FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/00 - THE UKRAINE (27 March)
The area sown to winter crops reached 7.9 million hectares. Although crop establishment was hindered by late sowing and dry soils, good overwintering conditions have improved crop conditions and less than the earlier envisaged 1.1 million hectares may need to be resown. Heavy snowfalls have replenished soil moisture reserves.
The outlook for spring grain plantings, just underway in some southern areas, is uncertain. Reorganization of the former state farms in the wake of a government decree of 3 December 1999, without proper resolution of the problem of debts to private input providers, has left between one quarter and one half of farms with little sound basis for negotiating credit for inputs. The Government has allocated funds for up to 50 percent interest compensation but due to the proven high risks, banks and many input providers are wary of lending to producers. Shortages and the high price of fuel have recently been relieved by imports, without duty or taxes, but even so fuel dealers want up to 4.7 tonnes of wheat in exchange for 1 tonne of diesel on credit. Overall, the high risks/costs associated with credit and the poor solvency of farms could compromise this year�s harvest.
The aggregate 1999 grain harvest is estimated by FAO at 27 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes less than the preceding year�s 29 million tonnes. Current indications are that poor solvency of farms may not result in a 2000 grain harvest which is significantly higher. Following the second poor harvest in succession and large exports (5.8 million tonnes in 1998/99 and 2.5 million tonnes up to January 2000), FAO tentatively forecasts 1999/2000 cereal exports at 3.1 million tonnes, including 2.1 million tonnes of wheat, and cereal imports at less than 0.5 million tonnes, mainly wheat and rice.