FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/00 - EC (5 April)
Weather conditions for developing winter crops and for early spring crop planting are reported to have been generally satisfactory so far, with the exception of the Mediterranean areas where precipitation has been below normal in the past two months. Latest indications continue to point to an increase in the aggregate cereal area for the 2000 harvest, largely at the expense of oilseeds. The overall wheat area is forecast to increase by about 4 percent to some 17.6 million hectares and, based on the overall weather conditions for the season so far, early indications suggest that average yields may be somewhat higher than in the previous year. Yields are expected to increase especially in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, while dry conditions in Italy, Portugal and Spain could limit the potential in these countries. FAO forecasts this year�s aggregate wheat output in the Community at about 105 million, 7 percent up from 1999. For coarse grains, while conditions for the winter barley crops in the northern latitudes are reported to be good so far, much will depend still on the outcome of spring/summer planting, which is only just starting. At this early stage, FAO tentatively forecasts the Community�s aggregate coarse grains crop in 2000 at about 104 million tonnes, marginally up from 1999. The paddy season is getting underway among the producing countries, and the area is expected to remain at about 400 000 hectares, the level at which it has stabilized since 1996. Assuming normal weather, output is also expected to remain close to the normal for the past few years at about 2.6 million tonnes.
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