FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/00 - UZBEKISTAN (6 November)
An FAO/WFP mission which visited the country in October found that lower harvests of both wheat and cotton are to be expected as a result of a shortage of irrigation water following a mild winter and poor management of water resources. The drought has had catastrophic impacts on agriculture in the down river regions of the Amu Darya, the Autonomous Region of Karakalpakstan (KK) and Khorizem, but particularly the former.
In KK, the 2000 wheat harvest (which was planted in September/October 1999 and escaped the water shortage as of last spring), was good, (95 000 tonnes) but spring crop production has been reduced by between 35-90 percent depending on type of crop. In particular, potato production failed, rice, maize and other spring grain production is down by about 80-90 percent, while most other crops (cotton, fruit, fodder) is down by a half to a third. Crops on both the public farms and on the household plots, vital for survival, have been affected.
In Khorizem, the shortage of irrigation water also caused crop losses but to a lesser degree than in KK. Indications are that the 2000 wheat harvest is about average, but that output of rice is likely to be halved due to reductions in the areas sown and in yields while output of cotton is likely to contract by about 25 percent.
At the country level, winter cereals suffered less from the water shortages along the Amu Darya River in the summer than, for example cotton, but rainfed cereals were affected. Aggregate wheat production in 2000 is officially reported to be 3.4 million tonnes, with 3.1 million tonnes from the public sector and 300 000 tonnes from the household plots. Coupled with lower rice and spring coarse grain output, the 2000 grain harvest is likely to remain below 4 million tonnes, at least 10 percent less than last year. Preliminary indications are that output of cotton, a major export crop with which imports of wheat and machinery are financed, is likely to fall to around 3 million tonnes, compared to 3.6 million tonnes last year. Higher world prices for this commodity will help to offset the smaller quantity.
Imports of foodstuffs have declined in recent years in part due to a sharp increase in cereal production (notably wheat), and in part, because imports have been kept low to maximize funds available for the creation of import substituting industries. Nevertheless, the import requirement for wheat in 2000 is expected to increase to 800 000 tonnes and larger volumes than normal will have to be transferred to drought affected populations. Aggregate output of rice is expected to fall sharply. The bulk of cereal imports will be mobilized commercially but the government has requested (and received) 38 200 tonnes of durum wheat for pasta production. Budget constraints may reduce the capacity of the government to make adequate provision for the affected populations. Social security payments are made regularly but, due to financial constraints, are inadequate to cover needs.
Affected populations in KK need assistance. The shortage of irrigation water has affected food security by a) reducing physical availability of food, b) reducing income and purchasing power c) reducing already limited employment opportunities and d) increasing the proportion of food needs that will have to be met through market purchases. Household food stocks are very low. Household income is low and will be even lower in the coming year. In rural areas, there are few alternative sources of employment other than agriculture. There is a large shortfall in cereals in addition to the shortfall in other crops and in milk and egg production, compounded by reduced purchasing power. This means that demand for cheaper products, notably cereals (wheat, white sorghum and rice) will increase. It is doubtful that commercial imports (from other regions) can fill the gap, given the fall in earnings and purchasing power.
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