FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 01/00 - CHINA (1 February)
Despite cold weather in the south which adversely affected winter wheat in some less important producing areas, overall widespread precipitation increased moisture supplies for winter wheat across main wheat producing areas in north central parts of the country. Official reports indicate that the area under winter wheat ( planted Oct/Nov for harvest from April/May) declined to 23.7 million hectares, some 7 percent lower than 1998. The decline in area planted is mainly attributed to lower producer prices and substitution to other crops considered more profitable, such as oilseeds and vegetables. Lower prices and sizeable stocks in the country, are also likely to result in a decline in the area planted of maize in 2000, and farmers are likely to substitute more soya, vegetables or ground-nuts for maize.
The grain production target has officially been revised down to 490 million tonnes from estimated production of 500 million tonnes (including roots and tubers) in 1999. The downward revision is officially attributed to large grain stocks in the country and lower prices of some commodities and lower area planted.
Wheat imports in 1999 are expected to be significantly lower than 1998, when main producing areas were adversely affected by serious drought.
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