Will global forest cover in 2050 be stabilized or will it continue to decrease? Will demand for wood increase or remain static? Will the earth experience global warming or global cooling? Will new technology make it possible to count every tree? These are some of the questions raised in this issue of Unasylva on the future of forests and forestry.
Unasylva does not often publish articles that are not supported by hard facts. This issue is an exception. We encouraged the authors to dream a little, and did not insist on substantiation in the usual way. Some authors have visualized freely what the future will hold; others dream of how the future should be, pointing to current issues that will require consideration in order to achieve the desired outcomes in 2050. Yet others look backwards as a means of observing how we can go about the process of looking forwards. To paraphrase George Santayana, a profession that does not learn from its past is condemned to repeat it.
Many common themes appear throughout the issue. One is the fundamental role of information and communications, an area of extremely rapid change; many impacts of these changes can be predicted even if the technologies themselves are difficult to foresee. Another frequent prediction is that plantations are likely to have a far greater role in wood production, while natural forests will be assigned increasingly for environmental and recreational services. Many authors predict a decreased role of government in forestry and an increased role of the private sector. Authors disagree on other subjects - for instance, the direction of demand for wood as material or fuel, or changes in forest cover.
Whether or not the predicted outcomes will be realized depends to a great extent on factors external to the forest sector - political, economic and social - which are in themselves highly unpredictable. This is the central point made by C.T.S. Nair in the first article, which sets the stage by analysing changes in forestry, using as a springboard the example of the changes that have occurred in the forest sector in India over the past 30 years. Nair observes that forces outside the sector alter the development of forestry far more than do internal interventions intended to create change.
Some of the most visible changes observed by Nair in India, and reflected everywhere in the world, are those related to increased access to information. R. Päivinen, R. Mills, M. Hailu and J. Saarikko describe emerging information and communication technologies and explore some of the questions that the "information revolution" is raising in regard to reliability, transparency, privacy and accessibility of information.
Looking at supply and demand for wood and wood products, R. Sedjo predicts that by 2050 most industrial wood will come from a small area of plantation forests, while natural forests will remain as sources of environmental and other non-wood services.
At the centre of the issue is a thought-provoking region-by-region look at the future, as seen through the eyes of L.I. Umeh and C. Omoluabi (Africa), M.N. Salleh (Asia and the Pacific), C. Prins (Europe), I. Tomaselli (Latin America and the Caribbean), H.O. Abdel Nour (Near East) and M. Dombeck and A. Moad (North America).
Biotechnology is a controversial area because of public doubts regarding possible effects on food safety and the environment. A. Yanchuk describes emerging biotechnologies used in forestry and some associated issues. He emphasizes that, in future decision-making regarding the use of these tools, the biological risks and economic realities need to be evaluated objectively.
C. Sales then looks at recent innovations and future prospects in wood processing technologies, stressing that continued innovation will be needed to keep wood competitive with other materials.
Interspersed among the main articles are briefer observations representing the views and speculations of some prominent figures and organizations in the field of forestry and the environment. Readers are sure to find the speculations of A. Leslie, F. di Castri, W. Libby, J. Sayer, and G. Henne and C. Thies stimulating, whether or not they share the same opinions.
The final article in the issue is a collective vision of the future as foreseen by a group of FAO staff members. The article represents the outcome of an ongoing Delphi group communication exercise, in which voluntary participants have pooled their opinions on forest cover, conservation, plantations, wood energy, supply and demand, water, technology, information, international organizations and governance. Echoing many of the predictions set forward by the other authors, it seems a fitting conclusion to Unasylva's look at the future of forests and forestry to 2050.
Author M.N. Salleh has quoted a Russian proverb that says that when we predict the future, the devil laughs. The authors in this issue dare to predict the future of forestry in 2050. Let us see who has the last laugh, the devil or the foresters of the future.
