The severe food supply difficulties due to drought have been exacerbated by the recent escalation of conflict, particularly in northern parts of the country. Displaced people continue to arrive in Herat city from the drought-affected areas of Ghor Province, at a rate of 30 to 50 families per day totalling about 1500 families in early September. Conflicts in drought-affected areas of northern Takhar have also triggered massive displacements.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply assessment Mission which visited the country from earlier in the year found that total cereal production in 2000, estimated at 1.82 million tonnes, is about 44 percent below 1999 and 53 percent compared to 1998. Cereal import requirements in the 2000/01 (July/June), estimated at a record high level of 2.3 million tonnes, are more than double the 1999 volume of 1.1 million tonnes. With estimated commercial cereal imports of about 1 million tonnes, some 31 percent higher than the estimate for last year, a huge deficit of about 1.3 million tonnes is forecast. WFP emergency food aid, in pipeline and pledged, amounts to 225 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of over 1.0 million tonnes.
Persistent dry conditions since June, hot temperatures and hot and dry winds have caused extensive crop damage. A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in August found that the outlook for crops had seriously deteriorated. Crops in the Ararat valley, which had access to irrigation water, have developed satisfactorily but elsewhere crops and pastures have been severely affected by drought, particularly in the northeast and in all upland areas. Early indications are that the aggregate 2000 cereal harvest will be about 216 000 tonnes, three-quarters of normal, while that of potatoes, a major staple in upland rural areas, could be reduced by even more.
Fodder crops and natural pastures for livestock have also been seriously affected and substantial destocking will be necessary. Income from the sale/barter of livestock products accounts for an important share of rural household budgets and is crucially important if rural households have to revert to the market to cover a part of their needs. Drought affected farmers are being hit both by reduced agricultural output for auto consumption and/or marketing and the declining prices for livestock products.
There is still food available in the market. The price of wheat in urban markets, largely supplied from imports, has not changed significantly but in rural markets prices of wheat, fodder crops and potatoes are rising and pronounced increases are expected towards the end of the year when rural households run out of supplies from this year's harvest. Meat prices, by contrast, are falling. Rural households, not in receipt of regular remittances from abroad, are likely to face food shortages. In urban areas also, poor households are likely to experience hardship. Despite financial stability and economic growth, a large proportion of the population remains effectively under or unemployed and poor.
Because of the drought, cereal import requirements, including food aid, in 2000/01 will increase sharply. This is due in part to the lower cereal production. In addition, although the harvest of potatoes will continue until later this year, early indications are that the harvest could be very poor indeed. If the country is to reserve seed potatoes from this year's harvest, it will be necessary to replace a proportion of human consumption of potatoes with imported wheat.
In 2000/01 the domestic cereal requirement is estimated at 731 000 tonnes, including 481 000 tonnes for human consumption. This represents 192 kg per caput, higher than usual in view of reduced availability of potatoes and most other domestically produced foodstuffs. Cereal imports in 2000/01 are estimated at 515 000 tonnes, including 458 000 tonnes of wheat. Commercial cereal imports amounted to an estimated 404 000 tonnes in 1999/2000 and are estimated to be 369 000 tonnes in the current year, reflecting growing debt and severe budget constraints. Food aid needs are estimated at 146 000 tonnes and include 109 000 tonnes of wheat for human consumption and 37 000 tonnes of barley to enable 60 000 cattle in the worst affected area to be kept alive during the winter and released into spring grazing in reasonable condition for milk production. Against the food aid requirement, 70 000 tonnes have been pledged to date leaving an uncovered requirement of 76 000 tonnes.
Income distribution is very uneven and living conditions precarious for many households. Purchasing power remains low and at times insufficient to cover the cost of the minimum consumption basket. In total, some 170 000 vulnerable people will be covered by WFP food assistance, including some 110 000 refugees and vulnerable persons being provided with relief food aid, while 60 000 will be reached through community based food-for-work activities, supporting economic and social development. The programme is planned for three years and will be reviewed annually. The Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO 6120.01) is expiring on 30 June 2001. An emergency operation is under consideration to assist victims of a drought which has plagued the region and affected mainly the rural population of Armenia.
The outlook for the 2000 foodcrops harvest has also been affected by the heatwave and drought this summer. Official indications are that spring crops, notably cotton, vegetables, fruit and potato, particularly in mountainous areas, have been affected. The extent to which the drought has affected the yield of winter wheat, harvested as of July, is uncertain. Below normal precipitation coupled with high evaporation also reduced the water levels in the Kura and Araz rivers used for irrigation. At the aggregate level, the output of crops is expected to be reduced by 15 - 25 percent. The drought has also affected animal pastures and fodder for the winter.
As the outlook for potato production is unfavourable, the cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is likely to rise to beyond the 600 000 tonnes envisaged earlier. If FAO's projection of 2000 grain production (1 million tonnes) materializes, imports of cereals in the 2000/01 marketing year are tentatively estimated at about 800 000 tonnes compared to 772 000 in 1999/2000. The bulk of this will be covered commercially, though vulnerable groups, including the internally displaced, still need targeted food assistance. WFP continues to support 485 000 beneficiaries through a 3-year Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation which started in July 1999. Total food commodities committed for the life of the project amount to 47 880 tonnes of food aid. The current programme supports IDPs with supplementary assistance, relief support to socially vulnerable groups, resettlement of refugees/returnees and recovery through food-for-work and food-for-training.
In recent days, 35 000 hectares of rice and other crops were damaged by floods in several districts in the north west. With flood waters rising some 300 000 people have been evacuated, many from Chuadanga district, which was the worst affected.
