FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/00 - AFGHANISTAN* (3 June)
A very serious food crisis has emerged in Afghanistan due to severe drought and continuing economic decline. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply assessment Mission which visited the country from 26 April to 24 May 2000 observed that rainfed crops (wheat and barley) had almost totally failed, except in a few pockets in different regions. Irrigated cereal production was also severely affected by drought, resulting in an estimated reduction of (irrigated) wheat production by some 33 percent compared to 1999. The production of secondary crops (rice, maize, barley) is also estimated to have declined by 53 percent compared to 1999 and 66 percent compared to 1998. Total cereal production in 2000 is estimated at 1.82 million tonnes - down by 44 percent compared to 1999 and by 53 percent compared to 1998. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at a record high level of 2.3 million tonnes, more than double last year�s volume of 1.1 million tonnes. A generous estimate of commercial cereal imports of about 1 million tonnes, some 31 percent higher than the estimate for last year, leaves a huge gap of 1.3 million tonnes. WFP emergency food aid, in pipeline and under mobilisation, amounts to 225 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of over 1.0 million tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude, if unmet, could have disastrous implications for the population.
Millions of Afghans of all categories - sedentary, transhumant and nomad - have little or no access to food through markets and their access to food through self production has been severely undermined by drought. Their purchasing power has been seriously eroded by the lack of employment opportunities within and outside agriculture, decline in cash crop production such as onions, potatoes, almonds, apricots and poppy (that provides employment for many even though for a short period of time) and the poor condition and high rates of mortality of livestock. The situation is likely to worsen in the coming months as the few remaining coping mechanisms are exhausted. In Afghanistan, rains normally start in October/November. Even if precipitation improves in the next season, wheat harvests will not be available until May/June 2001. However, if rains fail again the magnitude and dimensions of the needs for �life saving� alone would be enormous. The Mission stressed that the positive move this year in terms of reduced acreage under poppy, as a result of the efforts of the international community backed by Afghan authorities and facilitated by the drought, may be reversed next year unless people get assistance to have access to food and to find viable alternative economic opportunities, which are becoming increasingly scarce.
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