FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.4 - September 2000 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/01 forecast	Change 2000/01 over 1999/2000
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	589	613	598	589	587	-0.4
Coarse grains	920	905	911	882	896	1.6
Rice, milled	383	387	390	404	398	-1.5
(paddy)	(572)	(579)	(583)	(604)	(595)	-1.5
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 892	1 906	1 898	1 876	1 881	0.3
Developing countries	1 025	1 005	1 038	1 030	1 004	-2.6
Developed countries	867	901	860	845	878	3.9
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	101	100	108	107	-0.3
Coarse grains	91	89	93	101	101	0.4
Rice (milled)	19	28	25	22	23	2.6
All cereals	212	218	218	231	232	0.3
Developing countries	150	160	159	166	168	1.1
Developed countries	62	59	59	65	64	-1.9
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	5.6	6.2	11.0	10.0	9.5	-5.0
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	575	591	590	596	598	0.4
Coarse grains	894	893	896	892	897	0.5
Rice (milled)	381	383	391	402	405	0.8
All cereals	1 849	1 867	1 877	1 890	1 900	0.5
Developing countries	1 107	1 111	1 136	1 146	1 152	0.6
Developed countries	742	756	740	744	748	0.5
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Developing countries	173	172	173	174	174	0.1
Developed countries	130	130	130	130	131	0.6
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	114	137	143	138	127	-8.0
Coarse grains	127	141	152	143	139	-3.1
Rice (milled)	56	55	57	60	54	-10.9
All cereals	297	334	352	342	320	-6.5
Developing countries	175	165	176	179	147	-18.0
Developed countries	122	169	176	162	173	6.3
Stocks as % of world	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . )
cereal consumption	15.9	17.8	18.6	18.0	16.5
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	352	316	315	253	217 6/	-17.5 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	181	142	120	112	115 8/	4.5 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	135	112	95	91	76 8/	-15.5 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.8	11.7	9.3	13.7	16.3 8/	40.1 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	(. . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	379	363	387	384	384	-0.1
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	803	785	810	812	781	-3.8
Per caput production (kg.) 10/	225	216	219	217	206	-4.8
Cereal imports 2/	69.5	79.0	71.9	73.0	74.2	1.7
of which: Food aid	4.7	5.5	7.9	6.8	7.5	10.3
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . )
covered by food aid	6.7	6.9	11.1	9.3	10.1

SOURCE: FAO

Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June shipments.
4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
5/ July/June.
6/ Average of quotations for January-August 2000.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Average of quotations for July-August 2000.
9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1997), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.
10/ Includes rice on a milled basis.