Earlier in the first dekad of September, some 60 000 people were made homeless and several were killed by floods on Sandwip Island, situated 100 km off the mainland. The floods were caused by unusually high tidal waves in the Bay of Bengal. Problems of drinking water and food supplies are reported.
The main crop currently in the ground is the aman/monsoon paddy crop, which is normally planted in June/July for harvest in October. Although previously the crop was the largest of the country's three rice crops, in recent years the irrigated boro crop (planted in January for harvest in April/May) has gained in importance and is now almost similar in size. Earlier harvesting of the smallest aus rice crop was completed in July/August, with an output of 1.75 million tonnes. Current forecasts indicate that rice production in 2000/01 will be around 22.5 million tonnes, assuming a favourable boro crop next year. Of this, around 45 percent each will come from the aman and boro crops and 10 percent from aus rice. A combination of an increase in area planted, favourable weather and adequate input supplies, resulted in a bumper 1999/2000 rice production of 22.6 million tonnes, some 3 million tonnes above the previous year and some 23 percent above the 1995-1999 five year average.
Wheat production in 2000, however, was lower than target, which was partly attributed to delays in harvesting of the 1999 aman rice crop and excess residual soil moisture during the planting season. The area planted therefore was restricted to around 0.73 million hectares against a target of 0.87 million hectares. Favourable climatic conditions during the growing period, however, contributed to relatively better yields, which resulted in an output of around 1.7 million tonnes, some 9 percent above the five year average between 1995 and 1999. In 1999 the country produced a record wheat crop of 1.9 million tonnes.
The overall food situation remains satisfactory with adequate government food grain reserves. At the end of August 2000 there was a total of 1.29 million tonnes of grain in stock including some 690 000 tonnes of rice and 600 000 tonnes of wheat in the Public Food Grain Distribution System.
Humanitarian and food supply concerns continue with the country still coping with the highest flood levels in 70 years. Although in parts the flood waters have begun receding, already over 135 people have been killed, with the possibility of more casualties. In addition to human casualties, some 5 000 livestock have also been killed. Seventeen of the country's 23 provinces were affected by floods and more than 270 000 hectares of rice damaged or destroyed. The economic damage to crops alone is officially estimated at around US $10 million. Serious food shortages and escalating food prices are reported in a number of areas, whilst there is also chronic shortage of drinking water. The government has declared a state of emergency in several provinces and requested international humanitarian assistance for 600 000 of the worst affected people. The country is normally prone to flooding during the rainy season between August and September, though this year flooding started in early July and has been more extensive than normal. In the last serious floods in 1996, 169 people were killed. The International Federation of the Red Cross has issued an appeal for US $1.6 million to assist flood victims in the country.
The main affects of the floods will be delays in ongoing land preparation, transplanting and planting of main wet season rice. Although the target for 2000/01 is 4.2 million tonnes, this now remains uncertain in view of the floods. In contrast to wide spread flood damage in the river delta, drought in parts such Kampong Spoe province destroyed rice nurseries further damaging overall prospects. Total 1999/2000 paddy production was a record estimated at a 4 million tonnes, some 500 000 tonnes or 14 percent above the previous year. Around 83 percent of paddy production is from the wet season crop, and the remainder from flood recession and dry season production. Rice also accounts for some 84 percent of annual food crop production and is planted on around 90 percent of cropped area, mainly in the Central Mekong Basin and Delta and the Tonle Sap Plain.
In the first week of September, Typhoon Maria killed 29 people and caused estimated damages of U S $100 million in Guangdong and Hunan provinces and damaged or destroyed an estimated 40 000 hectares of crops. These two provinces are important rice producers and together normally produce some 21 percent of national rice production. The weather situation in the second dekad of September, however, was generally favourable across most of the country, with warm dry weather aiding maturation and harvesting of summer crops and planting of early winter crops. Harvesting of early rice, first of the three rice crops grown, is complete with production estimated at 37.5 million tonnes of paddy; some 8 percent below last year and the lowest level since the 1980s. In addition, official reports indicate that the intermediate rice crop, affected by drought in parts, will also register a decline compared to last year, while late rice has been affected by typhoon and storm activity, particularly in Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. Overall paddy production in 2000/2001, therefore, is currently forecast at around 186 million tonnes, some 12 million tonnes below 1999/2000. The flood damage comes on top of serious drought earlier which affected summer grain production, particularly in important producing areas in the north. The estimate for 2000 wheat production has been revised down further to 101 million tonnes, compared to 103 million tonnes earlier and 111 million tonnes in June. At this level, production would be some 10 percent lower than average for the last five years and almost 13 million tonnes or 11 percent lower than 1999. In addition, due to adverse dry conditions and to some extent falling acreage, maize production is expected to fall to its lowest level in 6 years to around 103 million tonnes, some 15 percent below average and 25 million tonnes below last year. Lower production will likely result in higher domestic market prices, increase demand for imports and reduce exports. Official reports indicate that this year's drought has been the worst in 20 years, damaging around 31 million hectares of summer and autumn crops.
Total grain production, including roots and tubers, is now forecast at 402 million tonnes this year, 7.45 million tonnes lower than forecast earlier and around 51 million tonnes lower than last year. In addition to weather disturbances, the decline in grain output this year is partly attributed to the reduction in procurement prices announced by the Government earlier in order to reduce large inventories. However there are indications that the Government will review procurement prices.
Aggregate 2000 wheat and barley output is estimated at 101 000 tonnes, some 20 percent below last year's good crop but similar to the five year average. Wheat imports in 1999/2000 (May/April) are forecast at 95 000 tonnes. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, similar to last year.
