FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - ARMENIA* (6 November)
Persistent hot and dry conditions this summer have resulted in a poor harvest, estimated at only 219 000 tonnes of grain, some 27 percent less than last year and below average. Crops in the Ararat valley, which had access to irrigation water, were satisfactory but elsewhere crops and pastures have been affected by drought, particularly in the northeast and in all upland areas. Output of potatoes, a major staple in upland rural areas could be reduced by more than half. Output of fodder crops and natural pastures for livestock grazing have been seriously affected and substantial destocking will be necessary. Income from the sale/barter of livestock products accounts for an important share of rural household budgets and is crucially important if rural households have to revert to the market to cover a part of their needs.
Rural households, not in receipt of regular remittances from abroad, are likely to face food shortages. In urban areas also, poor households are likely to experience hardship. Despite financial stability and economic growth, a large proportion of the population remains effectively under- or unemployed and poor.
Because of the drought, both the cereal import requirement and the food aid requirement in 2000/01 will increase sharply. This is due to both lower cereal and potato production. In 2000/01 the domestic cereal requirement is estimated at 731 000 tonnes, including 481 000 tonnes for human consumption. This represents 192 kg per caput, higher than usual in view of the reduced availability of other domestically produced food. Cereal imports are estimated at 515 000 tonnes, including 458 000 tonnes of wheat. Commercial imports are estimated at 370 000 tonnes in the current year, reflecting growing debt and severe budget constraints. Food aid needs are estimated at 145 000 tonnes, including 108 000 tonnes of wheat for human consumption and 37 000 tonnes of barley to enable 60 000 cattle in the worst affected area to be kept alive during the winter and released into spring grazing in reasonable condition for milk production. Against the food aid requirement, 70 000 tonnes have been pledged to date leaving an uncovered requirement of 75 000 tonnes.
Income distribution is very uneven and living conditions precarious for many households. Purchasing power remains low and at times insufficient to cover the cost of the minimum consumption basket. Under the ongoing Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) - 6120.01 covering the period 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2001, WFP provides assistance to a total of 170 000 vulnerable people. Out of that some 110 000 refugees and vulnerable persons are provided with relief food aid, while 60 000 are planned to be reached through community based food-for-work activities.
Under PRRO, WFP has expanded its FFW programme. While planned FFW participants account for approximately one-third of 170 000 target beneficiaries, their food allocation makes up two-thirds of the overall amount of WFP food aid for Armenia. FFW has substantially contributed to meeting the participants� immediate food needs, while at the same time improving their living conditions and longer-term food security.
WFP plans to provide targeted emergency food assistance to severely drought-affected regions in the northern parts of the country. The plan is to supply an estimated 297 000 subsistence farmers and other vulnerable households with 22 480 tonnes of iron-fortified wheat, vegetable oil and pulses from 1 November 2000 until 1 July 2001.
The combined outstanding tonnage of the planned EMOP and the ongoing PRRO amounts to more than 28 000 tonnes up to mid- 2001 (22 480 tonnes of commodities under the EMOP and 8 000 under the PRRO).
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