FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - INDIA (6 November)
Although the overall monsoon rains were reported to be normal this year, the lack of monsoon rainfall in western and central parts will further affect food production, especially in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, central Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The situation is more critical as the drought has occurred in the same parts of the country for the second year in succession. This has also affected water tables and water availability, which will also affect Rabi (winter) season planting. Last year, rainfall was some 16 percent below normal, whilst this year it is reported to have been 25 percent normal in affected parts. In Rajasthan, the drought has damaged over 50 percent of crop area. As crops fail, more and more people are migrating out to towns or having to resort to borrowing money.
The country has had to endure a succession of natural disasters this year including earlier drought and severe flooding in a number of states, which left many dead and thousands homeless. Recent reports indicate that summer (kharif) grain production will be around 102.7 million tonnes, some 1.2 million tonnes lower than expected due mainly due to heavy floods in West Bengal and Bihar and severe drought in Gujarat. Kharif rice (milled) production is expected to fall to around 74 million tonnes compared to 76.3 million tonnes last year. Production of kharif coarse cereals was will also be lower than last year.
Following bumper harvests the overall grain situation remains satisfactory, with Government grain stocks on October 1 at 40 million tonnes (26.8 million tonnes of wheat and 13.2 million of rice). Around 22 million tonnes are the desired stock level. In view of large wheat stocks following record wheat production of 74.2 million tonnes this year, the Government has allowed exports of up to two million tonnes during 2000/01. Export prices, allowing for transport and handling, remain unattractive compared to prevailing international prices.
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