The main agriculture activity currently is the harvesting of off-season maize and planting of off-season rice. Land preparation for main season production will commence in October, whilst planting will be undertaken in the months between November and January. Last year, despite serious disruption to agriculture, marketing and the economy, following civil disturbances, output of the main maize and rice crops was affected less than had been envisaged in the months following the crisis. Although maize planting was later, compared to the optimum planting date, the delay itself did not seriously affect yields, also as overall rainfall was favourable during the 1999/2000 crop season. FAO estimated maize and rice production for the current 2000/01 (April/March) marketing year at around 94 600 and 30 500 tonnes (milled) respectively. Allowing for stocks and pipe line food aid pledges the overall (net) deficit, in relation to utilization needs, was estimated 14 100 tonnes, part of which was expected to be covered by commercial/private imports and the rest by additional food aid pledges.
Food assistance continues to be provided by WFP, which so far this marketing year has distributed a total of 9 000 million tonnes of various commodities (rice, maize, pulses, vegetable oil, salt, canned fish, etc) to beneficiaries through the different programmes such as vulnerable group feeding, food-for-work, food-for-training and school feeding.
The Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Georgia in August, found that Georgia faces a severe food crisis. Agricultural production in 2000 has catastrophically dropped as a result of the serious drought, which has affected both rain-fed and irrigated areas. Six regions, namely Kakheti, Mtskheta Mtianeti, Kvemo Kartli, Shida Kartli, Samtskhe-Javakheti and Imereti, have been the most affected. Cereal crops have largely been lost in the eastern part of Georgia. Although production improved moving further west and north, yield reductions were still assessed at 50 percent or more in these areas, whilst the quality of the grains produced was also very poor. In the irrigated areas, irrigation was generally inadequate, reducing yields by up to one half. The drought has affected all crops, not just cereals. The yield of potatoes, an important staple in the upland areas, is also poor particularly in the non-irrigated areas. Colorado Beetle further damaged the potato crop in the south and southwest. Sunflower output has been hard hit, as have the fruit, vegetables and grape harvests. Pasture and fodder crop production is affected, and will necessitate a reduction in animal numbers particularly in the east.
The Mission provisionally estimates total cereal production in 2000 at 326 000 tonnes, including 83 000 (1999: 226 000) tonnes of wheat. Output of maize and barley is tentatively estimated at about 225 000 tonnes and 15 000 tonnes respectively, pending completion of the harvest. At the forecast level, aggregate cereal output in 2000 would be only 42 percent of the estimated 1999 total cereal production and 49 percent of the average of the last five years.
With a minimum national cereal consumption requirement (including food, feed seed, losses) estimated at 1.07 million tonnes, Georgia's cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is estimated at 748 000 tonnes (620 000 tonnes of wheat, 88 000 tonnes of maize, 35 000 tonnes of barley and 5 000 tonnes of rice). Commercial imports are difficult to estimate precisely in view of informal imports and the volume of transit trade, but are estimated at 437 000 tonnes, while pledged food aid amounts to 88 000 tonnes. This leaves an uncovered deficit of 223 000 tonnes (112 000 tonnes of wheat; 80 000 tonnes of maize; 30 000 tonnes of barley; 1 000 tonnes of rice) which will need to be covered by additional food aid.
The Mission also established that cereal seed production had all but been lost, there being an estimated 4 000 tonnes of a required 30 000 tonnes in the country. Provision of winter wheat seeds to farmers will be paramount if production is to recover and food aid needs to diminish next year.
Emergency food aid is required for an estimated 696 000 worst affected drought victims and WFP is appealing for almost 66 000 tonnes for a period of 8 months (November to June), until the next main harvest.
Following serious drought earlier in the year which affected a number of western and southern states, severe floods during the monsoon season have devastated many parts of the country killing several hundred people, displacing thousands and destroying crops. As a result of the disruption to agriculture, marketing and communications, the food supply situation in some states is extremely tight. The latest floods occurred in the country's most populous state, Utter Pradesh, where weeks of heavy rains caused floods displacing thousands of people. Although water levels in the major rivers and tributaries have begun receding, an estimated 40 000 people remain homeless. The floods are estimated to have killed 306 people and damaged or destroyed nearly 200 000 hectares of crops. In mid-September, there were also renewed floods in parts of West Bengal which had also been affected earlier in the monsoon season. Reports indicate that the worst affected districts were Birbhum, Burdwan, Murshidabad and Malda, whilst major rivers and tributaries are flowing well above danger levels. Several dams and barrages in the state are also above danger levels and are having to release large volumes of water. Around 600 000 people have been evacuated to safer locations, whilst latest reports indicate that some 500 people were killed. Elsewhere, at the end of August, in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh thousands of people had to be evacuated due to rising river levels following the heaviest rainfall in decades. An estimated 142 people were killed by the floods, whilst losses in property and crops were put at U S $168 million. Monsoon floods earlier in the season, also killed several hundred people and destroyed crops in the northern state of Himachal Pradesh and the north eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. The state of Assam was the worst affected, where some 3 000 villages were submerged, and an estimated 2.5 million people made homeless. Except for Himachal Pradesh, the remaining flood-affected states are all important rice producers, accounting for some 52 percent of total kharif or monsoon rice production. Due to flood damage and erratic rainfall in parts, overall rice prospects remain uncertain. Although the outlook in major rice surplus states of Punjab, Haryana and most parts of Uttar Pradesh remains favourable, rainfall in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa, where the rice crop is mostly rainfed, has been erratic. In addition, the floods in Andhra Pradesh have reduced prospects of a bumper monsoon crop there. As result, aggregate 2000/01 rice production may be affected and be lower than the 90 million tonnes forecast earlier. Milled rice production in 1999/00 was a record 88.25 million tonnes, of which 75.6 million tonnes (86 percent) was from the main monsoon kharif crop and 12.6 million tonnes from the rabi crop.
