FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (6 November)

KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (6 November)

After two relatively stable agricultural years in 1998 and 1999, which saw moderate recovery in domestic food production following earlier disasters in 1995, 1996 and 1997, food production in 2000 has again slumped. This has been due to a combination of drought, at critical stages in the crop cycle, particularly planting, and the cumulative effect of underlying problems in agriculture which continue to constrain production heavily. Most important of these constraints has been the lack of electricity and fuel, which has greatly hindered irrigation and water delivery systems, resulting in lack of water in reservoirs and in the field at important times during the season. As a result of these factors there has been a sizeable reduction in rice and maize productivity and production.

This year's drought also affected neighbouring China and a number of other countries in central and south Asia and the Middle East. The knock-on effects, however, are perhaps more ominous in DPR Korea as the country can essentially produce food during only one season in the year (June- Oct.), has chronic input problems in the agricultural sector and is already in the midst of serious and persistent food shortages. Consequently, with no real possibility of enhancing food supplies significantly through domestic production till the next harvest in September/October 2001 and limited resources to import food commercially, the country appears to have little alternative other than to rely heavily on food assistance during the next 12 months, as it has done for the last five years.

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited the country in mid October, assessed that average rainfall during the 2000 season was well below average and only reached some 40 percent of norm during the critical months of June and July. In August there was some recovery in precipitation though the levels still remained almost 20 percent below average. The lack of rainfall and irrigation water at critical junctures in the season, resulted most seriously in delays in planting main season rice and maize; a sizeable reduction in the area under rice from 580 000 to 535 000 hectares, due to crop substitution and, hence, a notable fall in yields and output.

Based on the information provided and its assessment, the mission estimates 2000 paddy production at 1.69 million tonnes, around 31 percent or 734 000 tonnes lower than the FAO/WFP estimate of production in 1999. Maize production is estimated to have fallen to around 1 million tonnes, some 235 000 tonnes lower than the mission estimate of production last year. As a result of crop substitution of 45 000 hectares from rice to other crops, 65 000 tonnes of other cereals (sorghum and millet) were also produced this year, up from around 20 000 tonnes in 1999. In addition to this year's main cereal harvest, food supply prospects in 2000/01 will also depend considerably on the output of next year's potato and double crop barley and wheat crops. Although only a tentative forecast at this stage, based on target areas, production of these crops is forecast at 1.87 million tonnes of potato (470 000 tonnes cereal equivalent) and 246 000 tonnes of wheat and barley.

Overall domestic grain availability, in cereal equivalent, for the next marketing year, therefore, is forecast at 2.92 million tonnes. Against this, grain demand for food and other utilisation needs for 2000/01 is estimated at 4.79 million tonnes, leaving an import requirement of around 1.87 million tonnes. Commercial imports are anticipated to cover 200 000 tonnes. A further 700 000 tonnes of the import requirement is covered by planned food aid through WFP, whilst 500 000 more is expected as bilateral concessional imports. Taking these into account, the uncovered import requirement, therefore, is estimated at 465 000 tonnes, with which the country still needs assistance to meet minimum food needs.

The overall import requirement is the largest since 1997, though in contrast this year the country does have a substantial amount of food aid pledged already in the pipeline. In addition, the donor base, which had remained rather narrow hitherto, has broadened with an expected 500 000 tonnes from Japan, whilst the Republic of Korea will provide 500 000 tonnes in confessional imports and 100 000 in food assistance. Without these substantial contributions, there is little doubt that the overall food supply situation over the next year, would have been extremely serious.

The mission also found that although the importance of the Public Distribution System in ensuring food supplies through out the year has declined considerably in the last few years, that of markets and supplies from other channels has increased. This in turn has led to growing disparities between various population groups, especially in economic and physical access to food, which has become more competitive, mainly to the disadvantage of the urban population. Based on available information, the indications are that the urban population have between 20 and 25 percent less cereal available per caput compared to individuals in rural areas. In addition, household food access is also becoming increasingly dependent on the level of goods it has that can be bartered, on petty trade and work on co-operative farms which is now remunerated with food allocations following a system of work points.

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