FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/00 - SUDAN* (13 June)
Harvesting of the 2000 wheat crop is complete. A recent FAO/GIEWS Crop Assessment Mission estimated wheat output at 214 000 tonnes, some 24 percent above last year’s reduced crop but about 60 percent below the previous five year’s average of about 532 000 tonnes. Despite near optimal weather conditions, area planted to wheat declined drastically due to the liberalisation of wheat production and the removal of Government support programmes to encourage wheat production in the Gezira, Rahad and New Halfa irrigation schemes. In 1999, Government directives for farmers to commit a proportion of their land under wheat cultivation were removed. This, together with the abolishing of the repayment arrangements for seeds and fertilizer, prompted many farmers to either drastically reduce wheat cultivation and switch to more lucrative cash crops, such as vegetables and oil seeds, or leave land fallow. As a result, area planted under wheat declined further from the reduced 355 000 feddans (149 000 ha) in the 1998/99 season to merely 243 000 feddans (102 000 ha) this year – representing a decrease of some 32 percent. However, a combination of favourable weather conditions during the growing season and relatively low incidence of pest attacks have resulted in a substantial increase in yields.
The Mission also revised down the final estimate of sorghum production for 1999/2000 to around 2.35 million tonnes compared to 3.11 million tonnes estimated by the FAO/WFP mission late last year, mainly due to lower yields and pest damage, especially sorghum midge, rats, grasshoppers and birds. At this level, the sorghum crop is some 45 percent below the previous year’s bumper harvest and about 24 percent below the average for the previous five years. Final estimates of the millet production remain unchanged from the preliminary estimates of the FAO/WFP mission at 499 000 tonnes. The aggregate production of cereals in 1999/2000 is, therefore, estimated at 3.14 million tonnes, including small quantities of maize and rice. This represents a drop over last year and the previous five years of some 39 percent and 24 percent respectively.
Reflecting lower cereal harvests in 1999/2000 and the drawing down of stocks due mainly to a surge in exports during 1999, cereal prices have risen sharply since November 1999.
With an estimated cereal production of about 3.14 million tonnes, commercial cereal imports forecast at 912 000 tonnes and food assistance of about 104 000 tonnes, the country's cereal utilisation requirement estimated at about 4.7 million tonnes in 1999/2000 would require heavy draw-down of stocks. It is estimated that cereal stocks will need to be drawn down by 538 000 tonnes, resulting in their virtual depletion by the end of the current marketing year.
The food supply situation remains highly precarious in southern Sudan, mainly due to insecurity, and in some pockets in the states of Kordofan, Darfur, and Red Sea and Kessela in the north where crop losses and population displacements have affected large number of people. The conflict between the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Eritrea has also resulted in tens of thousands of refugees crossing the border into Sudan adversely affecting the food supply situation in these bordering areas. The Government of Sudan has already appealed to the international community for relief and emergency assistance to the refugees.
Early prospects for the 2000/01 coarse grains, planting of which is about to start, are promising. Current high cereal prices in the country and growing export opportunities to neighbouring Eritrea and Ethiopia have prompted farmers for early preparation of land and likely increase in area sown which were also helped by early start of rains in some parts. The Government has also embarked on a strategy of early delivery of necessary agricultural inputs, including seeds, fertilisers, fuel and pesticides.
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