In late August the Government announced the minimum support price for paddy for the 2000/01 marketing year (October/September) at 5 100 rupees or $112 per tonne for common varieties and 5 400 rupees or $118.7 per tonne for Grade A varieties.
In view of large wheat stocks following record wheat production of 74.2 million tonnes this year, the Government has allowed exports of up to two million tonnes during 2000/01. Export prices, allowing for transport and handling, remain unattractive compared to prevailing international prices and there is likely to be little demand.
On 1 July, the Food Corporation of India had wheat stocks amounting to around 28 million tonnes, almost twice the required minimum buffer of 14.3 million tonnes.
Sunny dry weather in the first dekad of September, across the main rice producing island of Java, benefited development of second season rice, which is planted in July/August for harvest in October to December. To coincide with the north east monsoon, the main rice crop will be planted in November to January for harvest in April to June next year.
The estimate for paddy production for the 2000 calendar year has been revised up from around 49 million tonnes estimated in June to 51 million tonnes, compared to 49.1 million tonnes last year. Higher production is attributed to a long wet season and only minor incidences of pests and disease. At this level of production output will be around average for the five year period between 1995 and 1999. The area harvested remained around an average 11.5 million hectares. Due to higher domestic production, the estimate for imports in 2000 may be revised down somewhat. Since late 1998 the Government has allowed private imports of rice. The current import duty on rice is Rp.430/kg.
The overall food situation in the country continues to stabilize, following the economic crisis in 1997/1998, which was also compounded by a poor agricultural year due to El Ni�o. These factors together, eroded the livelihood of large sections of the population, increasing poverty levels and vulnerability to food insecurity. However, economic recovery in 1999 and this year, coupled with satisfactory agricultural prospects are likely to see continued recovery in key sectors such as poultry, for example, as demand for meat and hence feed is expected to increase. With continued economic recovery, poultry meat production is anticipated to reach 800 000 tonnes by the next marketing year, or around 90 percent of the pre-crisis level of 890 000 tonnes. The growth in the poultry sector, in turn is likely to induce recovery in the feed mill industry and demand for maize.
Despite a satisfactory situation overall, concerns remain for food security in parts of the country notably in West Timor, where the killing of UN humanitarian personnel in recent days has led to a tense security situation amongst refugees, particularly in areas where UN aid personnel have been withdrawn.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (26 September)
The disastrous consequences of this year's severe drought continue to be felt in various sectors with major dams and hydro-electric facilities running dry. It is estimated that rainfall this year was around 140mm, well below an average of 260 mm. The drought, the worst since 1964, has affected an estimated 37 million people or over 50 percent of the population. Living conditions amongst the affected population are worsening rapidly putting tremendous strain on water for livestock and crops. The estimate of 2000 wheat production has been revised down significantly from an earlier forecast of 9 million tonnes in June. It is now estimated that output this year will be around 8 million tonnes, some 700 000 tonnes lower than the already drought reduced crop last year and almost 2 million tonnes below the five year average. Last year also saw wheat production fall by over 3 million tonnes, or around 25 percent, compared to 1998. In addition, the lack of rainfall and irrigation water will also have a serious impact on prospects for crop recovery next year. Wheat planting is normally undertaken during September/October with the crop harvested the following April/May. Rainfed barley which is imperative for livestock feed is also planted from September onward for harvest in March.
In the livestock sector, the indications are that the situation will almost certainly worsen by early 2001 as the breeding herd will not recover, even if adequate rains are received. So far an estimated 800 000 animals have died of starvation and disease. The tremendous pressure on water and other resources in rural areas, is having a serious impact on vulnerable groups, particularly in rural areas, who have limited alternative sources of income and incurred heavy losses last year. Many herders have had to sell livestock and migrate to cities.
In 1999/2000 the country was one of the largest importers of wheat in the world, with imports reaching almost 7 million tonnes, similar to record imports in 1996/97, which was also affected by drought. The successive fall in wheat production means that imports are likely to remain high.
In late August a United Nations appeal was made for funds for thousands of mobile and stationary water tankers for the rural population and animals, one million tonnes of emergency barley feed for livestock and 28 tonnes of vitamin and mineral feed.
Two consecutive years of severe drought and inadequate availability of essential agricultural inputs have severely affected the Iraqi agriculture. A recent FAO/WFP Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission found that in the most affected centre/south areas, not only were the plantings reduced, but also some 75 percent of the cropped area under wheat and barley was heavily damaged and mostly used as grazing area for livestock. Cereal yields were reduced to all time low levels. In northern Governorates, insufficient and erratic rainfall continued during much of 1999/2000 crop season, with only one-third of the normal rainfall received in parts. As a result, total cereal production in 2000, estimated at some to 794 000 tonnes, is about 47 percent and 64 percent below the 1999 poor harvest and the previous five years average respectively.
Drought conditions also drastically reduced the water resources in rivers, dams, lakes and canals, some of which have virtually dried up. Shortage of imported feed, overgrazing, and inadequate veterinary services are the major constraints to the normal development of the livestock sector. Fish production has also decreased drastically. However, a positive and a notable progress has been made in the rehabilitation of the poultry sector since 1998, which has benefited from substantial Government interventions with funds generated from the oil-for-food deal. Production of chicken and eggs are expected to increase significantly this year compared to last year and 1998.
