced by private farmers. The area sown to grains fell to about 570 000 hectares but the import of high quality seed and increased use of fertilizer raised yields significantly. Given the difficult foreign exchange situation and the large 1999 harvest, cereal imports in 1999/2000 are expected to remain very low. The country has introduced excise duties as of 1 October 1999 to protect domestic production. These include duties of 50 percent on imports of flour and pasta and of US$100 on exports of ammonium nitrate fertilizer.
Good growing conditions also favoured cotton production and output almost doubled to 1.3 million tonnes.
The area sown to winter crops on the large state farms (mainly wheat) increased by 4 percent to 1.36 million hectares. In addition, farmers also have to plant wheat on their household's plots, which would bring the aggregate area sown to wheat up to an estimated 1.46 million hectares. The winter grain production target is 4.1 million tonnes.
The 1999 wheat and barley crop is officially estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, some 140 000 tonnes above 1998. As the country also produces maize and rice, indications are that total 1999 grain production could be around 4.4 million tonnes. Imports of grain are being reduced to maintain a positive trade balance. Cereal imports in 1999/2000 are estimated to fall to about 355 000 tonnes, to be met commercially.
The 1999 cotton harvest increased by over 400 000 tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes.
In the last decade of January, heavy showers resulted in localized flooding in central parts of the country, where the main crop activity includes planting of winter spring rice, for harvest from April/May. Rice planting in central/coastal parts has also been delayed due slow drainage of earlier flood waters in the Mekong River Delta basin. The winter spring crop is the largest of the three rice crops produced each year, contributing some 36 percent to aggregate rice production in 1998/99. Total 1998/99 paddy production was around 31 million tonnes, some 10 percent above the average of the previous five years.
Rice exports in 1999 totaled some 4.5 million tonnes, some 18 percent above the previous year. Prior to 1989, the country was a net importer of rice but since the onset of liberalization and market reforms, around 26 million tonnes have been exported in the ten year period between 1989 to 99. As an important foreign exchange commodity, the importance of rice cultivation has increased with area cultivated rising from around 5.7 million hectares in 1989 to 7.4 million hectares last year.
The output of the 1999 sorghum crop recently harvested is estimated at 416 000 tonnes, some 12 percent lower than the previous year, due to reduced planted area.
Small scale breeding of desert locust may be in progress in few places along the Red Sea coastal plains.
Imports of cereals in 1999, mainly wheat, are estimated at some 2.7 million tonnes.
Back
to the table of contents