FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 2000 5

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

The harvesting of the 1999/2000 coarse grain crops is virtually complete in southern Africa. In several countries of eastern Africa, the main season crops are either being harvested or are in the ground, however, the planting season of the main cereal crops has started in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan. Coarse grain crops are maturing in parts of the coastal countries of western Africa and are at flowering or grain formation stages in parts of central Africa. In the Sahelian countries of western Africa main season cereal crops have just been planted.

Cereal Crop Calendar

1/ Except Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo which have two main seasons and Tanzania whose main season follows the southern Africa planting calendar. For Sudan, the planting period for the staple coarse grain crop is June-July and the harvesting period is October-December.

In eastern Africa, with erratic rainfall so far during the current season, the early outlook for the 2000 crops is generally unfavourable, suggesting that the prevailing critical food shortages will persist well into 2001. Current estimates suggest that already about 20 million people in the sub-region face severe food shortages. In Kenya, the current "long rains" season has largely failed, leading to a poor food outlook for 2000/01. The food supply situation is alarming in northern, eastern and north-western pastoral districts affected by successive droughts. Nearly 3.3 million people are in dire need and the Government and international agencies have recently appealed for massive international assistance. In Eritrea, the outlook for this year's agricultural season, which has just started, is bleak due to the displacement of almost all farmers from the country's "bread basket" regions of Gash Barka and Debub by the recent upsurge in the border conflict with Ethiopia. The fighting has created a humanitarian crisis by forcing an estimated 1.5 million people from their homes and farms, with many crossing into neighbouring Sudan. This is on top of the 300 000 people affected by drought. In Ethiopia, with the failure of the short rains ("Belg") season crop due to the presisting drought, the number of people in need of assistance has increased to more than 10 million people, including 400 000 displaced by the border war with Eritrea. Consequently, the overall food aid requirement in 2000 estimated earlier in the year at 836 000 tonnes has been revised upwards to 1.2 million tonnes. In Somalia, favourable prospects for the current main season ("Gu") crops in southern Somalia, for harvest from August, are reported. However, despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation, an estimated 750 000 people still face severe food shortages and are in need of international food assistance. In Sudan, despite a stable food supply situation overall, some 2.4 million people affected by drought and the long-running civil conflict continue to depend on food assistance. In Tanzania, continued food assistance is needed for nearly 800 000 food insecure people, mainly in the regions of Dodoma, Mara, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora, Tanga and southern Mwanza, which have suffered a third consecutive poor harvest. In Uganda, the food supply situation remains precarious in Kotido, Moroto, Gulu and Kitgum districts in the north and Bundibugyo district in the west, mainly due to civil unrest but also due a poor harvest in the north last season.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the countries of the sub-region in 2000 is estimated at 5.1 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 3.4 million tonnes and the food aid requirements at 1.7 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of mid-July amount to 1.4 million tonnes of which 0.8 million tonnes had been delivered.

A UN Inter-Agency appeal was launched on 6 June 2000 for US$378 million to assist some 13.4 million drought affected people in Ethiopia, Kenya, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti.