Cereal imports since 1997/98 under the oil-for-food deal have led to significant improvements in the food supply situation. However, per capita cereal food consumption in 2000/01 is estimated to decline from the 1997/98 level. Furthermore, problems of delays in the flow of food imports continue to be reported, leading to repeated cases of low levels of MOU commodity stocks. There is need to ensure urgent and timely delivery of imports under MOU contracts, including food items but also agricultural inputs, such as appropriate seeds for the next season, failing which a production recovery will not be achieved.
Due to a severe drought that affected several countries in the Near East, output of the recently harvested 2000 wheat crop, is estimated at 50 000 tonnes, more than double last year's record low crop of 20 000 tonnes, but nearly 60 percent below the previous five years average. Cereal imports in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.9 million tonnes.
In the second dekad of September, torrential rains following typhoon Saomai hit central parts of the country, flooding thousands of homes. An estimated 200 000 people had to be evacuated. Further typhoon activity and heavy rainfall was anticipated. Wide-spread rain also hampered rice maturation somewhat. The main harvest of rice will commence next month and extend into November. The Government has announced a 2.7 percent reduction in the support price of rice to 252 yen/kg, but no change in the land targeted for diversification. Since 1995, as part of the country rice area adjustment programme, area has declined by some 16 percent. As a consequence domestic (milled) rice production has declined from some 11 million tonnes in 1994 to an average of around 9 million tonnes in the last five years.
Prolonged drought has decimated
the 2000 wheat and barley crops. This is in the wake of a severe drought in 1999 that also seriously affected cereal and horticultural crops, and resulted in a decline of 88 percent in aggregate wheat and barley output to only 15 000 tonnes. The 2000 wheat crop is forecast at 20 000 tonnes, a slight recovery from last year, but only a third of the five year average. Similarly, the barley crop, estimated at 8 000 tonnes, is about 80 percent below average. The livestock sector was also severely affected, with sheep farmers the hardest hit.
The harvest is in full swing and returns confirm a lower harvest in 2000. The grain area for harvest is 12.3 million hectares. By late September, the average yield from the 11.2 million hectares harvested approached 1 tonne (bunker weight) per hectare compared to an average yield of 1.3 tonnes/ha last year. In northern Kazakhstan, dry conditions from mid June to end July adversely affected crop yields. Shortages and the high price of fuel are complicating the harvest and leading to increased losses. Locusts did not plague this year's crop, impeded by the relatively cold spring.
Given an average yield of about 0.9 tonne per hectare and an final area harvested of about 12 million hectares, FAO tentatively puts the 2000 grain harvest at 10.6 million tonnes, compared to the bumper 14.3 million tonnes last year. Wheat production is estimated to fall to 8.5 million tonnes from 11.2 in 1999 and coarse grain output is put at nearly 2 million tonnes (1999:2.8 million tonnes)
The country exported nearly 7 million tonnes of cereals in 1999/2000 including 6 million tonnes of wheat, mainly to other CIS countries. Exports in the current marketing year are expected to be less. Russian import demand is also expected to be less. Some 350 000 tonnes have already been contracted by Tajikistan
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (26 September)
In the second dekad of September, light to moderate rain over agricultural areas affected maize and early harvesting of rice somewhat. Earlier, on 31 August, continuous heavy rain over 27 hours and storms seriously affected north eastern parts of the country, particularly in north and south Hamgyong provinces, killing 42 people and causing extensive damage to infrastructure, communications and crops. The north east part of the country remains the most vulnerable to food supply difficulties as it is largely industrial and less agricultural than the country's bread basket in the south west. Latest indications suggest however that the bulk of the damage was to infrastructure and not crops.
Domestic food production prospects this year where also seriously affected by reduced rainfall and drought in the earlier part of the agricultural season. Although rainfall at the beginning of the year was higher, that in the subsequent months fell noticeably below average. This adversely affected soil moisture levels for the double crops of barley and wheat, which resulted in a reduction in yields. In addition, lower precipitation this year, coupled with below-normal rainfall in 1999, especially during the main rainy season June to August, also reduced water availability for replenishment of irrigation reservoirs, which are essential for crops, particularly at the early stages of growth before the onset of the main rainy season.
A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment mission is planned to visit the country in October to assess this year's crop harvest and food supply prospects for the 2000/01 marketing year from November to October.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (14 September)
Light moderate rain over agricultural areas affected maize and early harvesting of rice somewhat, whilst average temperatures were reported to be 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal. The main rice harvest will commence in October. The Government target for paddy production in 2000 has been set at 7 million tonnes, around average though some 3 percent lower than output last year. Prospects of economic recovery and growth, in the aftermath of the financial crisis in Asia, continue to improve signalling stronger demand for grains for food and feed. Wheat and maize are almost entirely imported, whilst the country on average produces around 5 million tonnes of rice (milled) per annum, during the main season which extends from around May to October. Last year, despite heavy flooding the rice crop was around 5.2 million tonnes, from an area of approximately 1.06 million hectares. The level of production was around 146 000 tonnes or almost 3 percent above output in 1998. In general, the number of productive farms and rice acreage is declining in the country as more land is made available to infrastructure and urban development. Any future expansion will come mainly from marginal and reclaimed land, including land subject to flooding.
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (12 September)
Satellite imagery indicates that the country has suffered less than neighbouring countries from the ongoing drought. However, indications are that in the two southern oblasts, Djalalabad and Osh, crop intensity is less than last year. The major wheat harvest, which was harvested in July may not have been affected, but the yield of spring crops: maize, vegetables, potatoes etc could be lower than last year, notably in these densely populated oblasts, where the agricultural surpluses are less than in the northern areas.
