FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/00 - THE UKRAINE (7 June)
The outlook for the 2000 grain harvest has deteriorated. The reorganisation of former state farms in the wake of a government decree of 3 December 1999, without proper resolution of the problem of debts to private input providers, has left between one quarter and one half the number of farms with little sound basis for negotiating credit for inputs. The Government has allocated funds for up to 50 percent interest compensation but due to the proven high risks, banks and many input providers are wary of lending to producers. In addition to the difficult financial situation on farm, persistent hot, dry weather is compromising the yield of both winter and spring grains in the south.
The area sown to winter crops, prior to the farm reorganisation reached 7.9 million hectares; crop conditions are better than expected earlier and latest indications are that only 0.750 million hectares required reseeding after winter. Spring crop sowing with the exception of maize is virtually complete but information on the area sown is conflicting. The estimate of the Office of Statistics (11.1 million hectares including 4.3 spring grains) is substantially lower than that of the Ministry of Agriculture (12.7 million hectares, including 4.78 million hectares to spring grains excluding maize).
Whatever the area sown, frosts, and dry conditions in April and most of May in southern Ukraine, have lowered yield potential and the outlook is for a harvest of cereals no more than that of 1999, estimated by FAO at 27 million tonnes. Following the second poor harvest in succession and large exports (5.8 million tonnes in 1998/99 and 3.0 million tonnes up to April 2000), FAO tentatively forecasts 1999/2000 cereal exports at 3.1 million tonnes, including 2.0 million tonnes of wheat, and cereal imports at only 0.3 million tonnes, mainly wheat and rice.
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