In southern Africa, harvesting of the 2000 cereal crops is delayed in some countries due to unseasonable rains in June. Dry weather earlier in the growing season followed by excessive rains, cyclones and floods resulted in sharply reduced production in some countries but, overall, the sub-region's cereal production, mainly maize, is forecast to increase from last year's level and above average. This mainly reflects favourable conditions in the major maize growing areas. However, the impact of weather conditions on this year's output varies among countries and regions within countries. In South Africa, the main producer of the sub-region, provisional estimates indicate a maize output of 9.64 million tonnes, one-third higher than last year and above average. This reflects higher plantings and yields despite serious flood damage in some provinces. Exportable surplus of maize in marketing year 2000/01 is estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tonnes. In Malawi, abundant rains from February to April led to the recovery of the maize crop, affected by early dry weather in the main growing areas. The output is provisionally estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, almost unchanged from the record level of last year. Export surpluses are anticipated for the second consecutive year. In Zimbabwe, despite improved growing conditions for the cereal crops, civil disturbances, coupled with severe shortages of fuel, have disrupted harvesting operations and production could be lower than expected. In Mozambique, severe flood damage in southern parts, and a slight reduction in yields in the main growing areas, have resulted in a decline in maize output from the good level of last year to 994 000 tonnes. While maize surpluses are estimated in northern areas, the food supply situation is extremely tight in southern provinces. In Zambia, despite localized floods, abundant precipitation from February allowed the recovery of the main maize crop, estimated at 918 000 tonnes, 7 percent higher than last year. In Angola, the coarse grain output decreased 6 percent from last year to 500 000 tonnes. This mainly reflects erratic rains during the growing season. Persistent insecurity continues to cause massive population displacements. The number of IDPs has increased to 2.6 million, of whom 1.9 million are estimated to be in urgent need of emergency food assistance. In Swaziland, excessive rains and floods during the season, as well as a decline of 10 percent in plantings resulted in a sharp fall in this year's production. The main maize crop is provisionally estimated at 72 000 tonnes, 37 percent lower than in 1999. By contrast, in Namibia, abundant rains during the season benefited the maize and millet crops. Latest forecasts point to a coarse grain output more than double last year's average level. In Lesotho, production of maize is forecast at 116 000 tonnes, 7 percent below last year's average crop. Dry weather at the beginning of the season, followed by excessive rains from February, adversely affected yields. In Botswana, the latest forecast indicates a sorghum crop lower than anticipated and coarse grain output is anticipated to be lower than last year's below-average level; crops were affected by severe floods in eastern and southern provinces.

The sub-region aggregate cereal import requirement in marketing year 2000/01 (May/April) is estimated at 4.68 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 4.13 million tonnes, leaving 0.55 million tonnes to be covered by food aid. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS until mid-July amounted to 0.2 million tonnes.

In western Africa, the rainy season in the coastal countries has generally been normal so far. However, agricultural activities in Sierra Leone have been disrupted by renewed civil disturbances since early May, during the critical planting period, pointing to a reduced rice crop this year. The 1999 aggregate cereal output for the eight coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo) is estimated at some 27.5 million tonnes compared to 26.9 million tonnes in 1998. Average to above-average harvests were gathered in all the coastal countries, except in Sierra Leone and Ghana.

In the Sahel, the growing season is now well established. Plantings have been undertaken satisfactorily as seed availibility was adequate following the 1999 good harvests. Growing conditions are generally favourable so far; except in central Mali and Burkina Faso where decreasing rains in late June/early July may cause water stress to recently planted crops. Following the release of final production estimates for 1999 in most CILSS member countries, the aggregate output of cereals (including rice in paddy) has been revised to 11.5 million tonnes. This is about 8 percent higher than in 1998 and 23 percent above the average for the last five years. Record crops were harvested in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Mali and Senegal, while output was above average in Chad, Niger and Mauritania and below average in Guinea Bissau due to the impact of civil disturbances in 1998.

In the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory through the 2000 marketing year, except in Liberia and Sierra Leone where production was affected by current or past civil strife. In the Sahel, the food supply situation is expected to be stable until the next harvest from October. Farmers' and national food security stocks have been replenished. Markets are well supplied and cereal prices are much lower than in previous years. However, several areas within countries may require some assistance, following floods at the end of the 1999 rainy season in Mauritania and Senegal. Localised deficits can be covered by transfers from surplus areas or through triangular transactions.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the western Africa sub-region in the 1999/2000 marketing year is estimated at 5.5 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 5.07 million tonnes and food aid requirement at 0.47 million tonnes, mainly wheat and rice.

In central Africa, average to above-average harvests were gathered in 1999 in most countries except the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo, affected by civil strife. Crops are currently growing under generally favourable conditions in Cameroon and Central African Republic. In the Republic of Congo, the security situation improved following the December 1999 cease-fire agreement. Intensified civil strife in Democratic Republic of Congo has disrupted agricultural and marketing activities, pointing to another reduced harvest in 2000.

For the 2000 marketing year, the cereal import requirement for the seven countries of the sub-region is estimated at about 800 000 tonnes, to be met almost entirely through commercial channels.

The table below summarizes sub-Saharan Africa's cereal import and food aid requirements by sub-region.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Import and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tonnes)