FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - UZBEKISTAN (12 February)

At this early stage of the season, crop development is less than at the corresponding time last year. However, this could be due to colder weather and/or later plantings. Overall the early outlook for winter grains is satisfactory. Early reports indicate that the area sown to winter cereals has increased slightly, despite late and reduced planting in the northern areas affected by severe water shortage in the summer and autumn of 2000. The final outcome will depend crucially on good snowfall in the glacier mountains in the neighbouring countries feeding the two major rivers on which the country depends for irrigation water supplies.

The 2000 grain harvest is officially estimated at 3.916 million tonnes, below target (5.8 million tonnes) and some 10 percent below the previous year. Output was reduced as a result of a below normal winter precipitation, a shortage of irrigation water following a mild winter and poor management of water resources, with catastrophic impacts on agriculture in the down river regions of the AmuDarya, the Autonomous Region of Karakalpakstan and Khorizem, but particularly the former. Output of cotton, a major export crop with which imports of wheat and machinery are financed, has fallen to 3 million tonnes compared to 3.6 million tonnes last year. The rice harvest (irrigated) is also sharply down to 155 000 tonnes from 421 000 tonnes in 1999.

Imports of foodstuffs have declined in recent years in part due to a sharp increase in cereal production (notably wheat), and in part, because imports have been kept low to maximize funds available for the creation of import substituting industries. Nevertheless, the import requirement for wheat in 2000/01 is estimated at over 800 000 tonnes. The bulk of cereal imports will be mobilized commercially but the government has requested (and received) 38 200 tonnes of durum wheat for pasta production.

Larger volumes of cereals than normal will have to be transferred to drought affected populations. Budget constraints may reduce the capacity of the government to make adequate provision for the affected populations but the central government has not requested any additional emergency assistance. A rapid nutrition assessment in November-December in Karakalpakstan showed low levels of acute malnutrition (2.6 percent of children under 5 with MUAC<13.5cm), but quite a bit of chronic malnutrition compared to the NCHS/CDC reference (15.4 percent).

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