FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - CHINA (6 November)
At the end of October across northern parts of the country unseasonable rain enhanced soil moisture supplies for winter wheat but delayed harvesting of summer crops. Overall due to a reduction in area planted and serious drought this year, it is estimated that summer grain output dropped some 9 percent and the autumn grain output may drop by over 10 percent. As a result of the fall back in production the price of wheat and maize may increase further.
Overall paddy production in 2000/01 is currently forecast at around 189 million tonnes, some 10 million tonnes below 1999/2000. The current estimate is higher than the 186 million tonnes estimated earlier. Serious drought this year seriously affected summer grain production, particularly in important producing areas in the north. The estimate for 2000 wheat production remains at 101 million tonnes, compared to 103 million tonnes earlier. At this level production would be some 10 percent lower than average output during the last five years and almost 13 million tonnes or 11 percent lower than 1999. In addition, due to adverse dry conditions and to some extent falling acreage, maize production is expected to fall to its lowest level in 6 years to around 103 million tonnes, some 15 percent below average and 25 million tonnes below last year.
Overall grain output, including roots and tubers, is expected to be around 490 million tonnes this year, compared to 508 million tonnes last year.
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