FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 01/00 - THE UKRAINE (4 February)

The area sown to winter crops in the public sector reached 7.3 million hectares, marginally less than in the preceding year. However, crop establishment was hindered by late sowing and dry soils and up to 1.5 million hectares of the 7 million hectares sown to winter cereals may need to be replanted in the spring. This is twice the area affected by winterkill for the 1999 harvest and will adversely affect the harvest outcome. Heavy snowfall in January helped replenish moisture reserves. Early Indications are that spring plantings could increase somewhat.

The aggregate 1999 grain harvest is estimated by FAO at 27 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes less than last years' poor 29 million tonnes. This poor result is mainly due to hot and dry conditions in June and July, which exacerbated the effects of economic difficulties, shortages of inputs, heavy weed infestation and untimely frosts in May. Output of wheat is estimated by FAO at 15 million tonnes, about 2 million tonnes less than last year, and that of coarse grains at 11.3 million tonnes compared to 11.4 million tonnes in the preceding year. Many regions placed controls to the free movement of grain and efforts by the government and regional authorities to recover debts owed by farms have resulted in understatement in actual yields. The validity of this year's harvest estimates may also have been affected by persistent rumours of hryvnia devaluation after the elections and well- publicized moves by the government to regulate grain exports. For these reasons, FAO's estimate is about 10 percent higher than the official estimates (24.4 million tonnes, including 13.5 million tonnes of wheat and 10.2 million tonnes of coarse grains).

Following the second poor harvest in succession and large exports (5.8 million tonnes in 1998/99 and of 2.7 million tonnes between in the first half of the current marketing year), some grain deficit areas in the country may need to import cereals. To ensure the availability of an adequate quantity of wheat, the government has passed a law waiving the import duty on up to 1.5 million tonnes of cereals provided they are imported before 1 September 2000. Imports are to be financed from regional resources. The presence of hidden stocks of cereals and financial considerations are likely to keep imports well below this level. Indications are that in 1999/2000 food needs will be covered but that the availability of animal feed will remain constrained. Despite the tight domestic situation, exports have continued, fuelled by rumours that the government intends to introduce a 30 percent export duty on cereals. (It has already imposed an export duty of 23 percent on sunflowerseed). FAO tentatively forecasts 1999/2000 cereal exports at 3.2 million tonnes, including 2.1 million tonnes of wheat.

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