FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - TAJIKISTAN* (6 November)

A severe drought has reduced the 2000 cereal harvest to 236 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent compared to 1999. Output of all other crops, including potatoes, vegetables and cotton have also been affected. Both the winter and spring rainfed wheat crop, harvested during June-July, has almost totally failed in most places as a result of drought. The irrigated wheat and other crops have also been affected, often severely as water levels in rivers and canals have been low. The problem was compounded by the poor condition of the irrigation systems due to lack of maintenance and the use of poor quality seed. The impact of drought this year has been particularly severe, as it has hit when agriculture has already been in decline because of persistent economic problems.

The cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 794 000 tonnes. After taking into account a projected commercial import of 403 000 tonnes and the pledged food aid of 96 000 tonnes, the uncovered food aid requirements remains at 295 000 tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude for this impoverished country, if not addressed by the international community, could have disastrous implications for the population. In addition, the country urgently needs assistance with the provision of seed for next year's production.

The drought has virtually destroyed an extremely limited coping capacity of the majority of the population, after many years of economic hardship. Given that an estimated 85 percent of the population is poor, the steep drop in cereal production this year spells very bleak prospects for food security. Many households are already in dire conditions and the situation will worsen for increasing numbers in winter and spring as they exhaust whatever food stocks they have, as well as other means of coping. An estimated 3 million people fall in this category, with about 2 million facing a desperate situation. Thus, with access to subsistence food production steeply reduced or destroyed and with virtually no means (inadequate employment opportunities and other sources of income) of accessing food through markets, these people cannot meet their basic minimum nutritional requirements during 2000/01, unless assistance is provided by the international community. The evolving critical food supply, production and access situations need to be monitored carefully with a view to making adjustments to the ongoing assistance programmes and/or designing appropriate new ones.

WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people threatened by famine over the next nine months. Without assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a desperate situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.

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