FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/00 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (6 April)

The early outlook for winter grains in 2000 is good. The area sown to winter crops, now officially estimated at 14.16 million hectares) includes some 13.4 million hectares sown to grains, marginally more than in the preceding year. The condition of the crop is significantly better this year. The area affected by winterkill (at 7-10 percent) is expected to be below average and about half that in the preceding year. Spring fieldwork has started in southern areas. Soil moisture reserves are good, but there is a backlog of ploughing and some seed shortages are also reported. The financial situation of the sector as a whole improved in 1999 and the government has taken measures to improve access to fertilizers and plant protection chemicals. Nevertheless, shortages of inputs (credit, operational machinery, fuel and working capital) are likely to continue to constrain yields. The spring crop planting target is 60 million hectares, including 37.5 million hectares of grain.

FAO estimates the 1999 grain harvest at 60 million tonnes, some 6 million tonnes more than the drought reduced output of 1998, but still below average. Despite the somewhat larger harvest, the overall supply situation remains tight and there is no scope to rebuild stocks drawn down in 1998/99. At the aggregate level, human consumption needs are being covered, but livestock feed is scarce, pointing to a further reduction in output. Cereal prices, which remained stable until the beginning of this year, are also rising.

Total cereal utilization in 1999/2000 is estimated to decline by 1.0 million tonnes to 72 million tonnes, including 21 million tonnes for direct food use, 0.5 million tonnes for export to neighbouring republics, and the balance for seed, feed, losses, industrial processing and (minimum) closing stocks. Against this requirement, domestic availability of cereals (production and stocks) is estimated at barely 65 million tonnes, leaving an import requirement of 7.9 million tonnes. Food aid pledges in the 1999/2000 marketing year to date have been limited to 300 000 tonnes of wheat (plus another 200 000 tonnes of wheat and processed commodities for targeted distribution). In addition, the adjusted food aid pledges carried forward from 1998/99 amount to 2.8 million tonnes, leaving a balance of 4.7 million tonnes to be covered by commercial imports. In the first eight months of the current marketing year some 5.6 million tonnes have been delivered, including 2.4 million tonnes of cereals from Kazakhstan. Some humanitarian food relief is being distributed by private voluntary organizations to public institutions catering for people in need.

Strife in Chechnya has led to destruction of whole towns, villages, essential infrastructure and agriculture. The number of Internally Displaced Persons from Chechnya in Ingushetia fluctuates in accordance with the intensity of the hostilities and some people are beginning to move back. The UN during its Mission in February 2000, estimated the number at 185 000, approximately 75 percent of whom stay with host families, whose members number 70 000. The burden of the large number of IDPs in relation to the population (320 000) has exhausted the basic services which Ingushetia, itself an economically deprived region, can provide and considerable humanitarian assistance is needed over a broad spectrum including food aid, shelter, health and nutrition, water and sanitation, education, income generation and preparatory rehabilitation activities, logistics and coordination. Both the IDPs and the host families were found to need basic food relief as well as assistance with heath and nutrition. WFP will assume responsibility for the food needs of the 150 000 IDPs in Ingushetia, while UNHCR will target the host families. Distribution is a challenge as refugees are living in 261 different locations in Ingushetia. Health remains a major problem in both Chechnya and Ingushetia, reflecting inadequate water and sanitation facilities.

In Chechnya itself, authorities are distributing food in some Russian controlled areas. Steps are being taken to provide inputs to plant some 80 000 hectares of the 190 000 hectares of land suitable for cropping. However, both the security situation and timely arrival and distribution of the necessary funds and inputs remain problematic. The outlook for food production in Chechnya in the current year is poor, due also to the extent of the damage to the existing infrastructure, livestock and grape industry and the need to first clear mines from arable land.

When the security situation improves, returning populations, without immediate prospects of harvest and employment, will need considerable help.

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