FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - MONGOLIA* (6 November)
The combination of natural disasters and economic problems due to transition continue to have a serious affect on food supply prospects in the country. There are concerns that following the worst winter in 30 years last year, this year's winter could also be severe. This year’s winter has already begun with strong winds and snowstorms forecast for November. Snowfall in Uvs, Zavkhan, Bayankhongor, Overkhangai and Dundgobi is anticipated to be high, whilst colder temperatures are being forecast for the end of winter and beginning of spring (March) which coincide with the start of the lambing season.
Lack of rain and drought during the critical summer months, during which the country's main staple wheat is produced, may adversely impact grain and fodder production. It is estimated that up to 60 percent of the pasture areas could not regenerate as a result. Wheat is normally planted in May/June for harvest in October. This in turn is likely to exacerbate serious problems that livestock herders are facing following severe winter conditions earlier in the year, that resulted in the death of several hundred thousand livestock and a sharp deterioration in the livelihood and food security of large numbers of nomadic families. Due to lack of fodder and feed many animals are already in a poor state of health and will be more susceptible to outbreaks of animal diseases. UN reports indicate that the drought has left 50 per cent of the country dry, 20 per cent suffering from severe water shortage and more than 450 000 people susceptible to food shortages. In addition, many of the districts affected were also affected by the harsh winter conditions last year. The situation may become worse as the National Agency of Meteorology, forecasts continued unfavourable weather conditions with a lower than average precipitation.
The impact of natural disasters on livestock is of immense importance. The sector plays an extremely important part in the economy providing the main source of household income and contributing a major source of foreign exchange. The heavy loss of livestock and the consequent reduction in meat supplies, have also meant that there has been a large increase (up to 40 percent) in livestock prices. This is turn has had a knock-on effect on inflation and the cost of living, further exacerbating the food security of the poor and vulnerable groups. In addition to the meat shortage, there is also a serious shortage of milk, especially in rural areas, further restricting an important source of protein and nutrients in the diet. It has also been very difficult for nomadic families to find alternative sources of income, as most are poorly educated and trained for alternative employment. Nonetheless, many have migrated to towns and urban centres, compounding existing problems of unemployment and vulnerability to food shortages.
Current food shortages follow several years in which nutritional standards in he country have been falling due to significant changes in economic circumstance of large sectors of the population as the economy has been reoriented from one which was centrally planned to one which is market driven. This in particular has left many groups who were formally dependent on state employment and welfare exposed to economic uncertainties due to limited alternative earning potential. Various reports in the mid-1990s indicated that those most affected by poverty and food insecurity included the unemployed, the elderly, female headed households, children, pensioners and small herders. Recent studies by Save the Children Fund and ADRA report high levels of chronic malnutrition in a number of nomadic areas, with many families living in extreme poverty with almost no resources.
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