FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2000 MADAGASCAR 26

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MADAGASCAR

Area:
582 000 sq.km
Climate:
Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rainy season: October-March; tropical cyclones
Population:
14.78 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 260 (1998)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:
Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops:
Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year:
April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Relief operations continue in Madagascar following Cyclones Eline on 17 February and Gloria on 2 March. Several villages remain isolated by floodwaters and by severe damage to transport infrastructure. Preliminary estimates indicate 10 000 people homeless and 560 000 affected to varying degrees. Worst affected areas are north and central parts of the East Coast including the areas around the cities of Andapa, Antalaha, Vatomandry and Mahanoro, as well as Belo-Tsiribihina and Morondava on the West Coast. The food situation in these areas is critical and there is urgent need of food and non-food assistance. The Government has appealed for international assistance to cope with the emergency.

A full assessment of crop losses and agricultural damage has not yet been undertaken, but preliminary indications point to almost total crop losses in low-lying areas. Serious damage to coffee plantations by heavy winds in the major growing areas of the eastern coast is reported, including those around Andapa/Samabava and Mahanoro. Banana, orange, avocado and cocoa trees have also been seriously affected. These cash crops play an important role in the food economies of farm families. Thousands of hectares of rice along the eastern coast strip north of Mahanoro, around Belo and Morondova on the western coast and around Antananarivo are completely flooded. The prolonged submersion and the siltation of the paddy fields could result in serious crop loss in these areas. Severe damage and losses of food stocks in households will further diminish food supplies.

The losses and yield reductions caused by the cyclones have worsened the already unfavourable prospects for the paddy crop, affected by earlier dry weather. Production is forecast to decline sharply from the good level of 1999 and the food supply situation is expected to tighten in the next marketing year.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment will visit the country in mid-April, to assess the crop losses and the food supply situation and to estimate the country's cereal import requirements for 2000/01 (April/March), including food aid needs of the affected population.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1999/2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 7 2 476 152 2 635
Normal Imports 48 53 10 111
of which: Structural food aid 13 11 10 34
1999/2000 Domestic Availability 9 1 792 164 1 965
1999 Production (rice in paddy terms) 9 2 635 161 2 805
1999 Production (rice in milled terms) 9 1 792 161 1 962
Possible stock drawdown - - 3 3
1999/2000 Utilization 89 1 877 169 2 135
Food Use 88 1 852 136 2 076
of which: local purchase requirement - - 3 3
Non-food use 1 10 23 34
Exports or Re-exports - - 10 10
Possible stock build up - 15 - 15
1999/2000 Import Requirement 80 85 5 170
Anticipated commercial imports 75 75 5 155
Food aid needs 5 10 - 15
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges 4 1 4 8
of which: Delivered 3 1 2 6
Donor-financed purchases - - 3 3
of which: for local use - - 3 3
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) 6 125 9 141
Indexes        
1999 production as % of normal:       106
1999/2000 import requirement as % of normal:       153
1999/2000 food aid requirement as % of normal:       44


FAO/GIEWS - April 2000

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