FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (6 November)

In the last dekad of October light rain over the north west and locally heavy rain over the Caspian coast was received, which may have benefited wheat planting which should now be underway.

Successive droughts in 1999 and this year have seriously affected various sectors with major dams and hydro-electric facilities running dry. It is estimated that rainfall this year was around 140mm, well below an average of 260 mm. The drought was the worst since 1964 and affected an estimated 37 million people or over 50 percent of the population. Living conditions amongst the affected population are worsening rapidly putting tremendous strain on water, livestock and crops. The estimate of 2000 wheat production has been revised down to around 8 million tonnes, some 700 000 tonnes lower than the already drought reduced crop last year and almost 2 million tonnes below the five year average. Last year also saw wheat production fall by over 3 million tonnes, or around 27 percent, compared to 1998. In addition, the lack of rainfall and irrigation water will also have a serious impact on prospects for crop recovery next year. Wheat planting is normally undertaken during September/October with the crop harvested the following April/May. Rainfed barley, which is essential for livestock, is also planted from September onward for harvest in March.

In the livestock sector, serious concerns persist as the situation is expected to worsen early next year, as the breeding herd will not recover, even if adequate rains are received. An estimated 800 000 animals died of starvation and disease. The tremendous pressure on water and other resources in rural areas is having a serious impact on vulnerable groups, who have limited alternative sources of income and incurred heavy losses last year. Many herders have had to sell livestock and migrate to cities.

In 1999/2000 the country was one of the largest importers of wheat in the world, with imports reaching almost 7 million tonnes, similar to record imports in 1996/97, which was also a drought year. The fall in wheat production this year means that imports are likely to remain high.

In late August a United Nations appeal was made for funds for thousands of mobile and stationary water tankers for the rural population and animals, one million tonnes of emergency barley feed for livestock and 28 tonnes of vitamin and mineral feed. As serious drought has also affected neighbouring Afghanistan, there is still risk of increased numbers of refugees into the country.

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