FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 01/00 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (15 February)

The early outlook for the winter grains in 2000 is satisfactory. The area sown to winter crops (13.9 million hectares) includes some 12.6 million hectares sown to grains. This is below target, and some 600 000 hectares less than in the preceding year, but the condition of the crop is significantly better. The proportion of winter grain area in total grain area is increasing steadily as the latter declines but, nevertheless, it accounted for less than 30 percent in 1999. The outlook for the overall harvest indicates that only 60 percent of the area to be planted in the spring has been ploughed, increasing spring farm work. Some seed shortages are also reported. On the positive side, the sector as a whole worked at a profit for the first time in 4 years, with a profit of 6 billion roubles comparing favourably with the loss of 36 billion roubles in 1998. In part, this reflects increased demand for domestic food produce, following sharp rouble devaluation in 1998, which made imported food more expensive. The government hopes that the 2000 grain harvest will reach 75 million tonnes, i.e. 15- 20 million tonnes more than the official estimate (54.7 million tonnes) for 1999, and enough to cover domestic requirements and replenish stocks somewhat.

FAO estimates the 1999 grain harvest at 60 million tonnes, some 5 million tonnes more than the drought reduced output of 1998, but still below average. FAO's estimate is higher than the official estimate reflecting official and unofficial statements that the harvest has been underestimated by at least 5 million tonnes and possibly by up to 15-20 percent. Output of wheat is now estimated by FAO at 34 million tonnes, 4 million tonnes more than in 1998. However, the proportion of food quality wheat, at 62 percent, was lower than in 1998 (76 percent). Coarse grain production is estimated by FAO to have increased by 2.5 million tonnes to 24.6 million tonnes, while production of rice increased by 6 percent to 444 000 tonnes. The pulse harvest is estimated at about 1 million tonnes.

Despite the somewhat larger harvest, the overall supply situation remains tight and there is no scope to rebuild stocks drawn down in 1998/99. At the aggregate level, human consumption needs are expected to be covered, but the availability of livestock feed is likely to remain constrained pointing to a further reduction in livestock numbers and output. Restrictions on the movement of grain by regional authorities are aggravating the supply situation. Cereal prices, which remained stable until the beginning of this year, are also rising in response to a 15 percent increase in the cost of rail transport of grain from Kazakhstan, a major supplier.

Total cereal utilization in 1999/2000 is estimated to decline by 3 million tonnes to 71 million tonnes, including 21 million tonnes for direct food use, 0.5 million tonnes for export to neighbouring republics, and the balance for seed, feed, losses, industrial processing and (minimum) closing stocks. Against this requirement, domestic availability of cereals (production and stocks) is estimated at 65 million tonnes, leaving a minimum import requirement of 6 million tonnes. Food aid pledges in the 1999/2000 marketing year to date have been limited to 300 000 tonnes of wheat (plus another 200 000 tonnes of wheat and processed commodities for targeted distribution). In addition, the adjusted food aid pledges carried forward from 1998/99 amount to 2.8 million tonnes, leaving a balance of just under 3 million tonnes to be covered by commercial imports. A larger volume of cereal was imported commercially in 1996/97 and 1997/98. The commercial import capacity has improved since the financial meltdown in August 1998 and the country has a substantial balance of trade surplus.

The plight of many of the 300 000 or so people displaced in Chechnya or in neighbouring countries continues to deteriorate and is desperate for those living in refugee camps. Many are short of adequate shelter, food, clothing, heating and medical supplies. Bitterly cold winter conditions in the mountains and poor shelter is leading to disease. The government of Ingushetia, a small country of 300 000 inhabitants, which is hosting around 200 000 refugees, has requested international assistance to feed and shelter refugees. The difficult security situation is impeding the transport and distribution of assistance.

The food security of the civilian population trapped in Chechnya and particularly in the capital, Grozny, is rapidly deteriorating and the outlook for winter grain and fodder crops is bleak. Reports indicate that only a small fraction of the arable area is either sown to winter crops or ploughed. The situation in agriculture is critical, with severe damage inflicted to the livestock and grape growing industry.

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