FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - UNITED STATES (10 November)

The November USDA crop report put the 2000 aggregate wheat (winter and spring) output at 60.5 million tonnes, 3.5 percent down from 1999 and about 5 percent below the average of the past five years. As of 6 November, planting of the winter wheat crop for harvest in 2001 was reported to be 85 percent complete, about 7-8 percent behind the previous year’s pace and the five-year average. The delay is mostly a result of adverse dry soil conditions in the central and southern regions, which account for the bulk of the county’s hard winter wheat production. More moisture is needed soon for germination. If plants are not strongly established before the onset of dormancy then the crop could be more susceptible to winter kill.

The outlook for the coarse grain crops, still being harvested in some parts, has deteriorated somewhat since the last report in September due largely to drought-related losses in some central and southern regions. The USDA's November forecast put aggregate coarse grain production at about 278 million tonnes, well down from earlier expectations but still about 5 percent above last year's output. Of the total, maize is expected to account for about 255 million tonnes, compared to 240 million tonnes in 1999. By 6 November it was reported that, 92 percent of the maize crop had been harvested, about the same as last year but ahead of the five-year average.

Paddy harvesting is still proceeding in California but is almost over in the southern states. Since the last report, the forecast of output in 2000 has been adjusted downward to 8.7 million tonnes, 7 percent less than the revised 1999 output. Latest information indicates that the area under rice has declined by 12 percent from 1.4 million hectares in 1999.

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