FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/00 - BELARUS (23 March)
Despite upbeat official reports on the outlook for winter grains, the overall situation in agriculture is very problematic. Official reports indicate that the area sown to winter grains is above target at 1.155 million hectares; that sown to wheat increased by 4 percent to 240 000 hectares. Growing conditions have been favourable to date and winter grains are reported to be in a satisfactory condition. The outlook for spring grain plantings, however, is clouded by shortages of working capital, fuel, fertilizer, pesticides and operational machinery. The country’s agricultural system is still largely unreformed and is being strangled by government-controlled input and output prices in an economic context of budget deficits and rapid inflation. The government hopes that increased use of fertilizer and better weather conditions will result in a grain harvest of at least 5 million tonnes in 2000.
In 1999, agricultural output fell by 10 percent and over one third of agricultural enterprises worked at a loss. Severe economic problems and adverse weather reduced the grain harvest to 3.6 million tonnes, almost 40 percent below the average of the last five years, and 25 percent less than the poor harvest of 1998. Production could be under-reported given the degree of market interference exercised by the government and the consequent shortages of most items in the official distribution chain. Output of livestock products also decreased, significantly in the case of milk. Over 80 percent of the population have salaries below the poverty line.
Following the second poor cereal harvest in succession, the country needs to import cereals for human consumption and animal feed. Food needs are likely to be met but foreign exchange constraints could limit the volume of feedgrains purchased, pointing to a further decline in livestock production in 2000. Aggregate cereal imports in 1999/2000 could double to 1.5 million tonnes.
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