FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - TAJIKISTAN* (12 February)
Cold weather and snowfall are needed to help to replenish irrigation water supplies for the coming spring/summer but the weather in January has been unusually mild. In addition, the outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest remains clouded by shortages of seed after last year’s drought-reduced crop, the poor state of the irrigation/water management system and inadequate drainage which is causing salination. A severe drought has reduced the 2000 cereal harvest to 236 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent compared to 1999. Output of all other crops, including potatoes, vegetables and cotton have also been affected.
The severe drought last year has rendered almost half of the 6.2 million people in the country vulnerable to food shortages and donor response to the appeals for food aid have been slow. The cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 791 000 tonnes. After taking into account a projected commercial import of some 400 0000 tonnes and pledged food aid of 104 000 tonnes, the uncovered food aid requirements remains at 285 000 tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude for this impoverished country, if not addressed by the international community, could have disastrous implications for the population. Many households are already in dire conditions and the situation will worsen for increasing numbers in the lean season (late winter - spring) when they exhaust whatever food stocks they have, as well as other means of coping. An estimated 3 million people fall in this category, with about 2 million facing a desperate situation. The evolving critical food supply, production and access situations need to be monitored carefully with a view to making adjustments to the ongoing assistance programmes and/or designing appropriate new ones.
WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people threatened by famine over the next nine months. Without assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a desperate situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.
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