FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 01/00 - INDONESIA* (1 February)
Seasonably heavy showers over main rice producing areas in Java, in the first half of January increased moisture supplies for main-season rice, planted from Oct/Jan for harvest from March/April. The target for paddy (unmilled) rice production in the current year, has been set at 50 million tonnes (around 33 million tonnes milled), similar to output in 1999.
Following the Asia financial crisis and El Niņo related weather disturbances that affected domestic food production in 1997/98, leaving large numbers of people vulnerable to food shortages, food supply prospects are forecast to improve. This is due to indications of economic recovery, which is having a positive impact on exchange rates and food prices and the return of greater consumer and investor confidence in the economy. Agricultural production is also anticipated to be satisfactory in 1999/2000, in view of greater economic stability, increasing consumer confidence and specific Government programmes and efforts at increasing domestic food security and self sufficiency. Overall rice supplies are anticipated to remain satisfactory up to the harvest of the main paddy crop from March, with prices likely to remain competitive in view of imports and prospects of a reasonable harvest. In late 1998 the Government allowed private imports of rice. As import prices, especially of lower quality grades (25 percent and AI) remained much lower than domestic prices through out 1999, in September private imports were restricted to 5 percent broken or above only, to prevent further fall in domestic prices. However, as imported rice, still remained cheaper and sizeable private imports continued in October and November, further depressing prices, at the end of 1999 the Government imposed a 30 percent tax on imported rice to prevent further falls. The import levy came into effect on 1 January 2000. Total rice imports in 1999 are estimated at 4 million tonnes, significantly lower than around 6 million tonnes imported in 1998.
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