FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 01/00 - BELARUS (3 February)
Official reports indicate that the area sown to winter grains is above target at 1.155 million hectares. That sown to wheat increased by 4 percent to 240 000 hectares. Winter grains are reported to be in a satisfactory condition and more fertilizer has been applied. The government hopes that increased use of fertilizer and better weather conditions will result in grain harvest of at least 5 million tonnes in 2000. Official procurement prices for meat and milk are to be increased sharply in January/February, to enable farms to finance spring sowing.
The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, almost 40 percent below the five-year average, and 25 percent less than the poor harvest of 1998. This record low output is the combined result of severe economic problems and adverse weather. Production could also be under-reported given the degree of market interference exercised by the government and the consequent shortages of most items in the official distribution chain. Output in agriculture has fallen sharply since 1997 in part due to the poor financial situation of the largely unreformed state farms. Extensive government credits and subsidies coupled with fixed, state controlled prices for output in a climate of rapid inflation has severely undermined farms' financial situation.
Following the second poor cereal harvest in succession, the country needs to import cereals for human consumption and animal feed. Food needs are likely to be met but the availability of foreign exchange constraints could limit the volume of feedgrain purchased. Aggregate cereal imports in 1999/2000 are tentatively estimated to increase by 500 000 tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes. On 1 January 2000, the Belarus rouble was redenominated with one new rouble replacing 1000 old Belarussian roubles.
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