FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 2000 ZIMBABWE 48

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ZIMBABWE

Area:
387 000 sq.km
Climate:
Centre and north-east tropical wet-dry; south and west semi-arid; rainy season: November-March
Population:
12.25 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 610 (1998)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Land-locked country; exporter and importer of grain
Logistics:
Exports and imports through Mozambique or South Africa
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, millet, sorghum
Marketing year:
April/March; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
66 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


Political violence in past months has disrupted economic and agricultural activities. Despite an improvement in growing conditions for this year's main maize crop, harvesting was interrupted by the unrest related to the issue of land reforms which has affected 1 500 commercial farms and the seizure of 804 by the government. Increased theft of grains is also reported. This has created a climate of fear amongst the commercial farmers, many of whom have abandoned their farms and left livestock unattended and fled to the relative safety of urban areas. Official forecasts indicate a maize harvest of 2.4 million tonnes, well above last year's level, but it is unlikely that the forecast will materialize.

Agricultural production is undertaken by two categories of farmers: large scale commercial farmers located mainly in the north and east and small scale communal farmers in the south and west. Large-scale commercial farmers, currently numbering around 4 000, contribute some 30-40 percent of maize production. Yields on commercial farms are on average four times higher than on communal farms, in part due to inherent differences in land quality, but mainly because of facilities for supplementary irrigation, greater use of improved technology and management practices, as well as better access to working capital. Furthermore, Zimbabwe has been over 60 percent self-sufficient in wheat, a crop produced entirely on commercial farms. However, the 2000 wheat plantings are preliminarily estimated to be one-third lower than last year and production is anticipated to be reduced.

Currently, the country is faced with a severe economic crisis, with severe fuel shortages, due to an acute shortage of foreign exchange. This is seriously disrupting industrial production due to erratic power supply and inadequate supply of raw materials, due to blocking of credit lines to the country's firms. Thus, should there be a large drop in food production necessitating substantial amounts of imports, Zimbabwe's currently low import capacity would seriously constrain its ability to cover the shortfall commercially.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000/01 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Previous five years average production 253 - 1 889 2 142
Previous five years average imports 124 24 226 374
2000/01 Domestic Availability 270 - 2 058 2 328
2000 Production (rice in paddy terms) 210 - 2 058 2 268
2000 Production (rice in milled terms) 210 - 2 058 2 268
Possible stock drawdown 60 - - 60
2000/01 Utilization 375 25 2 308 2 708
Food Use 365 25 1 767 2 157
of which: local purchase requirement - - - -
Non-food use 10 - 491 501
Exports or Re-exports - - - -
Possible stock build up - - 50 50
2000/01 Import Requirement 105 25 250 380
Anticipated commercial imports 105 25 250 380
Food aid needs - - - -
Current Aid Position        
Food aid pledges - - - -
of which: Delivered - - - -
Donor-financed purchases - - - -
of which: for local use - - - -
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 29 2 141 172
Indexes        
2000 production as % of average:       106
2000/01 import requirement as % of average:       102


FAO/GIEWS - August 2000

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