FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/00 - INDIA (12 June)
Following serious drought and water shortages earlier in several states, the situation is being eased by the timely arrival of the monsoon rains in southern, eastern and south western parts. This also improved prospects for Kharif (summer) crops, with planting of oilseeds, coarse grains and groundnuts having commenced. Rice planting has also begun in the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal. Overall, an increase in rice area compared to last years is being forecast. In normal years, the monsoon usually reaches the south western coast on 1 June, extending to the central and eastern areas before culminating in the north west. Some 80 percent of annual rainfall is received during the monsoon season. Rains should bring relief to the drought affected central western parts in the early part of July as the rains progresses north.
The government target for paddy production in 2000/2001 (Kharif and Rabi) has been set at 135 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes on the previous year. Yields, however, could be affected by the recent removal of subsidies on fertilizer and reduced application rates. Overall 1999/2000 food grain production is likely to be similar to the 203 million tonnes (including pulses) harvested in 1998/99.
This year's drought affected some 50 million people, whilst thousands of cattle died in the western states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, the central state of Madhya Pradesh and the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. In addition, the shortage of water and animal feed have led to the loss of several thousand livestock in these states. In Gujarat, the worst drought in 100 years left more than half the 18 000 villages with serious water shortages, affecting an estimated 10 million people. In addition, the majority of reservoirs in the north and western parts become dry, whilst water levels in tubewells dropped considerably. As a result, there are now reports of sizeable out-migration of people and livestock from the worst affected areas. Due to a poor monsoon in 1999 in the state, both Kharif (monsoon) and Rabi (winter) crop production in the state are likely to fall by around 30 percent. The largest decrease in production will be in rainfed coarse grains, groundnuts and lentils, which are expected to decline by 50 percent or more. In Rajasthan cereal and oilseed production are expected to fall by 23 percent and 17 per cent respectively, whilst 26 of the total 32 districts are reported to be facing shortages of drinking water and food, as well as feed for cattle. In Madhya Pradesh, the problem appears to be comparatively less severe though 7 of the 45 districts, particularly those adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat, have been affected. In Andhra Pradesh, 18 of the 23 districts have been affected, the worst being in Telengana and Rayalaseema regions. Border areas of Orissa state, have also been affected. The problem being exacerbated by the salination of agricultural areas caused by tidal waves following last year's devastating cyclone. As a result, there was no rabi crop this year and large numbers of the state's population continue to depend on food assistance provided by the Government.
From a national perspective, however, the drought is not expected to affect overall food production significantly as many of the areas affected were not in main grain producing areas. Despite the drought, the 2000/01 wheat crop, which is largely irrigated and was recently harvested, is currently estimated at around 70 million tonnes, similar to last year's record crop. This is mainly due to higher output in main producing states (Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh), where weather conditions were generally favourable, off-setting the decline in drought affected states. In addition, the overall food situation remains favourable in view of sizeable stocks following favourable harvests in recent years.
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