In the pre-crisis baseline, global net trade in cereals rises by 75 percent and trade in livestock products nearly doubles by 2020, with increased Asian imports accounting for much of this growth, and U.S. and European exports expanding rapidly. Some of the shifts in demand are dramatic: in developing countries. Asia, for example, increases in cereal imports will be almost 350 percent, while eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union become large net exporters instead of large importers by 2020.
But if the crisis continues to be severe, global net cereal trade will decline by 20 million tons (6 million if the crisis turns out to be moderate) and net imports by developing countries will decline by 13 million tons (3 million if the crisis is moderate) compared with the baseline projections. Asia would reduce its imports the most; its net imports of cereals would be 21 percent below pre-crisis levels. Within Asia, Southeast Asian net cereal imports would contract by 55 percent.
How the Asian economic crisis plays out will also have a decisive impact on the direction and magnitude of global livestock trade and export earnings of developed countries. Under the severe crisis scenario, China and several Southeast Asian countries will shift from import to export positions in livestock, virtually eliminating growth in developed-country livestock exports. The sharp reductions in meat exports and smaller cutbacks in other agricultural exports, combined with lower world commodity prices, would result in large reductions in the agricultural export earnings of developed countries. The USA, for example, would lose US$12 billion annually in exports of cereals, meat and dairy products, soybeans, oils, oil cakes, and roots and tubers while western Europe and other developed countries would earn US$10 billion less in exports of these commodities.