In view of the somewhat lesser growing conditions, FAO does not anticipate an increase in grain production this year and tentatively forecasts the harvest to remain at 1.63 million tonnes, somewhat below target (1.7 million tonnes). In response to the reduction in the area sown to wheat (while that of coarse grains increased), the output of wheat is tentatively estimated at 1.05 million tonnes (1999 1.1 million tonnes).
The overall food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory but a large part of the population is very poor. The country is self sufficient in wheat and has exported considerable quantities (possibly up to 170 000 tonnes p.a.) to neighbouring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
In September, typhoon Wukong (which also affected neighbouring countries extensively) caused serious flooding severely damaging 49 000 hectares of paddy, mainly in six central and southern provinces. In addition, several thousand families lost their homes and possessions, whilst many were evacuated. Although earlier estimates forecast paddy production this year at around 2.2 million tonnes, this remains uncertain in view of the damage. A tentative evaluation by WFP indicates that some food aid may be required, though currently the programme will continue to assist affected areas through food for work to rehabilitate fields and irrigation infrastructure, whilst project food aid will continue to be provided to well-targeted vulnerable groups in many of the flooded areas. In addition, in late September, The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies appealed for US$512 000 to help flood victims.
The output of the 2000 cereal crops is estimated at 67 000 tonnes, about the same as last year. Wheat imports in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 510 000 tonnes.
The country produces an average of around 2 million tonnes of paddy annually, of which 60 percent is from the main and 40 percent from the off season crop. Production this year is forecast at 2.1 million tonnes, of which around 60 percent would be from the main and 40 percent from the off season crop. Normally a third of domestic consumption requirements of rice are imported into the country, whilst wheat and maize are almost entirely imported. In view of economic recovery in the country, following slow-down after the Asia crisis, imports of both wheat and maize are anticipated to increase to meet increasing demand.
The Government recently announced various strategies to enable sustainable food production to reduce dependency on imports. These include improving efficiency and productivity, introducing food production zones, strengthening marketing systems and food processing industries, developing infrastructure and human resources. The priority areas will be on rice, fruit, vegetables, fisheries and poultry farming.
Wheat imports are projected to increase somewhat to around 1.3 million tonnes in 2 000 as a result of higher demand due to economic growth and favourable export projections for processed food such as noodles and biscuits.
Drought during the critical summer months, during which the country's main staple wheat is produced, may adversely impact grain and fodder production. Wheat is normally planted in May/June for harvest in October. This in turn is likely to exacerbate serious problems that livestock herders are facing following severe winter conditions earlier in the year, that resulted in the death of several hundred thousand livestock and a sharp deterioration in the livelihood and food security of large numbers of nomadic families. Due to lack of fodder and feed many animals are already in a poor state of health and will be more susceptible to outbreaks of animal diseases. UN reports indicate that the drought has left 50 per cent of the country dry, 20 per cent suffering from severe water shortage and more than 450 000 people susceptible to food shortages in the short term. In addition many of the districts affected were also affected by the harsh winter conditions last year. The situation may become worse as the National Agency of Meteorology forecasts continued unfavourable weather conditions with a lower than average precipitation.
The impact of natural disasters on livestock is of immense importance. The sector plays an extremely important part in the economy providing the main source of household income and a major source of foreign exchange. The heavy loss of livestock and the consequent reduction in meat supplies have resulted in a large increase (up to 40 percent) in livestock prices. This is turn has had a knock-on effect on inflation and the cost of living further exacerbating the food security of the poor and vulnerable groups. In addition to meat, there is serious shortage of milk, especially in rural areas, further restricting an important source of protein and nutrients in the diet. It has also been very difficult for nomadic families to find alternative sources of income, as most are poorly educated and trained for alternative employment. Nonetheless many have migrated to towns and urban centres compounding existing problems of unemployment and vulnerability to food shortages.
Current food shortages follow several years in which nutritional standards in the country have been falling due to significant changes in economic circumstance of large sectors of the population as the economy has been reoriented from one which was centrally planned to one which is market driven. This in particular has left many groups who were formally dependent on state employment and welfare exposed to economic uncertainties due to limited alternatives. Various reports in the mid-1990s indicated that those most affected by poverty and food insecurity included the unemployed, the elderly, female headed households, children, pensioners and small herders.
Nationally, to counter the fodder and feed needs the Ministry of Food and Agriculture took measures in July to increase hay and fodder production in unaffected areas for distribution amongst the affected rural population, and to provide provincial authorities with loans to cover the purchase of hay and fodder, the repair of existing wells and the installation of hand-operated wells. Arrangements were also made for the relocation of families and their herds from four drought affected provinces and for winter stocks and insulation. In addition, since March this year the Mongolian Red Cross has distributed a six-month supply of wheat flour and rice to 35 000 people in six of the worst affected provinces.
Harvesting of the main (monsoon) rice crop will commence in late September and continue into October/November. Main season rice normally accounts for around 85 percent of aggregate production the remaining 15 percent coming from the second, or dry season crop, which is planted in October/November for harvest the following April/May. Paddy production in 1999/2000, was officially reported at a record 19.8 million tonnes, whilst the target for 2000/01 is around 21 million tonnes.
Heavy monsoon rains, floods and landslides, killed a number of people and displaced several thousand in the worst affected areas in central parts of the country. Crops, mainly rice, infrastructure and communication systems were also damaged, with the economic cost of losses currently put at around US$6 million. There were also concerns regarding the food security situation in remote parts of the country, particularly Rukum District, where supplies were declining and access remains difficult for distribution. The current forecast indicates that paddy production this year will be above average and around 4 million tonnes.
