FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/01 - EC (3 April)
In the EC, latest indications continue point to an overall reduction in cereal area for the 2001 harvest, largely reflecting a significant contraction in the winter sown soft wheat area. The main reductions in the soft wheat area are reported in France and the United Kingdom. In Italy, while the soft wheat area is expected to fall sharply, the area dedicated to the more important durum wheat is forecast to remain relatively unchanged from the previous year. In Spain, although final data is not yet available, the wheat area is tentatively estimated to be down by about 5 percent from the previous year due to heavy rains during the main planting period. Also in Portugal, heavy rains have caused a significant drop in the wheat area. Assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, aggregate wheat output in the EC in 2001 is tentatively forecast at 101 million tonnes, down by about 4 percent from the bumper crop in 2000 but still above the average of the past five years. For coarse grains, much will depend on the outcome of spring/summer planting, which is only just starting. Early indications suggest that the area dedicated to the main feed grains such as barley and maize may expand in anticipation of increased demand from the feed industry following the ban on the use of meat and bone meal. However, assuming a return to normal yields after last year�s bumper levels, the EC�s overall output of coarse grains in 2001 is tentatively forecast at about 107 million tonnes, 2 percent down from 2000. Preparations for the Community�s 2001 rice crop are underway but planting intentions are uncertain.
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