FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - SOUTH AFRICA (7 February)

SOUTH AFRICA (7 February)

Prospects for the 2001 maize crop have worsened. Well below average rains and high temperatures in January and early February have resulted in yield reductions particularly in the most affected western growing areas. Preliminary estimates indicate that up to 30 percent of the maize crop may have been damaged in the North West and Northern Cape provinces, that account for one third of maize production and 40 percent of the white maize. Rains in the coming weeks will be crucial for the recovery of part of the crop, which is entering the critical pollination phase, and to avoid further crop damage. Reflecting the deterioration of the harvest prospects, maize futures prices increased to over 900 rand per tonne by the first week of February from 700 rand per tonne in mid-December.

Latest official estimates of maize plantings indicate an area of 2.65 million hectares, higher than earlier anticipated, but still 17 percent below the level of last year. The decline reflects low domestic prices at planting time. The lower plantings, coupled with reduced yields could result in a sharp decrease in the 2001 maize production. More rains are urgently needed.

Production estimates of the 2000 wheat crop have been revised upward to 2.1 million tonnes, one-third above the poor harvest of the previous year and above average.

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