FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (6 November)

The 2000 grain harvest is significantly better than last year. FAO's estimate of output is 71 million tonnes, some 11 million tonnes more than estimated output in 1999, and about average. FAO's estimate is about 10 percent higher than the official forecast of 65-66 million tonnes, due to underreporting of output as most services in the agricultural sector are paid for in kind. Output of wheat is estimated by FAO at 40 million tonnes (some 10 percent above the official forecast) and the proportion of quality wheat is higher than last year. Output of coarse grains is estimated by FAO at 30 million tonnes compared to 25 million tonnes last year.

Planting of winter cereals (mainly wheat and rye) for harvest next year is virtually complete. Winter crops have been planted on 14.3 million hectares compared to the target of 14.6 million hectares.

Indications are that the 2000 harvest is adequate to cover domestic food and feed needs and allow some small replenishment of stocks. Provided the harvest forecast materializes, cereal imports in 2000/01 could be only half of the nearly 8 million tonnes imported in 1999/2000.

Food insecurity is primarily a problem of access rather than availability as income distribution is very uneven. Fifty percent of the population live below the poverty line of US$4.30/person/day. Specific causes of poverty include arrears in the payment of pensions, salaries and wages.

The 1999 conflict in Chechnya caused a massive displacement of the population, with 160 000 displaced outside to Ingushetia. In addition, an estimated 170 000 persons remain displaced inside Chechnya. WFP and partner NGOs are providing basic and complementary food assistance to practically all internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ingushetia. Mass hunger has been avoided, but IDPs remain heavily dependent on humanitarian aid. On the other hand, deliveries of food in Chechnya have been minimal due to problems of security and resources. A WFP mission in September 2000 found that the population in Grozny was not meeting its minimal food requirements, unable to build reserves for the winter and surviving through various coping mechanisms.

In Chechnya, 2000 agricultural production was greatly compromised by the security situation as well as the shortages of machinery, fuel and inputs. The outlook for winter grain planting for harvest next year is also reported to be bleak due to lack of financial resources and fuel. Latest reports indicate that only 40 000 hectares have been prepared for autumn sowing.

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