However, any objective quantitative forecast of the 2000 cereal, in particular of the wheat harvest, is difficult. Systematic and timely data on the cropped area, the irrigated areas and crop production is seriously lacking and when available, is conflicting. Indications are that the amount of land being planted to cereals (mainly wheat) has increased steadily until 1998 when, according to official statistics, it stabilized at around 400 000 hectares. In 1999/2000 the area sown to grain is also reported to be around 400 000 hectares. Between 1993 and 1998 the area of rainfed wheat expanded rapidly as upland pastures, virgin land and most other spare plots of land were bought into utilization. The increase in area was due to the chronic shortage of bread, and other basic foods following independence and the civil strife (1992-97) and the practice of paying salaries on large farms in wheat, in view of the lack of cash and high inflation. In 1995 and 1996 (the last data available) the irrrigated area sown to cereals was 150 000 and 155 000 hectares respectively. Cereal (mainly wheat) plantings in 2000 have remained at this level, with diversion of land to cotton about 140 000 hectares.

This irrigated wheat is officially reported to be good; however systematic disaggregated data on the average yield of wheat from irrigated and non-irrigated land is not available. An FAO Mission in 1996 found that official yields, particularly of wheat, have been badly understated : on reasonable areas of irrigated land the average yield was found to be of the order of 1.5-2.5 tonnes /hectare and could reach 3 tonnes a hectare in a good year such as 1997. By contrast, the yield of rainfed wheat was found to be significantly lower, 1 tonne/hectare or less.

Given the current drought, the chronic shortages of working capital and inputs, and official reports that the irrigated wheat harvest is in good condition, FAO tentatively estimates the irrigated output at 210 000 tonnes of wheat (i.e 1.5 tonnes/hectare from 140 000 hectares, the lower end of the range) and some 18 000 tonnes of rice from 10 000 hectares of irrigated land). On the estimated rainfed area the yield of winter crops, is officially estimated to be only 25 percent of average in some regions, i.e 0.25 tonnes per hectare on the remaining wheat area. On the basis of these calculations the 2000 wheat harvest could be in the range of 260 000-300 000 tonnes, and the total harvest, including spring sown wheat and maize, 330 000-380 000 tonnes. The worst case scenaraio, 330 000 tonnes, would be 150 000 tonnes or almost one third less than the official estimate of production in 1999 of 475 000 tonnes) and only 75 percent of the 1994-1999 average. Spring crop plantings have progressed well and the area sown has increased. At higher altitudes a small amount of spring wheat is sown.

Based on the official production estimates in recent years and reflected import data, cereal utilization has been in the range of 900 000-950 000 tonnes per annum, of which some 730 000 tonnes were estimated for direct human consumption, 70 000-110 000 used for feed and about 110 000 tonnes for other uses (mainly seed and losses). In the 2000/01 marketing year, domestic cereal utilization is estimated at 920 000 tonnes, close to that of 1999/2000. Against this requirement, domestic production, (including rice in milled equivalent and excluding pulses) is estimated at 319 000 tonnes, leaving, in the worst case scenario an import requirement of 600 000 tonnes. This compares to estimated imports of nearly 490 000 tonnes in the 1999/2000 marketing year, of which some 66 000 tonnes were food aid. Commercial imports have averaged roughly 300 000 tonnes between 1995/96 and 1999/2000 and reached an estimated 423 000 tonnes in 1999/2000. The worst case estimated import requirement - of 600 000 tonnes, of which nearly 500 000 is wheat - is well above the usual market requirement of the past five years. In view of the drought situation, and the low output and prices of cotton in 1999/2000 (one of the major exports earners), immediate consideration needs to be given to an adequate response to effects of the drought, both in the form of non-market disruptive food aid and related non-food items and in the form of inputs and technical assistance to ensure a better crop next year.

The overall food supply situation remains problematical, as poverty is endemic in the country. About 1 million people are poor and destitute and experience acute or chronic food insecurity. Coping mechanisms are exhausted and the crop loss will result in a further decline of the living standard of the vulnerable population, who do not have income to purchase wheat at the already rising prices at the local markets. Nutrition surveys confirm a high degree of malnutrition amongst the vulnerable and children under five. The expected low crop will increase the risk of severe malnutrition, which has been rising over the past few years with global chronic malnutrition rates of more than 40 percent.

Humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations and assistance to develop agriculture will continue to be necessary. A further 98 050 people may need food aid in addition to the 370 000 beneficiaries currently receiving food aid through WFP�s Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO). The additional beneficiaires are situated in Khatlon (65 000), Karategin (12 950) and Leninabad (20 000). The additional food needs for one year (until the next harvest) amount to 7 157 tonnes of wheat flour, 536 tonnes of vegetable oil and 360 tonnes of sugar.