FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 02/01 - YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (13 February)

The outlook for winter wheat, to be harvested later this year, has improved somewhat but remains uncertain. The drought, which sharply reduced the 2000 cereal harvest, continued into the autumn, delaying the planting of winter wheat and hindering crop establishment. The Farming Institute of Novi Sad, situated in the Voyvodina, the major producing area, indicates that despite the poor economic conditions of farmers, some 750 000 hectares were finally planted to winter wheat. This is less than planned – 800 000 hectares – but, if true, would be more than was actually sown and harvested last year (roughly 600 000 ha) and closer to average. Better rains and mild temperatures since late December have improved the outlook but subsoil moisture reserves remain precarious. Disruption in the administrative systems governing agriculture and shortages of funds at all levels in the sector will keep input use, and likely yields, well below potential.

FAO estimates the aggregate 2000 cereal harvest at only 5.2 million tonnes compared to 8.6 million tonnes in 1999. An assessment mission in June/July put the 2000 wheat harvest at only 1.7 million tonnes, reflecting poor incentives to sow wheat, limited availability of inputs, crop damage by floods and later dry conditions. Severe drought in the spring and summer reduced spring coarse grain and other foodcrop harvests. The 2000 maize harvest is officially estimated at only 3.1 million tonnes, about half of the bumper 6.1 million tonne harvest in 1999.

The overall cereal supply situation is tight and there is little or no scope for exports of cereals, despite substantial carry-forward stocks, particularly of maize. Livestock production will be adversely affected by the rising prices of grain.

The population continues to suffer from shortages of energy and sharp price increases for basic foods, since the new government has started liberalizing the formerly controlled prices.

WFP is currently targeting about 700 000 refugees and socially vulnerable people. In addition the ICRC assists 200 000 IDPs with an individual food ration and 100 000 beneficiaries (social cases) through a hot meal under their soup kitchen programme.

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