The monsoon rains are expected to begin withdrawing from now, though earlier additional heavy rains in parts caused unfavourably wet conditions, particularly for cotton. Current reports indicate that due to a reduction in area and fall in yields that the rice harvest, due to commence in October, will be around 4.7 million tonnes, some 400 000 tonnes lower than production last year, though around 5 percent above average. In the last five year's average rice production has been in the order of 4.5 million tonnes. Of the total composition of rice, some 52 percent will be Basmati, 40 percent IRRI and 8 percent other varieties. Yields this year were additionally affected by lack of adequate irrigation water in parts, particularly in the Sindh, which is necessary at the beginning of the crop season, following severe drought earlier in the year.
Despite this year's serious drought, especially in Baluchistan and the Sindh, wheat production was a bumper 22 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes above target and 4 million tonnes above 1999. Increased production was largely attributed to higher than target output in Punjab province, the largest producers, where a combination of higher support prices and increased use of fertilizer and other inputs increased area and yields. Average wheat production in the five years between 1995 and 1999 was around 17.5 million tonnes compared to food requirements of around 18.5 million tonnes.
In view of increase wheat production this year, the government is reported to be considering a reduction in wheat export prices to encourage exports to neighbouring Afghanistan.
In the first dekad of September, heavy monsoon showers resulted in coastal flooding along the western and southern coast of the main island Luzon. Elsewhere, dry weather prevailed reducing moisture levels for development of main season rice, harvesting of which will commence in October. In late August, Ministry of Agriculture, predicted that dry spells and drought this quarter, may adversely affect development and output of main season rice and maize, particularly in rice in main producing regions in central Luzon and western Visayas, and maize in the Cagayan Valley region and Mindanao island. The department of soil and water is also expecting that the country may be affected by El Ni�o related drought next year. The Government is increasing resources to rehabilitate irrigation systems to mitigate the effects of possible drought. The official estimate for paddy production in the 2000 calendar year is put at 12.3 million tonnes. Of this, some 6.8 million tonnes is expected from the July to December crop.
Production of wheat in 2000 is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, about the same as last year, but nearly 10 percent below the five years average. Barley import in 2000/01 (July/June) are currently forecast at 4.7 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the second, irrigated, Yala crop planted in April is near completion, whilst land preparation of the main Maha crop will is under way in parts. The dry season crop accounts for around 33 percent of aggregate rice production in the country the bulk coming from the Maha crop planted in October/November to coincide with the main (north-west monsoon) rainy season. Paddy production has averaged around 2.5 million tonnes in the last five years from 1995 to 1999. In addition to rice, the country's main staple, some 850 000-900 000 tonnes of wheat are imported annually to meet demand, for bread and other wheat based products.
The output of the recently harvested 2000 wheat crop, estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, is about 33 percent above last year's well below-average crop and about average. The barley crop has also recovered to average levels.
In 1999, the worst drought for decades reduced barley production to about 380 000 tonnes, around 72 percent below the average of the previous five years, while wheat production, at 2.74 million tonnes, was about 28 percent below average. The drought had also led to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected household incomes.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in July found that a severe drought had reduced the 2000 cereal harvest to 236 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent compared to 1999. Output of all other crops, including potatoes, vegetables and cotton have also been affected. The Mission observed that both the winter and spring rainfed wheat crop, normally harvested during June-July, had almost totally failed in most places as a result of drought. Drought has also affected barley production and is severely constraining the prospects for other secondary crops (rice, maize). The irrigated wheat has also been affected, as water levels in rivers and canals have been reduced. The problem was compounded by the poor condition of the irrigation systems due to lack of maintenance. Lack of quality seeds has been another constraint. The impact of drought this year has been particularly severe, as it has hit when agriculture was already in decline because of intensifying problems relating to seed availability and decaying irrigation facilities.
Because of the drought, the cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 794 000 tonnes, including 787 000 tonnes of wheat. After taking into account a projected commercial import of 403 000 tonnes and the pledged food aid of 74 000 tonnes, the uncovered food aid requirements amount to 317 000 tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude for this impoverished country, if not addressed by the international community, could have disastrous implications for the population. In addition, the country urgently needs assistance with seed for planting starting in October.
Given that an estimated 85 percent of the population is poor, the steep drop in cereal production this year spells very bleak prospects for a very large proportion of the population. Many are already in dire conditions and the situation will worsen for increasing numbers in coming months as they exhaust whatever cereal output they have gathered or will gather as well as other means of coping that they may possess. An estimated 3 million people fall in this category, with about 2 million facing a desperate plight. Thus, with access to food through own production steeply reduced or destroyed and with virtually no means (inadequate employment opportunities and other sources of income) of accessing food through markets, these people cannot meet their basic minimum nutritional requirements during 2000/01, unless assistance is provided by the international community.
Even if rainfall and snowfall improve next year, the next wheat crop will not be available until June-July 2001. However, if rains fail again, emergency assistance to Tajikistan for the purpose of life saving alone would involve much larger operations. The evolving critical food supply and cereal production conditions and access of the needy to food need to be monitored carefully with a view to making adjustments to the ongoing assistance programmes and/or designing appropriate new ones.
WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people threatened by famine over the next nine months. Without assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a desperate situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.
Flood waters in north and north-eastern parts, began receding in the last few days as rains eased, but left a number of people dead, thousands displaced and extensive damage to property in their aftermath. Official estimates indicate that some 836 of around 2 000 sub districts in the country were affected, whilst the economic damage was put at about US $30 million. Around 645 000 hectares of crops were damaged or destroyed in over 24 provinces. Flood damage to rice in lower areas may, however, be offset by the beneficial effects of additional rain on higher ground.
