FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.3

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/01 forecast	Change 2000/01 over 1999/2000
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	589	614	597	589	590	0.3
Coarse grains	920	906	912	879	908	3.3
Rice, milled	383	387	390	403	398	-1.3
(paddy)	(571)	(579)	(583)	(603)	(596)	-1.2
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 892	1 906	1 899	1 871	1 896	1.3
Developing countries	1 025	1 005	1 039	1 026	1 025	-0.1
Developed countries	867	901	859	846	872	3.1
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	102	100	98	104	101	-2.2
Coarse grains	91	90	93	99	97	-1.9
Rice (milled)	19	28	25	22	22	-0.1
All cereals	212	218	216	225	221	-1.9
Developing countries	150	159	158	162	161	-0.7
Developed countries	62	58	58	63	60	-5.0
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	5.6	6.2	10.8	7.5
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	575	591	589	595	594	-0.2
Coarse grains	893	897	895	896	907	1.3
Rice (milled)	380	383	392	401	402	0.2
All cereals	1 849	1 871	1 876	1 892	1 903	0.6
Developing countries	1 106	1 111	1 136	1 147	1 151	0.4
Developed countries	743	759	740	745	753	1.0
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Developing countries	173	172	173	173	173	-0.3
Developed countries	129	130	130	130	130	0.3
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	113	135	140	133	129	-3.1
Coarse grains	126	140	149	138	136	-1.6
Rice (milled)	56	55	57	60	56	-6.3
All cereals	295	331	346	331	321	-3.1
Developing countries	174	164	173	172	157	-8.9
Developed countries	121	166	172	159	164	3.3
Stocks as % of world	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . )
cereal consumption	15.7	17.6	18.2	17.4	16.6
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	352	316	315	253	230 6/	-14.2 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	181	142	120	112 8/		-7.4 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	135	112	95	92 8/		-3.2 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.8	11.7	9.3	13.3 8/		46.2 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	(. . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	378	372	360	364
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	803	785	810	807	803	-0.4
Per caput production (kg.) 10/	225	216	220	215	212	-1.5
Cereal imports 2/	69.4	78.5	71.9	70.5	68.2	-3.2
of which: Food aid	4.7	5.5	7.9	6.5
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . )
covered by food aid	6.8	7.0	11.0	9.2

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June shipments. 4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ July/June. 6/ Average of quotations for January-May 2000. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July 1999-May 2000. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1997), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid. 10/ Includes rice on a milled basis.

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.3 - June 2000 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION