FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/00 - YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (5 June)
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (5 June)
The 1999/2000 agricultural year is proving very difficult. Agricultural production has been more resilient than other sectors of the economy but nevertheless, the effect of sanctions over the years, the damage caused during the war last year, rapid inflation and price controls on basic foodstuffs has severely undermined the sector’s potential and destabilised the livestock industry.
The outlook for 2000 food crops, and particularly those for which marketing is affected by government regulation, is not good. Low official prices for wheat, payment delays, poor returns for 1999 crops, shortages of fuel and fertilizer, working capital and delays in harvesting the 1999 crop have kept winter crop planting well below target. Latest reports indicate that, contrary to expectations, the area sown to winter wheat fell further to only 640 000 hectares from a below average 702 000 hectares in the preceding year. Growing conditions for the crop have been mixed. Flooding and waterlogging in parts of the Voyvodina were followed by hot and dry conditions in April/May which are compromising yields of maize and oilseeds. Fertilizer use has likely remained low in response to a sharp increase in prices on the black market and the fact that it is only released by the government against payment of wheat in kind after the harvest. Quality seed has also been very expensive. All indications point to another poor wheat harvest in 2000.
The State still officially controls prices for five staple products, - bread, milk, meat, sugar and vegetable oil. However, with rapid inflation, price controls are ineffective and apply only to goods sold in the state sector shops, which are frequently short of supplies, while much higher priced goods are available in the private sector. In an attempt to keep retail prices low, flour, and the fuel and energy used by bakeries, is subsidized.
In 1999, a record maize harvest of 6.1 million tonnes offset the poor wheat harvest of only 2 million tonnes, and aggregate cereal output is officially estimated at an about average 8.6 million tonnes. Early indications are that the 2000 grain harvest could be lower. The country has exported 150 000 tonnes of wheat as well as maize in 1999/2000. However, agri-food exports in the first three months of this year was one third lower than at the corresponding time of 1999 last year trade, although trade in fruit and vegetables, production of which is almost entirely in the private sector, remains strong.
The country is in a state of acute economic crisis in the wake of the conflict over Kosovo and several successive years of economic sanctions. In 1999 food prices doubled, while salaries fell. WFP is providing food assistance for nearly 1 million beneficiaries in Serbia (excluding Kosovo Province) and Montenegro, including refugees and economically and socially deprived people. Other organizations are providing assistance for a further 200 000 IDPs in Serbia.
In the Kosovo Province, prospects for the 2000 cereal crop remain generally satisfactory. Wheat harvesting is about to start and early indications point to a crop of about 200 000 to 250 000 tonnes. As earlier anticipated, the amount of food assistance being provided in the Kosovo Province has been scaled down in the second quarter of 2000, in line with increased employment opportunities as the economy gradually recovers, and thus improvements in household incomes, and also as winter expenditures decrease. The total estimated caseload of beneficiaries in the April-June period is estimated at 620 000 of which WFP is covering 330 000 and CRS/MCI 290 000.