FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2000 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:
570 000 sq.km
Climate:
North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons: March-May and November December.
Population:
31.10 million (1999 estimate), GNP per caput US$ 330 (1998)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:
Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:
October/September
Lean season:
June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


The 2000 main "long rains" cropping season has began and the outlook is uncertain so far due to continued drought conditions in most regions.

Harvesting of the 1999/2000 secondary "short rains" cereal crop, accounting for some 20 percent of annual production, is complete. Late and insufficient rains resulted in reduction in planting and negatively affected yields. Current estimates put the short rains maize crop at 315 000 tonnes, compared with the previous five year average of about 410 000 tonnes. The output of the main "long rains" cereal crop, harvested until last October, was significantly reduced, particularly in Eastern, Central, Western and Nyanza Provinces due to drought, inadequate input supply and armyworm infestation in parts. Official estimates indicate maize output of about 2.1 million tonnes compared to 2.44 million tonnes in 1998 and 2.5 million tonnes average over the previous five years.

The food supply situation is critical in the northern, eastern and north-western pastoral districts and parts of Central, Coast and Rift Valley provinces affected by drought during the 1999/2000 "short rains" season. In the pastoral areas, the short rains are crucial for the replenishment of water supplies and pastures after the long dry season, while in agricultural areas, crops from the short rains provide the bulk of food supplies. Worst affected districts include Turkana, Mandera, Moyale, Garissa, Kajiado, Machakos, Mbeere, Kitui, Wajir, Mwingi, Tana River, Marsabit, Isiolo, Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot, Makueni, and Tharaka Nithi. Prices of maize, the major staple in the country have increased sharply in most parts affecting the livelihood of large number of people. In January, maize prices were up to 50 percent higher than the average for the previous five years. Increased malnutrition and health problems were also reported.

An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in January 2000 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 2.74 million drought affected people, worth US$ 43.4 million for a period of five months. The Government has also appealed in February for about US$62 million to combat the looming food shortage and distributed 5 400 tonnes of maize to 25 food-insecure districts.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1999/2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 241 49 2 587 2 877
Normal Imports 311 57 312 680
of which: Structural food aid 74 - - 74
1999/2000 Domestic Availability 335 33 2 366 2 734
1999 Production (rice in paddy terms) 135 50 2 346 2 531
1999 Production (rice in milled terms) 135 33 2 346 2 514
Possible stock drawdown 200 - 20 220
1999/2000 Utilization 725 233 3 366 4 324
Food Use 705 213 3 107 4 025
of which: local purchase requirement - - 5 5
Non-food use 20 20 259 299
Exports or Re-exports - - - -
Possible stock build up - - - -
1999/2000 Import Requirement 390 200 1 000 1 590
Anticipated commercial imports 300 200 880 1 380
Food aid needs 90 - 120 210
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges 5 - 4 9
of which: Delivered 5 - 4 9
Donor-financed purchases - - 1 1
of which: for local use - - 1 1
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) 22 7 97 126
Indexes        
1999 production as % of normal:       88
1999/2000 import requirement as % of normal:       234
1999/2000 food aid requirement as % of normal:       230


FAO/GIEWS - April 2000

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