FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - CAMBODIA (5 February)
In September 2000 the country was affected by one of the worst floods in recent history. This resulted in several hundred deaths and large scale destruction of crops, principally rice, infrastructure, property and lines of communication. An estimated 3 million people were affected, half a million displaced from homes and almost four hundred died. The September floods exacerbated existing problems following earlier floods last July.
Following the floods, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment mission was fielded to the country between 6 and 15 December, to assess the overall food supply situation and the need for possible food aid intervention for the 2001 marketing year (January/December). The mission found that the cumulative effects of the floods this year reduced overall wet season rice production on some 400 000 hectares, though recovery was possible on around 60 000 hectares of the area lost. Notwithstanding the loss due to floods, rainfall this year was generally above average, as a result of which the overall season was favourable and yields were above 1999, which was a bumper year. Although harvesting is still underway, the mission estimates that the likely area harvested in the 2000 wet season will be around 1.64 million hectares in total, some 5 percent below average for the past four years and the lowest since 1996/97, which was also affected by serious floods. Based on average yields of around 1.85 tonnes/hectare, wet season paddy production is estimated at some 3.03 million tonnes. In addition some 20 percent of aggregate annual rice production comes from the recession and dry season crops. Overall prospects for the dry season are generally favourable, given the abundance of residual surface and soil moisture and silt deposits. Though tentative at this stage, as the crop will not be harvested till March/April, dry season production is forecast at 735 000 tonnes, similar to 2000. Overall 2000/01 paddy production, therefore, is estimated at 3.76 million tonnes or 2.33 million tonnes in rice equivalent. In addition to current year production, the mission assessed that there were reasonably large in-country stocks of rice due to a generally sluggish domestic and cross- border market. This is reflected in prices which remain lower than last year. Taking into account these stocks, overall rice availability for the 2001 marketing year is estimated at 2.433 million tonnes. Against this total utilisation, food, seed, feed, other uses and stock draw-down, to cover the shortfall in wet season production, is estimated at 2.478 million tonnes leaving an uncovered deficit of around 45 000 tonnes. This deficit, however, will be covered entirely by pipeline food assistance, leaving an overall balance in rice supply and demand for 2001 with no import requirement.
Despite a relatively satisfactory rice supply/demand situation from a national perspective, this year's floods made a large number of people, who are normally on the borderline of subsistence and food insecurity, more vulnerable to food shortages. In general, there are three broad categories of "food insecure" people in the country. The largest group currently are the chronically food insecure, comprising approximately 2 million people. The second group are the "vulnerable groups" (handicapped, disease victims, orphans, etc.), which accounts for a further 500-600 000 people. The third group are the "transitory food insecure", due to factors such as fires, floods, and droughts, and would normally account for some 50 000 people. This year, however, due to the exceptional flooding, the number classified as transient food insecure is estimated at 3 million people. Of these, vulnerability analysis indicates that some 500 000 people would be classified as the most food insecure. Given the magnitude of the problem, this group could become chronically food insecure, if they have to resort to extreme coping strategies such as sale of land, incurring high interest debt, etc, to meet the household food deficit resulting from flood damage. However, if targeted food assistance is provided, almost all this group can be expected to recover by the next harvest. To cover the food needs of the half a million people who are most at risk, the mission advocates additional food assistance for four months. Part of the requirement (one and half months) will be met through a current Emergency Operation (EMOP 6296.00), whilst an additional 16 000 tonnes will be required to meet the remainder of food needs.
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