FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - SUDAN* (14 February)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited southern Sudan from 4 to 27 October 2000 and northern Sudan from 19 November to 6 December 2000, found that serious food shortages were emerging in several parts of the country due to late rains and prolonged dry spells, whilst food stocks had dwindled. The Mission forecast 2000/01 total cereal production in Sudan at about 3.6 million tonnes, comprising 2.7 million tonnes of sorghum, 496 000 tonnes of millet and 334 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in mid- 2001) and 95 000 tonnes of other cereals. At this level, cereal production is about 14 percent above last year�s below average crop but about 18 percent below the previous five years� average.
As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (November/October) is estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, about 16 percent above last year�s actual imports. Commercial imports in 1999/2000 are estimated at nearly 1 million tonnes, some 13 percent higher than the previous year. Emergency food aid, in pipeline and under mobilisation, stood at 34 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of about 140 000 tonnes.
Lower harvests coupled with virtual depletion of stocks have led to a sharp rise in cereal prices. Sorghum retail prices, for instance, leapt from an average of SP 15 000 per 90kg bag in January to April 2000 to an average of SP 35 000 in May and June. In November and December 2000 sorghum prices averaged SP 40 000 compared to SP 20 000 for the same period in 1999. Such an increase will reduce access to food for the poorer segments of the population.
The erratic rainfall also had a devastating effect on range vegetation, as well as on the availability of feed from grain and crop residues, especially in rainfed areas. The drastic fall in feed is expected to lead to widespread under- nutrition in livestock. Market supply of livestock has increased substantially, depressing prices and thus household incomes. The livestock/grain terms of trade for pastoralists have deteriorated sharply. Sheep/sorghum terms of trade (the quantity of sorghum bought with the local sale of a sheep) declined by about 400 percent in December 2000 compared to December 1999.
The population most affected by the current poor season is estimated at 900 000, mainly in Darfur, Kordofan, North Bahr el Ghazal, Bahr el Jebel, East Equatoria, Jonglei, Juba and Butana province in Gezira State. About 600 000 of these people will be in dire need of food assistance within four to five months time. In addition, some 2.4 million people affected by the ongoing civil strife in the south will need continued assistance. With few resources left and coping mechanisms stretched to the limit, farmers and other vulnerable groups have already started to migrate in search of work and food. Consumption of seed grains will reduce their productive capacity and ability to sustain themselves in the coming agricultural season. A timely and targeted intervention is essential to prevent further human suffering.
An revised Emergency Operation was jointly approved in January 2001 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 2.4 million people affected by war, drought and floods, worth an additional US$50.2 million for a period of 4 months.
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