FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 01/00 - YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (3 February)

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (3 February)

Shortages of inputs, working capital and delays in harvesting the 1999 crop have prevented the ambitious winter crop sowing target of 1.1 million hectares being met. Current indications are that the area sown to winter crops could remain close to last year's level of about 840 000 hectares. Latest reports indicate that 730 000 hectares, only 3 percent more than last year, have been sown to wheat, the major winter grain. Growing conditions to date have been mostly satisfactory but rapid inflation and the shortage of inputs are likely to keep yields low. Shortages of fuel and fertilizer, following the damage incurred during the conflict last year, have led to sharply higher prices for these commodities.

In 1999, a record maize harvest of 7.5 million tonnes offset the poor wheat harvest of only 2.1 million tonnes, and aggregate output is officially estimated at just over 10 million tonnes, about 14 percent above average. The country has an exportable surplus of up to 1 million tonnes of maize in 1999/2000.

The country is in a state of acute economic crisis in the wake of the conflict over Kosovo and several years of economic sanctions. There are 1.1 million refugees, internally displaced and economically and socially deprived people who require targeted food assistance through the winter. The food needs for these populations were included in the recent UN Consolidated Appeal for South East Europe. Against WFP's request for 188 000 tonnes of food aid, less than 30 000 tonnes have been pledged to date.

An FAO Crop Assessment Mission visited the Kosovo Province in early January and estimated the winter wheat area to be 79 000 hectares, 36 percent more than the area planted in 1998 but about 10 percent less than the normal area before the civil disturbances of the past two years.

WFP continues to provide food assistance for a caseload of about 600 000 persons in the Province and other organizations for about 400 000. During the spring and early summer (April- June) however, the number of people in need of food aid within Kosovo is likely to decrease as business and employment opportunities (both formal and informal) and household incomes improve. It is anticipated that most of the existing IDPs will return to their homes at the end of winter; those that do not return will be reclassified as short-term social cases as their primary need will be to access employment or other income generating opportunities. Depending upon the speed and scale of recovery of the non- agricultural sectors of the economy, an overall caseload reduction to a total of 620,000 beneficiaries is expected from April.

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