In view of recent events, overall rice prospects in 2000/2001 remain uncertain. Latest official projections before the floods forecast the main rice crop at around 19.04 million tonnes. In addition, the second rice crop, planted in January to March for harvest in May/June, normally produces around 4.3 million tonnes. The country is the largest rice exporter in the world and has a target to export some 6 million tonnes in 2000.
Output of the 2000 wheat crop is estimated at 19 million tonnes about 5 percent above last year's drought reduced crop, but about average. Maize production is also forecast to increase by nearly 8 percent to 2.2 million tonnes compared to the average. Wheat imports in the current 2000/01 (July/June) marketing year are expected to be around 1.3 million tonnes, similar to last year. Maize imports are projected at 950 000 tonnes, some 200 000 tonnes higher than in the previous year.
The 2000 winter grain harvest reached 1.7 million tonnes, above target (1.645 million tonnes) and some 280 000 tonnes more than in 1999. The increase in mainly in response to the advances in land reform, under which most farmers are holding their land under leasehold. In an attempt to increase cereal, notably wheat, production, the area sown to winter crops was reportedly increased by almost 100 000 hectares, to 680 000 hectares, bringing some virgin land into production. In addition, substantial resources are reported to have been allocated to farmers to expand rice production, which is targetted to reach 200 000 tonnes per annum in the coming three years. Indications are that 70 000 hectares have been sown to rice and nearly US$10m million allocated to the purchase of quality seed, in an attempt to raise yield. Larger areas sown are being supported by the import of agricultural machinery. However, a shortage of irrigation water, because of the drought, which has affected Central Asia, could result in disappointing rice yields. The 2000 cotton harvest is reported to be 1.3 million tonnes, similar to last year's level.
Indications are that the 2000 cereal harvest is less than last year. Reduced precipitation over the winter and dry conditions in the north have resulted in less availability of irrigation water and losses of rainfed crops. Official reports indicate that on the large farms, some 3.1 million tonnes of wheat and barley have been harvested, less than the (ambitious) target of 4.3 million tonnes. In addition, small holders also have to plant wheat and were expected to produce 600 000 tonnes. The output of this sector has not yet been reported but is tentatively estimated by FAO at 500 000 tonnes. This would bring aggregate wheat and barley output to 3.6 million tonnes, compared to 3.7 million tonnes last year, despite an increase of 50 000 hectares in the irrigated area sown to wheat. Output of spring grains (maize and rice) is also likely to be affected so that aggregate cereal production may not be more than 4.1 million tonnes, compared to 4.3 million tonnes in 1999. The availability of yield enhancing inputs and of irrigation water - Uzbekistan shares the waters of rivers which flow into the Aral Sea with neighbouring countries - remain a major constraint while the lack of land and market reforms also constrain the country's efforts to increase cereal yields. The northern areas of Karakalpakstan have been particularly affected by the drought. Indications are that the bulk of the mainly rainfed crops and rice have been damaged. Much of the country is arid or semi-arid and the dry conditions have adversely affected animal pasture. With regard to cotton, the major cash crop, the outlook is also for a smaller harvest than last year.
The cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is anticipated to increase beyond the 0.6 million tonnes imported in 1999/2000.
The worst flooding in 40 years in the Mekong Delta has resulted in 43 deaths, large scale displacement of people, whilst many homes have been destroyed and some areas are facing serious food shortages. In addition some 100 000 hectares of rice have been damaged or destroyed, whilst the economic cost so far is put at US$26 million. To date, flood water levels in the Mekong River system are all above Alarm Level III, which signifies highly dangerous flood conditions, similar to levels reached during exceptionally disastrous floods in 1961, 1966, 1978 and 1996. The UNDP flood warning centre forecasts that in the next three to five days, upstream flood water levels on the Tien and Hau Rivers will likely reach peak flood levels of around 5 metres.
The worst affected areas are Long An, Dong Thap and An Giang which border Cambodia. The estimated death toll so far in these areas is 25, whilst up to 400 000 people have had to be evacuated.
Earlier in the first dekad of September, tropical storms also resulted in crop damage in central parts, whilst heavy rain along coastal areas of the Red River Delta, delayed harvesting of "10th" month rice on of the . In northern parts of the country 10th month rice is normally planted in June/July for harvest from the middle of September, whilst in the south, the growing period is longer, with harvesting commencing from late October onwards. Notwithstanding the full extent of any flood damage, current forecasts point to a 10th month paddy crop of around 8.3 million tonnes, slightly down on last year. Paddy production in 1999/2000 was 31.7 million tonnes, of which almost half came from the main winter/spring crop, planted from January to March, for harvest in April to July depending on location.
To supplement Government relief efforts, the International Federation of the Red Cross, has appealed for US $1.5 million to assist 125 000 worst affected people in the Mekong Delta.
Due to a slow down in rice trade in the world market, rice export revenues have been lower this year than anticipated. The Government recently revised down its rice export target for 2000 to 3.8 to 3.9 million tonnes compared to over 4 million tonnes earlier. In the first eight months of this year, 2.4 million tonnes of rice were exported a drop of 37 percent compared to the same period last year.
Sorghum production in 2000 is forecast at a below-average 380 000 tonnes. In contrast, the wheat crop is expected to recover to about 156 000 tonnes, about 4 percent above average. Small scale breeding of desert locust could extend into areas of recent rainfall in the eastern desert. Hoppers are likely to appear from early October and may form small groups or bands.
Imports of cereals in 2000 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2.6 million tonnes.
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