FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/00 - EAST TIMOR (12 April)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited East Timor between 30 March and 7 April to assess current crop and food supply prospects for the 2000/2001 marketing year (April/March). This mission follows an earlier FAO/WFP assessment last November, which followed intense violence and large-scale population displacement in the aftermath of the referendum for independence on 30 August. At that time, it was estimated that many people were killed whilst almost the entire population was either internally displaced or exiled as refugees to West Timor. Infrastructure, essential services and property were also severely damaged, seriously affecting commercial and economic activities. In the agriculture sector the main repercussions of the civil unrest were the direct loss of food and seed stocks, loss of productive assets and displacement of the farming population. These in turn affected planting of main season crops in November/December.
The March/April mission observed, that although these factors did affect agricultural operations, especially in delaying planting, the overall consequences on output are likely to be less pronounced than may have been expected given the level of disruption that had occurred to the sector. Although maize planting was later, this season, compared to the optimum planting date, the delay itself will not seriously affect yields, especially as overall rainfall has been favourable due to La Ni�a. In addition, there was no major delay in rice planting, as the planting period can span from January to March, depending on the rainfall regime in a given year and locality. However to some extent there were additional constraints in rice planting compared to normal, due to lack of animal and mechanised draft power and a labour constraint as farmers had to complete maize planting before they could commence with rice. This however, is unlikely to affect productivity given favourable rains overall, and an extended season as rainfall is still continuing. In view of these factors, the output of maize and rice is expected to be satisfactory and certainly better than the severely reduced crop in 1997/98, due to El Ni�o drought.
Despite a reasonably satisfactory food supply situation overall, the disruption to the economy, especially markets, and the loss of productive assets and income generating activities will leave large numbers of people vulnerable to food insecurity over the next year. The problems of internal disruption in marketing, destruction of roads and transport, being heavily compounded by the sudden cessation of access to trading, distribution and supply routes to West Timor and the rest of Indonesia. Hitherto, these were essential for a wide range of economic functions, such as wage labour, input supply and trading. The loss of this economic interaction, will particularly affect the livelihood of people in cities such as Suai, Maliana, and Ermera in the western region. Moreover, in rice marketing the end of BULOG (the former National Logistics Agency), has left a large vacuum in the way rice is procured and traded, whilst at village level a large number of traders, who bought from farmers and sold to local markets, have now left. Consequently, there are already concerns that producers will have considerable problems in marketing and storing surpluses of rice and, in particular maize, which this year, will be more susceptible to storage losses. The withdrawal of subsidised rice through BULOG as well as other historical social-safety nets will also increase vulnerability to food shortages. This will be compounded by the significant reduction in formal employment, particularly in the public sector, which was of considerable importance in the past. Food assistance, therefore, will continue to be needed for the most vulnerable sectors of society until there is more economic stability and increased purchasing power. In addition, significant international assistance is still required to rehabilitate agriculture and allied services such as marketing and input delivery. With appropriate interventions, there is considerable scope to increase productivity in agriculture which remains highly underdeveloped. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Report is being finalised.
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