FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (13 February)

The early outlook for the 2001 winter cereals is good. The area sown to winter crops for harvest in the spring/summer of this year increased by 0.5 million hectares to 14.66 million hectares, mainly due to larger plantings in the North Caucasus. Growing conditions have been good overall. Satellite imagery shows better crop development in most areas, with the exception of Volgograd and Saratov oblasts. Mostly mild conditions this winter have benefited crops. Although, spells of extreme cold have caused human suffering, in general overall crops have had adequate protection.

FAO�s estimate of the 2000 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest is 71 million tonnes, about average and some 11 million tonnes higher than FAO�s estimate for production in 1999. FAO�s estimates in both years are about 10 percent higher than the official estimates, (2000: 65.4; 1999: 54.7 million tonnes) in view of systematic underestimation Output of wheat is now estimated by FAO at 38 million tonnes (some 10 percent above the official forecast) and the proportion of quality wheat is higher than last year. Output of coarse grains is estimated by FAO at 31 million tonnes compared to 25 million tonnes last year.

Indications are that the 2000 harvest is adequate to cover domestic food and feed needs and allow some small replenishment of stocks. In the 2000/01 marketing year cereal imports are forecast to fall to half of last year�s level (8.4 million tonnes) and to be partially offset by exports amounting to around 2 million tonnes.

Food insecurity is primarily a problem of access rather than availability as income distribution is very uneven. Some 50 percent of the population lives below the poverty line of US$4.30/person/day. Specific causes of poverty include arrears in the payment of pensions, salaries and wages.

In Chechnya, the outlook for winter grain planting for harvest next year is also reported to be bleak due to lack of financial resources and fuel. The 2000 agricultural production was greatly compromised by the security situation as well as the shortages of machinery, fuel and inputs.

The conflict in Chechnya continues to cause severe hardship for the local and displaced population, particularly now in the harsh winter months. An estimated 170 000 persons remain displaced inside Chechnya. Relief operations are seriously hindered by problems of security and shortage of resources. WFP and the NGOs are providing basic and complementary food assistance to practically all internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ingushetia, who number an additional 160 000, of whom some 30 000 are still living in tent camps.

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